wxgeek's weather-Cooler/light snow -Update 12/23

Update Mon Dec 23

Snow over northeast plains of CO and the mountains will diminish through the day today. A lee side surface trough will develop by this afternoon and coupled with strong northwest flow aloft, the mountains and foothills will see gusty west to northwest winds of 20-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph possible from this afternoon into Tuesday morning. Chinook winds will keep temps mild overnight. On Tuesday, another disturbance from the northwest will skirt to our north, but will have enough dynamics to bring a chance for more snow to the central and northern mountains during the day into Tuesday evening, maybe 1-2 inches of additional accumulation. There will be a slight chance for some flurries across the foothills and Palmer Divide Tuesday afternoon and evening, but nothing beyond a dusting currently expected.

Wednesday through Saturday look dry and mild statewide as upper ridge builds into the western U.S. Some gusty westerly winds possible at times, especially Friday into Saturday. A cold front is expected to move into eastern CO late Saturday bringing cooler temps east of the Divide with a chance for some low clouds and light snow from the foothills east on Sunday. Little if any accumulation expected. Temps warm early next week as upper ridge remains dominant across the western U.S. Next chance for precip looks to be New Years Day, but models very uncertain about that, so would count on anything. In general, upper level pattern keeps a ridge over the western U.S. with a trough over the eastern U.S. into early January. This keeps the West mostly dry and mild, while the Great Lakes and Northeast remain cold and snowy.

For holiday travelers, snow will move across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. Only folks in WI and MI would see any travel impacts, rest of the country will be fairly tranquil. No significant storms expected across the country through New Years Day at this time. Areas of the Northeast and Great Lakes struggling with ice and snow from recent storm, while tornadoes and rain caused some issues across the South and Tennessee Valley.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Sun Dec 22

A happy winter solstice to everyone, longer days from now til June. CO remain under northwest flow aloft, with upper ridge to our west in the eastern Pacific and upper trough over the eastern U.S. A disturbance will move across CO today which will increase snow chances across the central and northern mountains where a Winter Weather Advisory is in place, and like yesterday, foothills and plains will see chances for light snow again this afternoon into tonight. Mountains west of the Divide could see an additional 3-7 inches, while east of the Divide looks like from a dusting to an inch or two again. Best chances for snow will remain north of I-70, but could extend south to the Palmer Divide. Some lingering flurries possible on Monday over the northern mountains, dry elsewhere with temps near seasonal norms.

By Monday night, gusty westerly winds will be possible across the foothills with speeds in the 15-35 mph range and gusts to 50 mph which will keep temps relatively warm Monday night. A very weak disturbance expected to clip CO on Tuesday, bringing some light snow to the central and northern mountains, but dry elsewhere. Xmas day through Saturday expected to be dry and mild statewide, with temps above seasonal norms, and gusty westerly winds at times.

Next chance for precip looks to be next Sunday as system from the northwest moves across CO, with best chances for snow east of the Divide and cooler temps. Only light accumulations expected at this time. Beyond that, mostly dry through New Years. Extended range models vacillating with a system on New Years Day. This upper level pattern will keep the eastern U.S. cool and wet, especially the Great Lakes and Northeast.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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- Update Fri Dec 20

Cool and cloudy day on the plains and Urban Corridor, sunny above the cloud deck in the foothills which is around 7000-7500 ft. Some snow in the mountains today west of the Divide, diminishing by this evening. Amounts look to remain pretty light, around 1-4 inches. A new system from the northwest will increase snow in the mountains Saturday during the day, with some snow moving east to the foothills and adjacent plains Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Currently looks like 2-5 cinhes west of the Divide, maybe a dusting to an inch or two for the foothills and Urban Corridor. Some lingering flurries to persist into Sunday afternoon mostly west of the Divide. Temps will remain below seasonal norms through Sunday.

For next week, temps warm Monday and Tuesday under dry conditions and some gusty westerly winds likely to develop late Monday into Tuesday. Tuesday evening a weak cold front will move through CO cooling temps, but latest models very stingy with moisture, so outside of a few isoltaed flurries, do not expect much snow xmas eve or xmas day statewide. For the remainder of the week into next weekend, temps look to remain near seasonal norms and no precip expected statewide. Models keep CO under a dry northwest flow aloft basically through the end of the year, so currently do not expect much snow through New Years Day.

Snow currently moving through the Great Lakes and Northeast, while rain developing over TX associated with southern upper low. No significant airport delays from weather across the country today. This may change Saturday as system develops and spreads heavy rain with thunderstorms across much of the Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and New England. Snow is expected to be confined to the upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes and northern New England into Sunday morning. Biggest impact likelt to be at Chicago where 2-6 inches of snow is possible Saturday into Sunday morning. Damaging thunderstorms with tornadoes will be possible Saturday over the lower Mississippi Valley moving into the Southeast Saturday night into Sunday, so some delays possible as thunderstroms interact with major terminals such as MSY, MEM, BNA, CVG and ATL. Conditions expected to remain cold and snowy through XMAS over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Thu Dec 19

We should wave goodbye to our warm temps for a while. Cold front is expected to move south through eastern CO this afternoon and evening. Some upslope flow will develop behind the front which will usher in low clouds and some light snow to the Urban Corridor and foothills. Snow amounts will be very light, from some flakes to a dusting for most areas, maybe 1-2 inches in some areas mostly north of I-70. Heavier snow will develop west of the Divide tonight and persist through most of Friday, with maybe 2-5 inches possible. A second disturbance will move down from the northwest which will bring good chances for snow west of the Divide on Saturday, with some snow possible spilling east into the foothills and Urban Corridor Saturday afternoon and evening. For the mountains, an additional 2-5 inches possible, while another dusting to perhaps in inch or so possible for the foothills and Urban Corridor. Some additional flurries possible on Sunday, mostly central and northern mountains. Should remain dry east of the Divide on Sunday. Temps will remain at or below seasonal norms from this afternoon through Sunday.

For xmas week, temps will warm back to or slightly above seasonal norms Monday and Tuesday under dry conditions statewide. Some gusty westerly winds will be possible both days along the foothills. Xmas eve a weak disturbance will move down from the northwest creating a chance for some light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Only very light accumulations expected at this time and best chances will be areas north of I-70. Temps will remain near seasonal norms under dry conditions the remainder of next week into next weekend.

For travelers, decent snow across the Northern Plains today moving into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Friday and into the Northeast Friday afternoon/evening. Impacted airports could be MSP, ORD, DTW, CLE and BUF. On Saturday, heavy rain and thunderstorms, with some severe will move across the southern Plains and into the Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Tornadoes and flooding will be possible in this area. By Saturday night and Sunday system moves northeast into the Great Lakes and Northeast. Snow looks to be confined to the Great Lakes and upper New England, while heavy rain and thunderstorms will move across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic region Sunday. Impacted airports could be ORD, DTW, CLE, PIT, BNA and ATL. Currently looks to be minimal disruptions outside Chicago, where impacts could be bigger due to snow.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 12/20 update

Bump for 12/22 Update

Bump for 12/23 Update