wxgeek's weather-The Thaw Begins This Week-update 12/11

Update Wed Dec 11

Very nice winter day across the state today. Yes, winter begins Dec 1 for meteorological purposes despite the winter solstice begining Dec 21. Short wave upper ridge moving over CO today and Thursday, which will increase temps under mostly sunny skies. A weak short wave upper trough will pass over CO Friday, which will bring a chance for snow in the mountains Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Only very light accumulations expected along and west of the Divide, while eastern CO remains dry but with slightly cooler temps Friday and Saturday, yet still close to seasonal norms.

Upper ridge builds along the West Coast Sunday into next week which will keep a brisk northwest flow aloft over CO. This will keep conditions dry, mild and breezy Sunday into next Wednesday with temps above seasonal norms, and gusty westerly winds at times. Models continue to suggest another big change late next week. Similar to last week, upper ridge retrogrades in the eastern Pacific and allows a strong upper trough/low to move south from western Canada into the Great Basin and allow arctic air to push south once again. It is very likely that the track, intensity and timing of this system will shift over the next few days, but using current model forecast, arctic front and snow would move into CO next Thursday afternoon, and remain snowy and cold statewide Friday into Saturday. Temps would be similar to last week if models are correct. However, lots of different scenarios could emerge from models from digging the system farther west and slowing eastward progression, to skirting system farther to our east. Will have to wait and see how things evolve, but if anyone is planning travel late next week, stay tuned to weather forecast as travel could be impacted. Not only in CO, but as system moves east, it has the potential to create a true travel nightmare from the Plains to the East Coast from next Friday into the following Monday before xmas. As this would be a very busy travel weekend, this system could cause significant travel impacts, especially east of the Mississippi. I'm currently very glad I am staying put in CO over the Holidays.

For xmas week, models currently keep cold temps over CO with chances for snow, mostly in the mountains, during the week.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Tue Dec 10

Windy conditions in the foothills will subside this afternoon, but remain windy farther west over the High Country. Exposed areas (such as US 285 through South Park) may experience blowing and drifting snow issues into this evening. Winds will calm down statewide on Wednesday, with temps returning to seasonal normal readings under mostly sunny skies. Further warming expected on Thursday.

Weak system will pass to our north Friday which will bring a chance for light snow to the mountains west of the Divide, mostly north of I-70 and bring slightly cooler temps back to the state. The weekend looks dry with temps back at or slightly above seasonal norms statewide.

For next week, upper ridge has moved into the Eastern Pacific just off the West Coast. This has moved the jet stream farther north and will keep storms to our north early next week and temps mild, while keeping an active storm track across the Great Lakes and East Coast with cold temps. Models suggest upper ridge will move slightly farther west late next week, which may allow another cold system from western Canada to move south into CO late next week into next weekend, with yet another arctic surge possible early the following week (of xmas). Still too early to bank on this happening, but with a meridional pattern in place (large north to south flow aloft), this is certainly possible.

On the East Coast, winter weather once again impacting travel across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, mid Atlantic states and Northeast. With the busy air travel season upon us, airlines having a tough time catching up from recent cancelled flight with today's disruptions. More winter weather expected in the East this weekend.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Mon Dec 9

Quick update to highlight the potential for some strong westerly winds to develop late this afternoon and persist overnight into Tuesday morning in the foothills. Wind speeds of 15-35 mph possible with gusts to 50 mph which could cause some blowing and drifting of recent snow.

Otherwise, slow warming trend will continue this week with temps back near seasonal norms by Wednesday. Weak system will pass to our north on Friday which may produce some mountain snow (west of the Divide) and cool temps slightly east of the Divide. Dry conditions east of the Divide expected to persist through next week. Extended range models suggest next precip chance will be Sat Dec 21 for the foothills and plains.

More snow and freezing rain expected along the East Coast today into Tuesday which may cause some travel issues from the Carolinas north to New England. Another winter storm on tap for this weekend along the Ohio Valley, eastern Great Lakes and East Coast.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

bump for 12/10 update

Bump for 12/11 update