wxgeek's weather-Weather Outlook for Jan 5-12-Update 1/9

Update Thu Jan 9

Nice start to the day across the state. Next in the series of fast moving disturbances aloft will bring snow to the High Country this afternoon and persist overnight. Some moderate to heavy snow across the central and northern mountains with this system along with stronger westerly winds, so travel across the High Country will be difficult this afternoon into Friday morning. 6-12 inches of snow possible through Friday afternoon. East of the Divide, not much snow expected, but lots of wind. Snow may creep east into the western foothills this evening and tonight, but not much outside a dusting expected. Strong west to northwest winds will develop tonight across the High Country and foothills with speeds of 20-45 mph and gusts to 60 mph possible. Snow likely to persist west of the Divide through Friday evening, and winds will remain strong most of the day Friday in the foothills.

For Saturday, temps warm considerable and conditions will be mostly dry statewide. Winds will remain breezy, but not as strong as Friday. Temps likely to be 10-15 degrees above seasonal norms. Next upstream system will clip CO Saturday night into Sunday. Snow will increase west of the Divide Saturday night and persist into Sunday evening with another 5-10 inches possible. Associated cold front moves through CO during the day on Sunday, so temps will be some 10-20 degrees colder than Saturday. Once again, not much, if any, snow likely east of the Divide, but some may creep into the western foothills with nothing more than a dusting expected Saturday night into Sunday. By Sunday, westerly winds become very strong in a Bora wind event (post frontal). This will once again cause very difficult travel in the High Country, and winds could become damaging in the foothills and adjacent plains. West to northwest winds of 20-50 mph will be common on Sunday, and winds could increase Sunday night into the 60-80 mph range, which could cause downed trees and power outages.

For next week, upper ridge moves east into the Great basin which will keep CO dry and mild, with temps 10-20 degrees above seasonal norms much of the week. Winds will remain gusty Monday and Tuesday, then diminish later in the week. Conditions look to remain dry and mild into next weekend, so good news if the Broncos move on. Long range models are beginning to suggest a major upper level pattern shift towards the end of January. Upper ridge that has been so persistent along the west coast builds north into far northwestern Canada, and allows a zonal flow from the Pacific to undercut the ridge and bring storms onto the west coast. If this pattern change happens, it would imply some better snow chances for CO, especially the southwest mountains and foothills as Pacific moisture is allowed to move directly into CO. This usually brings warmer systems with higher moisture content in the snow, which could also cause significant avalanche issues in the High Country. Since areas east of the Divide are now so far behind normal snowfall, this would be a welcome change. Will have to wait and see if it actually happens.

For NFL playoff weekend:

Seattle - a rainy and windy game on tap Saturday afternoon. Rain, heavy at times with southwest winds of 20-40 mph likely during the game. Temps in the mid to upper 40's.

New England - Rain and wind also expected Saturday night in New England. Rain, heavy at times with southerly winds of 15-30 mph likely during the game. Temps in the upper 40's and lower 50's.

Carolina - Should be beautiful weather Sunday in Carolina. Temps in the upper 50's to low 60's and light winds.

Denver - Dry conditions expected Sunday afternoon, but west to northwest winds of 20-30 mph will be likely with temps in the mid to lower 40's during the game.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Wed Jan 8

Some technical issues posting while at work, so hopefully the tech team will get this sorted out for me.

CO currently under northwest flow aloft with several disturbances posed to sweep across the state through the weekend. Vast majority or precip will remain on the west side of the Divide under this regime. Snow moves into western CO this afternoon into tonight with 1-4 inches expected. should remain dry east of the Divide. Snow abates some Thu then a stronger disturbance moves in late Thu, so snow increases Thu afternoon west of the Divide and becomes heavy at times Thu night into Fri morning with 6-12 inches possible west of the Divide. Some snow likely to make it east to the front Range crest and slight chance to the foothills and urban corridor. Only a dusting if any snow expected for the foothills Thu night into Fri morning. Big event for the foothills will be wind Fri into early next week. Westerly winds of 20-45 mph possible Fri into Sat. Next system will move into western CO Sat night into Sunday with another 4-8 inches possible west of the Divide along with strong westerly winds. Snow not expected to make it much east of the Divide with only a slight chance for another dusting in the foothills. More wind however Sun into Tue of next week. We could see High Wind criteria for some of this period with wind speeds of 60-80 mph possible. Temps Sat look very mild, but cooler on Sunday. Dry and mild conditions expected next week statewide as upper ridge moves east into the Great Basin. Unless something changes, Jan expected to be another dry month fore the foothills and plains.

For NFL fans, playoff weather looks wet and windy for Sat games in Seattle bands New England. Sunday games look much nicer in Carolina and Denver. Gusty westerly winds possible Sun in Denver but temps in the 40's expected.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Sun Jan 5

Cold day with light snow across much of CO as arctic air moves into eastern CO. It could be much worse however, wind chills of -60F currently exist across the Dakotas, and will move over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes Monday. You know it's cold when the state of Minnesota cancels school statewide on Monday. Closer to home, light snow will persist into this evening across much of the state, but little additional accumulation expected outside of 1-2 inches in the mountains. Bitter cold will persist into Monday morning with temps near zero tonight, and wind chill values down to -20 to -30F. For the mountains and foothills, gusty northwest winds expected to develop this afternoon into Monday morning as strong northwest winds aloft mix down to about 8000 ft. Wind speeds of 15-35 mph with higher gusts possible, which will cause blowing and drifting of recent snow, reducing visibility, moving snow onto roads, and creating dangerous wind chill values.

Conditions expected to greatly improve Monday statewide with warmer temps by afternoon. Tuesday through Thursday looks mostly dry and mild east of the Divide, while some snow possible west of the Divide on Wednesday. On Friday, a more vigorous upper trough will bring snow to western CO Thursday night into Friday, with snow possible east of the Divide on Friday. Saturday looks dry and mild statewide, but another upper disturbance from the northwest will bring snow west of the Divide Sunday afternoon, and bring snow chances east of the Divide Sunday night into Monday morning.

Models suggest upper level pattern remains unchanged into mid to late January with upper ridge along the west coast and upper trough over the eastern U.S. which will keep the Great Lakes and Northeast cold and snowy.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 1/8 update

Bump for 1/9 update