wxgeek's weather-Brief Taste of Winter This Week-Update 1/22

Update Wed Jan 22

Nice start to the day today. Cold front has pushed south into eastern CO to near the Palmer Divide as of Noon today. It will take a while before low clouds and snow develop behind front as lift will be aided by upper level disturbance to our west. Snow expected to develop late this afternoon across the northeast plains and move into the Metro area and foothills between 6 pm and 9 pm. Mostly light snow, but moderate at times, will push south and persist overnight into Thursday morning mostly east of the Divide. Snow should end between 6 am and 9 am north of the Palmer Divide, but continue across southern and southwest CO into Thursday afternoon and evening. Snow amounts still expected to be in the 1/2 to 2 inch range across the plains, and 1-3 inches for the Urban Corridor, foothills and Palmer Divide with up to 4 inches possible in favored areas. Roads expected to be a mess Thursday morning for the commute, with ice underneath snow and ice packed roads all over the foothills and Urban Corridor as temps will plummet into the single digits and teens by Thursday morning. Sun will appear Thursday afternoon and help primary roads melt and become mostly dry by the evening commute, side roads could still be snow and ice packed.

Gusty westerly winds expected to develop by Friday morning and breezy conditions expected to persist Friday with temps warming back to near seasonal norms. Some blowing and drifting of snow will be possible Friday. Weekend weather looking mostly sunny and mild statewide with temps above seasonal norms. Dry cold front may push into eastern CO late Sunday, so temps Monday back closer to seasonal norms. Models still uncertain on weather for mid to late next week. Runs are vacillating between dry and mild to mostly cloudy with precip chances. So would leave slight chance for precip statewide mid to late next week, but will need til the weekend to refine the forecast.

East coast digging out from up to 18 inches of snow, travel still a mess. More snow and cold expected this weekend into next week. For the Super Bowl, latest model guidance has snow moving into the area next Saturday, then cold and breezy on Sunday for the game. Obviously with snow so close to Sunday, forecast could change.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Tue Jan 21

Warm and breezy day today, with winds beginning to die down in the foothills, but gusty northerly winds will persist on eastern plains into this evening. Wednesday should start out nice, but cold front will move south from WY into eastern CO late Wednesday afternoon and plunge south Wednesday night. Upslope flow will develop behind front and bring low clouds and snow to northeast CO by Wednesday evening moving south to I-70 by 6-9 pm and to the Palmer Divide by 9 pm - midnight. Snow and upslope flow will only affect areas east of the Divide and generally below 10,000 ft as the push of cold air is associated with High pressure moving south into the Great Plains. Snow will persist overnight with heaviest snow between midnight and 9 am, then snow begins to lighten up by late morning, and dissipate after noon. Snow amounts still look to be in the 1/2 to 2 inch range east of I-25, with 1-4 inches possible west of I-25 into the foothills. Temps will be much colder behind front Wednesday night into Thursday. With recent warm temps, it is likely initial snow will melt on pavement, especially at lower elevations, and then have snow form on top, so driving late Wednesday night into Thursday morning could be very slick with ice forming underneath snow on many roads. Commute on Thursday morning could be very slow and treacherous. Thursday evening commute should be much better, with roads mostly dry or wet/slush in spots.

By Friday we return to our dry and mild pattern that will persist into early next week with breezy westerly winds at times. Looks like a chance for precip across western CO next week Wednesday, then dry and mild into early February as upper ridge remains planted along the west coast. Next shot at precip looks to be the middle of the following week, Feb 4-5.

East coast being slammed by another winter storm today with up to a foot of snow along many areas from DC north to Boston. Thousands of flights cancelled and some areas shut down completely. As the upper level pattern remains locked, expect more of these systems to affect the midwest, Great Lakes and East Coast the next 2 weeks. As for Super Bowl Sunday, latest models now have cold, breezy but dry weather, but snow will hit the area before and after, so as models evolve, systems could impact the area on Super Bowl Sunday, too early to predict with any accuracy.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Mon Jan 20

Another splendid day across the state with temps slightly cooler in the wake of a dry cold front. Tuesday and Wednesday should remain dry and mild statewide with temps above seasonal norms. By Wednesday night, a weak disturbance will slide down the east side of upper ridge along the west coast and push a cold front into eastern CO. This will bring much cooler temps along with some upslope flow across eastern CO that will push west to the Front Range Crest up to about 10,000 ft. The system will also bring some light snow to eastern CO that will begin Wednesday night between 6 pm to midnight and persist into Thursday around Noon. Snow amounts will be light, generally in the trace to 2 inch range, with perhaps up to 3 inches in favored areas of the foothills. Since this system moves in overnight, roads likely to be snow and ice packed at higher elevations with slush and wet roads at lower elevations for the Thursday morning commute, so expect a slower Thursday morning drive. Skies should begin to clear by Thursday afternoon, so the return commute Thursday evening should be fine.

Later this week, upper ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest which will keep all storms well to our north and east for a while. Conditions expected to remain dry and mild into the weekend and persist into much of next week. Models not quite sure whether the upper ridge will remain along the west coast or move by the end of this month. Latest models bring some precip chances into CO late next week into next weekend, but the overall upper ridge appears to remain in place along the west coast, which is not good news for additional precip for CO.

Although it is still very far in the future, initial look at weather at the Super Bowl currently looks quite miserable, with a significant system affecting much of the Northeast on Super Bowl Sunday. The good news is that long range models are usually wrong, but with the current upper level pattern expected to remain in place, such a scenario is not all that unlikely. Tuesday into Wednesday of this week will see yet another snowstorm for the mid Atlantic and Northeast causing more travel issues. Over the next 2 weeks, cold and snow expected to persist across much of the Great Lakes and Northeast, while the West remains mostly dry and mild.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Tues 1/21 Update

Bump for 1/22 update