wxgeek's weather-Snow Forecast for the Next Week-Update 2/2

Sun Feb 2 :TD: :GoDenver:

What a gorgous day to wake up to, sun and lots of snow everywhere, suppose this is how I like winter to look. A break today, but more snow and cold will impact most of CO during the coming week.

Next upper level trough will move down from the northwest and begin to bring snow to western CO Monday morning. Snow will push east Monday evening and night into the foothills and plains with snow persistsing most of the day Tuesday into Wednesday morning. An arctic push of air will move down into the Central Plains Tuesday and bring much colder temps to eastern CO Tuesday and Wednesday with continued upslope flow, keeping light snow and low clouds across most of eastern CO into the foothills. Snow will generally be light for most of this time, with some brief bouts of moderate snow. For the period Monday morning through Wednesday morning, amounts look like this:

Northern Mountains: 3-7 inches
Central and Southwest Mountains: 5-12 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 2-6 inches
Urban Corridor and plains: 1-4 inches

Upslope flow will continue across eastern CO Wednesday and Thursday, keeping temps well below seasonal norms and the chance for light snow ongoing. Next system to affect CO will begin bringing snow to western CO Thursday. Models still vascilating whether this system will dig farther south and bring a good upslope system or have the upper trough remain farther north and only provide light snow amounts. In general, snow moves into western CO, with snow moving into eastern CO by late Friday into Saturday. This system has the potential to be a more significant snow maker, but still too early to tell which way it will go, but in general residents should be prepared for a week of cold temps with snow possible most days, so roads will be snow packed and slick for much of the coming week. The following week model suggest and upper ridge will build back in over the western U.S. which would limit snow chances to mostly the mountains and temps would warm. I am hoping models are not correct and the storm track will remain open for CO.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Fri Jan 31

In general, 2-6 inches of snow fell over the Urban Corridor and plains, with 5-12 inches in the foothills. For the mountains, last 48 hours have seen 6-12 inches in the southwest mountains with 18-36 inches over the central and northern mountains. Nice high water content snow for water purposes, more spring like snow than January snow. Very dangerous avalanche conditions currently exist in the mountains, with many mountain roads remaining closed. The primary push of snow has now moved east and south, but there will be some additional snow this afternoon into Saturday. Currently looks like an additional 2-5 inches will be possible for the foothills from this afternoon into Saturday morning, with 6-12 inches possible for the southwest and central mountains, with 3-8 inches for the northern mountains. Along the Urban Corridor, perhaps 1-3 inches will be possible. Saturday will see mostly cloudy skies with some flurries possible in the afternoon and evening hours. Currently only expect less than an inch of additional snow Saturday for the foothills and plains, with maybe 1-3 more inches in the mountains.

Skies finally clear Sunday with temps below seasonal norms statewide. This will be a brief break as next system will move snow into western CO Monday afternoon, with snow spreading east into the foothills and plains by Monday night into Tuesday night. Amounts for this system look lighter, with perhaps 3-8 inches for the mountains, and 2-6 inches for the foothills and 1-4 inches for the plains. This system will be colder with some arctic air mixing into eastern CO Tuesday and Wednesday. Next system will follow closely behind, with snow moving into western CO Thursday and spreading east by Friday. This system has the potential to be more significant, with the potential for a nice upslope system for eastern CO Friday and Saturday. Next Sunday looks mostly dry and cool. More snow in the forecast for the following week.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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A couple of inches of snow overnight above 7000 ft with 6-12 inches in the mountains. Very moist flow from the Pacific will continue across CO through Saturday. Snowfall will be nearly continuous in the mountains, and will come in 3 separate surges for the foothills and plains. vast majority of snow in eastern CO will fall along and north of the Palmer Divide. Heaviest snow in the mountains will be in the central and northern mountains.

Heavy snow in the mountains will push east into eastern CO this afternoon into tonight. First surge into eastern CO will bring heaviest snow north of I-70 this evening, and sag south to the Palmer Divide overnight. Snow will begin to diminish Friday morning, with some partial clearing by late Friday morning into early afternoon. Second surge of snow will begin Friday late afternoon and persist into Saturday morning, with third surge Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Each subsequent surge will have less snowfall, so heaviest snow will be Thursday evening into Friday morning. Winter Storm Warning in effect for most of CO now. Models still differ on snow amounts, but here is my forecast from this afternoon through Saturday night:

Northern and Central Mountains: 12-24 inches
Southwest Mountains: 10-20 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 6-14 inches
Urban Corridor and Plains: 4-10 inches

This system is not a classic upslope system. It has moisture streaming east off the Pacific into CO associated with a 150 knot jet stream aloft, combined with a cold front moving south from WY. Hence, winds aloft remain westerly during this event, with only very shallow upslope flow over the plains and lower foothills. The implication is that western slopes will be favored for snowfall, and the Banana Belt could receive as much snow as normally favored foothill areas. Heavy snow will also be banded in nature, so depending on where bands set up will determine areas that get the heaviest snow. These bands are usually oriented along the jet stream aloft. Snow level this evening should be around 5000-6000 ft, so mostly wet roadways below 7000 ft until later tonight. Snow level lowers to plains level overnight and remains there into Saturday. Snow should end state wide by Sunday morning, with mostly sunny skies and cool temps Super Bowl Sunday. Travel throughout the state will be difficult from tonight into Saturday. Road delays and closures likely in the mountains, with snow and ice packed roads elsewhere. Some melting expected during the day on Friday, and again Saturday, but slick overnight each day. Avalanche danger will be very high in the mountains this weekend with wet and heavy snow falling on top of an ice packed base. Anyone venturing in the back country should be well prepared for adverse conditions. Anyone traveling in the mountains should gave a shovel and survival kit in the car, along with plenty of food and water.

As the upper ridge remains in the central Pacific and Alaska, storm door will remain open to bring systems from the Pacific into CO for the next 7-10 days. Snow should develop over western CO Monday afternoon and push east into eastern Co Monday night into Tuesday. Looks like 5-10 inches for the mountains with 3-8 inches for the foothills, 2-6 inches for the Urban Corridor and plains. Mostly dry and cool Wednesday, with next system bringing more snow Thursday into Saturday, break Sunday then more snow the following week.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 1/31 update