wxgeek's weather-Mtn Snow-Breezy/Warm Foothills-Update 2/11

Update Tue Feb 11

Warming temps and dry conditions across the state today. Temps making is mostly back near seasonal norms today. Upper ridge is building along the West Coast putting CO under brisk northwest flow aloft. Enough Pacific moisture in this flow to bring snow back to the central and northern mountains from tonight through Friday. Heaviest snow looks to be Wednesday night into Thursday, and highest amounts will be north of I-70. Looks like between 6 and 14 inches will fall between tonight and Friday evening. Snow level looks to be from 7000-8000 ft most of the period. East of the Divide, dry conditions with temps rising through the week. Temps generally 5-15 degrees above seasonal norms through Friday. As strong northwest winds aloft move over the state this week, mountains and higher foothills could see gusty northwest winds of 20-45 mph, mostly above 9000 to 10,000 ft.

Upper ridge is forecast to move over CO this weekend, so even warmer temps and dry statewide, with only isolated flurries for the northern mountains possible on Sunday. Temps 10-20 degrees above seasonal norms this weekend.

For next week, upper ridge flattens but will keep temps warm and conditions dry statewide Monday through Wednesday. Westerly winds could increase across CO by late Wednesday as next system approaches. Upper trough from the Pacific Northwest will move into the Great Basin on Wednesday, and move across CO on Friday. At the surface, lee side trough will develop late Wednesday into Thursday increasing westerly surface winds. Snow will move into western CO by Thursday afternoon spreading east to the Front Range crest by Friday morning, then into the foothills and plains Friday into Saturday. Current forecast track of this system is favorable for a decent upslope snow event for eastern CO, but will need to wait and see if models continue this track before getting too excited. Extended range models would keep CO dry next Sunday into the following Tuesday, then bring more snow chances Wednesday into the following weekend.

System bringing winter weather to much of the South is in two waves. First wave moved across the Southeast today with the second wave now in TX and OK that will move across the South tonight and into the Southeast Wednesday, before moving into the Atlantic and becoming a significant Nor'easter for the mid Atlantic states and Northeast Wednesday night into Thursday. Winter advisories, watches and warnings currently stretch from TX and OK across northern tier of Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas and into New England. Portions of the South could see from 4-8 inches of snow along with 1/4 to 3/4 inches of ice in areas. Atlanta is expected to be shut down tonight into Wednesday, with few if any flights expected to operate out of the nation's busiest airport. Portions of the Carolinas and western Virginia and Maryland expected to get 6-18 inches of snow, with similar amounts expected farther north from DC to Boston along with strong northeast winds and high surf and waves along the immediate coast, so major travel impacts expected across the mid Atlantic and Northeast Wednesday night into Thursday. Anyone planning travel to this region should monitor the situation carefully, as flight delays and cancellations will be in the thousands over the next 72 hours. This will likely have a ripple effect across the entire country for air travel.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Mon Feb 10

Upper level trough moving across CO today, so more snow in the mountains and a foggy start on the plains has turned to light snow in some areas. Light snow will persist across much of CO through this evening, then rapidly dissipate as system moves east. More on the impact of this system in areas east below. The remainder of the week in CO will feature more mountain snow Tuesday night through Friday with snow level 7000-8000 ft, and dry, breezy and mild for areas east of the Divide. Mountain areas have picked up 18-40 inches of snow past 72 hours which has prompted an avalanche warning for most mountain areas. Additional snow this week will be in the 5-10 inch range Tuesday through Friday, mostly central and northern mountains. Breezy and mild weather for the foothills and plains, with temps 10-15 degrees above seasonal norms. Upper ridge builds stronger and farther east by this weekend, so dry statewide this weekend with temps up to 20 degrees above seasonal norms. Upper ridge remains over CO early next week, so dry statewide with continued mild temps through next Wednesday. By Thursday, upper trough from the Pacific Northwest will begin to cool temps and increase snow chances statewide by Friday and continue through Saturday evening.

Wild winter weather this past weekend across the West, with up to 6 feet of snow reported in the Sierras, while areas in Oregon received 6-18 inches of snow from the coast to the Cascades, with Portland receiving 8 inches of snow. As our recent system heads east and combines with Gulf of Mexico moisture and cold air already in place, a nasty winter storm will affect much of the South and Southeast this week. Starting in the southern Plains tonight, then spreading east to the South and Southeast Tuesday and Wednesday, then into the mid Atlantic and Northeast Thursday. Areas of the South and Southeast could see 1-6 inches of snow and 0.1 to 0.5 inches of ice which will create a travel nightmare once again, specifically Atlanta will be very hard hit again. Anyone planning travel to the area should expect major travel issues with delays and many flight cancellations.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Fri Feb 7

Westerly flow aloft will spread Pacific moisture from the West Coast into CO from today through the weekend. Mountains will see near constant snow through Monday with the vast majority of snow remaining west of the Front Range crest. Areas along and west of the Divide will see 1-2 feet of snow through Monday, while the Front Range mountains will see 6-18 inches. In the foothills, we will remain mostly dry and breezy, with the chance some snow will make it far enough east mostly late Sunday into Monday. Currently looks like snow accumulations would be light, in the trace to 2 inch range for the foothills and Urban Corridor. A cold front will make it into eastern CO late Sunday into Monday and will make it easier for snow across the eastern plains where 1-2 inches may fall. Foothills will be battling westerly down slope winds, so harder for any significant snow. Winter Storm Warning is in effect from the Front Range Crest westward through Sunday evening. Snow will be accompanied by strong westerly winds of 25-50 mph, so blowing snow and reduced visibility will make travel tough in the mountains, with delays and closures possible. Westerly winds in the foothills will be in the 20-45 mph range from Friday into Sunday. Temps will be warmer as Pacific air replaces arctic air from earlier this week, so temps back near seasonal norms this weekend into next week. Snow level will be 5500-6500 ft today, rising to 6500-7500 ft Saturday and Sunday west of the Divide. Snow level lowers to plains level Sunday evening and Monday east of the Divide.

For next week, upper level pattern remains similar. Tuesday looks mostly dry statewide with temps near seasonal norms, then more Pacific moisture in store for the mountains west of the Divide Wednesday through next weekend. Central and Northern mountains will receive the majority of snow, with only light amounts south of I-70. Foothills remain mostly dry next week, breezy at times with temps at or above seasonal norms. Next chance for precip for the foothills looks to be next weekend, but only light amounts expected at this time. Pattern looks to remain in place the following week, so mountain snow possible with mostly dry and breezy conditions east of the Divide.

For anyone curious, Conifer Mountain snowfall through January was 44.5 inches, while normal snowfall is 73.0 inches, so we stand at 61% of normal snowfall through January. We ended up with 22 inches of snow in January thanks to our end of the month snow, finally above the average of 14.5 inches for the month. We still need a wet Spring to bring us closer to normal snowfall with Feb-Apr being the snowiest part of our season.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Can you define Front Range Crest? I think this is the first time I have ever heard that term.
Thanks

I'm just not as smart as you think I am.

I don't know the sure answer to that (I just relay wxgeek's weather here) but in talking to another weather friend of mine, they said it is the higher part of the mountains on the front range side of the divide.

And I know you are very smart....or maybe just psychic! :Eek:

Bump for 2/10 update

Bump for 2/11 update