wxgeek's weather-More wind w/some snow this week-Update 2/20

Update Thu Feb 20

Wind, wind and more wind. Seems to be the pattern this year. About 4-9 inches of snow past 24 hours central and northern mountains, less southwest mountains. NWS has issued a High Wind Warning for the foothills from 9 pm tonight through 9 am Friday for westerly winds of 25-50 mph with gusts to 75 mph possible. Very strong northwest winds aloft will be over CO through Sunday, so even though warnings may not be in effect the entire time, strong westerly winds will be likely across the foothills from today into Sunday. Mountains will continue to receive mostly orthographic snow on west facing slopes through Saturday evening with 1-3 inches possible each day. Some increase of snow chances for northeast CO will exist Saturday night into Sunday morning, but any accumulation would be less than 1 inch. Temps will remain at or below seasonal norms through Sunday as well.

For next week, models continue to suggest another arctic outbreak will occur over the central and eastern U.S. For most of the week CO will be on the western edge, with only minor intrusions of cold air into the far northeast plains. By Thursday, models suggest CO will see a more robust intrusion of arctic air that will combine with some mid level moisture from the Pacific to bring snow chances to most of the state. Cold air east of the Divide, Pacific air west of the Divide with snow level 6000-7000 ft. This snow could persist into Friday. Then an upper level trough is expected to move from CA into CO by Saturday bringing some potentially heavy snow to the mountains and snow to eastern CO late Saturday into Sunday. Additional snow chances are possible the following week according to long range models.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Wed Feb 19

System is approaching CO from the west with some showers beginning to develop west of Vail Pass this afternoon. Precip will increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon into this evening with snow level 6500-7500 ft. Westerly winds will pick up in the foothills in advance of this system, then cold front will push through the foothills and Urban Corridor around 4-7 pm with precip developing along and behind front. Snow level initially around 7000 ft at 6 pm lowering to plains level by 10 pm-midnight. Mountains will receive a good dose of snow and wind with 4-10 inches expected along and west of the Front Range Crest. For the foothills, winds remain westerly so only a trace to 2 inches expected for most foothill areas, and less than 1 inch across the Urban Corridor. Farther east on the plains areas could see 1-3 inches of snow away from downsloping winds. As temps fall well below freezing overnight, roads could become icy for the morning commute. Much of the initial snow below 8000 ft likely to melt on roads, then re-freeze overnight. Strong northwest winds will develop behind system with wind speeds of 20-45 mph likely and gusts to 60 mph possible from tonight all the way into Friday night. Temps will be much cooler behind front as colder air remains in place through this weekend, so temps at or below seasonal norms through Sunday. Mountain snow will continue Thursday into Saturday with a few inches of additional accumulation possible each day mostly along and west of the Divide. Sunday looks less windy, warmer and mostly dry statewide.

For next week, models build an Omega Block into the Northwest Territory of western Canada, which brings very cold arctic air on the east side down into the central U.S. This push of arctic air begins Monday and is reinforced into next Friday, so another round of very cold temps for much of the central and eastern U.S. next week. CO appears to remain on the western edge of this arctic air, so areas of eastern CO could see colder temps early next week, but we don't look to get the frigid air at this time until late next week. Models indicate a push of arctic air will move into CO next Thursday night into Saturday morning. Some light upslope snow would be possible from the Front Range crest eastward if this happens. Then models suggest an upper level trough would move over CO next weekend, so additional snow chances statewide next weekend. This scenario could change, as models have just begun to latch onto this solution, but I like the idea of snow for eastern CO, however it comes. If this scenario happens, some pity for residents from the Northern Plains to the Northeast as this has been a brutal winter. I am sure they are hoping this will be the last arctic outbreak of the season. Long range models indicate CO could see more snow in early March as an upper trough develops over the western U.S.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Tue Feb 18

Winds should gradually die down today with just breezy conditions by this evening and tonight. Warm temps across the state today with temps 10-15 degrees above seasonal norms.

Wednesday will start out nice, but a fast moving system from the Pacific Northwest will bring snow to western CO Wednesday afternoon with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Ahead of this system, foothills will see gusty west to southwest winds of 15-35 mph Wednesday afternoon. Associated cold front will push east into the foothills and Metro Area by Wednesday evening and bring rain and snow to eastern CO. Snow level will initially be around 7500 ft by 5 pm Wednesday, but lower quickly to plains level by 8-9 pm. Precip east of the Divide will be mostly associated with cold front, so a brief shot between 5 pm and midnight. Initial precip likely to be rain over the Metro area similar to Sunday. Temps will drop rapidly behind front, and a Bora wind event with northwest winds of 25-50 mph and gusts to 75 mph will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday. For snow amounts, looks like 3-7 inches for the mountains along and west of the Divide, which will be accompanied by westerly winds of 30-60 mph, so tough travel conditions. For the foothills, westerly winds will prevail, so snow amounts will be limited. Currently looks like 1/2 to 2 inches of snow possible for the foothills. Metro area and plains may see higher precip values, but as initial precip likely to fall as rain, do not expect more than 1 inch of snow for areas east of I-25. Because temps will be cold by Thursday morning, roads may be icy, similar to Monday morning.

Thursday will be cool and windy statewide with maybe a few flurries across the northern mountains. Next upstream system will skirt to our north on Friday, which will bring some additional snow to the mountains from Thursday night into Friday, and then again on Saturday. As jetstream remains close with strong upper level winds, most of CO will remain breezy to windy through the weekend. Westerly winds of 25-50 mph will be possible at times from Wednesday night into Sunday afternoon. Not usually pleasant, it is part of our climate in CO during winter months. Temps warm back to near seasonal norms on Sunday with lighter winds by evening.

For next week, models today are eliminating snow chances early next week keeping the arctic air and snow to our north and east, thus next week is currently looking dry and mild across the state. Next precip chance will be next weekend as current models suggest the potential for a nice upslope snow event with upper level low moving to our south. Will not put too much stock in this at the current time and will wait to see how models evolve this.

I have been reading some interesting climate articles this week. I don't actually believe most climate models, since they are looking 10-50 years in the future, and I know how badly models 10 days in the future are, but some of the research associated with climate change is very interesting. One article was discussing as the arctic warms up, the temperature contrast between the poles and equator is lessening, which causes the jetstream to be weaker. This in turn causes upper troughs and ridges to move slower, and remain in place longer which promotes either more prolonged drought or more pronounced flood events. We have seen some evidence of this the past 5 years, so the theory has merit in my opinion. Another article talked about how the past 150 years have been a very quiet time from a climate standpoint, which means our knowledge of recent climate is biased towards relatively tranquil weather. Records using tree rings and ice cores suggest some pretty wild climate swings on our planet over just the past 300-1000 years. The article suggests, which I agree with, that the climate of our planet moving forward will be much more dynamic with greater swings of extremes. As our population continues to grow, it will be even more important on how we manage those swings. Drought is the biggest concern, as arid climates could become even drier, how do we insure there is enough water to support existing and future populations. Not only drinking water, but water to support economic activities such as industry and farming. Then how do we manage areas that receive to much water and become prone to persistent flooding. We as humans like to think we are in control, but when it comes to mother nature, we either need to adapt quickly or we are at her mercy.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 2/19 update

Bump for 2/20 Update