wxgeek's weather-Windy/Mild, Snow Possible Later-Update 2/17

Mon Feb 17

A brief lull in the wind today after last night's howl, but winds are expected to pick up again later this afternoon and evening into Tuesday morning. NWS has issued another High Wind Warning from 4 pm Monday through 10 am Tuesday. Sustained westerly winds of 20-45 mph likely, with gusts in the 60-80 mph range possible. So more power outages possible tonight. In general, strong winds will be likely across much of CO through the weekend as the jet-stream remains close by.

Another fast moving upper level trough will move across CO late Wednesday into Thursday which will bring another cold front and similar conditions to Sunday night. Snow will increase Wednesday afternoon over western CO with snow level 6500-7500 ft. Cold front will push precip east through the foothills and plains Wednesday evening into Wednesday night with snow level lowering to plains level by midnight. Precip could again fall as rain with the front over the Metro area and plains. Mountains look to pick up 3-7 inches while the foothills should see less than 2 inches, and Urban Area and plains maybe a dusting to an inch. As with Sunday night, strong northwest winds aloft will follow the upper trough, so more strong westerly winds Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Temps will remain cool behind this system so blustery day on Thursday across the state with gusty westerly winds and temps below seasonal norms. Some snow in the mountains possible, but limited accumulations. Next upstream system will move quickly across CO on Friday bringing more snow to the mountains Thursday night into Friday evening. Some light snow possible into the foothills and adjacent plains on Friday, but accumulations look to be less than an inch.

The weekend looks mostly dry and breezy, with temps returning to near seasonal norms. Latest models suggest a cold front from the northeast will back into eastern CO Monday evening and bring a chance of snow from the Divide east into Tuesday afternoon. Any amounts look to be light, anywhere from 1-3 inches at this point with colder arctic air moving briefly into eastern CO. Temps quickly warm back to seasonal norms or above next week Tuesday through next weekend with dry conditions expected state wide as upper ridge build over the western U.S.

I have recorded 3 inches of snow so far in February, and it does not appear we will get much more through the end of the month. This is in stark contrast to last year when we received 53 inches of snow on Conifer Mountain in February, and the heavy snow continued into early May. With La Nina conditions returning to the Pacific, we may not be as fortunate this Spring which would lead to an early fire season. Still too early that will be a certainty, but planning ahead and being prepared is always a good idea.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Sun Feb 16

Fast moving upper trough will move over CO today and will bring a brief bout of moderate snow to the mountains late this afternoon into tonight. NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory from 5 pm to midnight as strong westerly winds will combine to make travel difficult. Generally 3-7 inches expected with snow pushing east to the Front Range Crest. Some spill over into the western foothills is possible this evening, but less than 1 inch accumulation expected, as many areas of the foothills will not see any snow. As upper trough passes strong northwest winds aloft will filter down to the surface to create a Bora wind event with northwest winds of 20-45 mph and gusts to 60 mph possible. Winds should die down by Monday morning.

For the rest of the week, upper trough will pass to our north Wednesday night and bring snow to the mountains Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Slight chance the foothills could see some light snow Wednesday night, but less than 1 inch expected. Another fast moving system from the northwest will pass to our north on Friday and bring some additional snow to the mountains Friday afternoon into Saturday morning, with a slight chance foothills could see light snow Friday evening/night. Temps will be cooler than normal Thursday into Sunday.

For the following week, mostly dry and mild conditions expected statewide. In general, not much snow is forecast through the end of February across CO. Long range models suggest some chances towards the end of February, but that far out is not very accurate. Latest ENSO analysis indicates that conditions in the Pacific have shifted from Neutral to weak La Nina conditions with the ONI around -1.0. The weather pattern the past month has seemed much more La Nina like, with mountain snow and mostly dry and breezy in the foothills. Not certain what the indications are for our Spring with La Nina conditions, as we have seen snowy March and April periods as well as very dry conditions in March and April with La Nina conditions. We will need a very snowy March and April if we are to come close to normal snowfall this season.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Friday Feb 14

High Wind Warning has been issued by the NWS for the foothills from 8 pm Friday through Noon Saturday. Strong northwest winds aloft will combine with a good mountain wave profile to create strong downslope winds in the foothills. Westerly winds of 25-50 mph likely with gusts to 80 mph possible. This may create blowing and drifting snow and adverse driving conditions, especially along US 285 through South park and CO 93. Mountains will continue to receive additional snow through Saturday afternoon as moist Pacific flow continues into CO. This has created very dangerous avalanche conditions that will persist into the weekend. Snow and wind should diminish by Saturday afternoon.

Another weak system will move across CO Sunday afternoon and night. Fast moving system will bring snow to the mountains and more wind to the foothills. Snow likely to push east to the Front Range Crest Sunday night, with some snow into the western foothills, but mostly another strong wind event for the foothills Sunday night. Mountains could see another 3-7 inches of snow with strong winds creating difficult travel conditions Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

Mostly mild and dry across the state next Monday through Wednesday. Some snow possible across the northern mountains Wednesday night into Thursday. Models are vacillating on a potential significant storm for eastern CO late next week. Some models runs suggesting an upper trough will dig into the Southwest then move across northern NM and southern CO which would produce a nice upslope snow event for eastern CO. Other models keep the system farther north and move it through faster, so will need to wait and see how model solutions come together for this system. I will keep my fingers crossed that we end up with a good upslope system as the foothills and plains are far below average for snowfall this year.

The Southeast and East are thawing and digging out from this weeks mega winter storm, and yes, it had a name, Pax. Many people still without power and airlines will begin to get back to a normal schedule today, but still lots of stranded travelers. Nature has no sympathy, as another winter blast will hit from the Southeast to mid Atlantic region and Northeast tonight into Saturday, dropping more snow and ice on a region trying to recover. Many east coast cities are nearly double their annual snow totals for the season right now. Spring cannot come too early for many residents from the Great Lakes to East Coast and Southeast.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Feb 16 Update

Bump for Feb 17th Update