wxgeek's Weather Outlook Feb 23 - Mar 5: Update 2/28

Update Fri Feb 28

Very strong Pacifc storm bringing much needed rain to CA today with 4-8 inches of rain for coastal areas, and 3-5 feet of snow to the Sierras. Some flooding already in progress. This system will weaken as it moves inland, but will still have enough punch to bring plenty of snow to the CO mountains beginning tonight. Southwest mountains will receive highest amounts of 1-2 feet, but central and northern mountains will still see plenty of high moisture content snow (8-16 inches). Snow will become heavy overnight west of Vail Pass and move east to the Front Range Crest on Saturday with snow level 8000-9000 ft tonight lowering to 7000-8000 ft Saturday. Cold front associated with arctic air mass in the Central Plains will move into northeast CO early Saturday, bringing low clouds along with some freezing drizzle and light snow. Front will push up against foothills and Palmer Divide but cold air mass is shallow, so only up to about 7000-8000 ft. Above that, westerly winds will prevail in foothills with warmer temps. Some light snow could move into foothills late Saturday into Sunday morning, but amounts expected to be under 2 inches, with many areas only seeing a dusting. Snow will begin to diminish Sunday with lingering flurries in the mountains through the afternoon, but cold air will remain in place across eastern CO, so cold temps and low clouds likely to hand in through Sunday night. Travel likely to be difficult across the mountains from tonight into Sunday afternoon, as strong westerly winds will accompany snow. Avalanch danger will once again increase with the addition of wet snow.

For nect week, things clear up by Monday morning and remain dry and mild through Thursday. Next system could bring precip to CO by Thursday night into Saturday. Models then keep CO dry into the following week with next precip not until the following weekend. Models not suggesting any big Spring storms at this point through mid March.

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Feb 23
Winds finally calming down tonight, and Monday should see a tranquil day statewide, with mild temps and mostly sunny skies with light winds. Big change will occur Monday night as cold front associated with arctic outbreak will push into eastern CO. Low clouds and much cooler temps will usher in eats of the Divide Monday night with some light snow developing by Tuesday morning. Light snow to persist much of the day Tuesday but only light accumulations of 1/2 to 2 inches expected across the foothills and plains. Some heavier snow likely in the northern mountains where 2-6 inches of snow possible Tuesday. Snow should end by Tuesday night with clearing by Wednesday morning. Remainder of Wednesday to be mild under mostly sunny skies statewide. Roads could be slick Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

Next system will move into western CO Thursday bringing snow west of the Divide during the day with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Some snow may push east to the foothills and Urban Corridor Thursday night into Friday morning, but any accumulations would be light, less than 1-2 inches. Mountains may see an additional 3-7 inches Thursday into Friday.

Next system has the potential to be stronger. Upper level trough from CA will move into CO Saturday, with cold arctic air over WY that may combine with Pacific mousture over CO. Snow will move into western CO Staurday morning, and push east during the day. Snow possible across most of CO by Saturday afternoon, and looks like it could persist all day Sunday into Monday morning. Still quite a bit of uncertainty on the timing and intensity of this system, so will need to monitor how models evolve this during the week, as it has the potential to bring moderate amounts of snow to much of CO.

For the following week, dry and mild Monday into Wednesday, then more snow chances late in the week and over the weekend.

For the coming week, CO will only feel a brush with arctic air Tuesday. Most of the central and eastern U.S. will feel the full brunt of yet another arctic blast of air, with below zero temps across much of the northern plains and Great Lakes regions, and freezing temps all the way to the Gulf Coast. Precip wise, not a big event, but the cold could cause travel issues on it's own this week.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Mon Feb 24

Cold front has pushed into northeast CO this afternoon cooling temps and bringing some low clouds onto the plains and up against the foothills north of teh Palmer Divide. Models do not produce any precip with this first cold push of air, so at most a few flakes or some freezing drizzle. Second push of colder airctic air will move into northeast CO Tuesday afternoon, and this push will include snow. Snow moves into the northern mountains and along the WY border Tuesday morning, and moves south to the Palmer Divide by evening. Snow should persist into Tuesday night, diminishing after midnight and moving south. Heaviest snow will be north of I-70, and accumulations are expected to remain light. Northern mountains could see 3-6 inches, while the plains and foothills could see 1/2 to 2 inches, with highest amounts north of I-70.

Wednesday looks mild and dry with next system moving into western CO Thursday. Snow develops Thursday afternoon west of the Divide with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Some snow may make it east of the Divide, but any amounts would be very light, less than 1 inch with higher probability of no snow. Next system continues to look interesting for the weekend. Combination of upper trough from the west combines with cold air from the north and a second upper trough from the north. Models currently suggest snow chances for nearly all of CO will exist from Saturday into Monday. The question will be how much. Snow likely to come in waves with each feature, and mountains likely to get some moderate to heavy snow, with eastern CO likely to get light snow, with perhaps periods of moderate snow. STill too early for amounts, but could be a snowy weekend for most of CO.

Next week now looks mostly dry and mild with next precip chances next weekend.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Wed Feb 26

Nice day across the state today. Some flurries possible tonight across the central and northern mountains, but nothing significant. From Thursday through Sunday, a rather complex pattern will evolve across CO.

West Coast system will move into western CO Thursday and bring snow west of the Divide with snow level 7500-8500 ft. Winter Weather Advisory has been issued by NWS for 4-9 inches of snow possible. Snow will push east to the Front Range Crest by Thursday evening with some snow possible in the foothills and adjacent plains Thursday evening into Friday morning, but any accumulation would be very light. Snow level lowers to 6000-7000 ft Thursday night. Friday will be mostly tranquil across the state, with some snow from next system moving into southwest CO Friday afternoon. Foothill areas could see strong and gusty westerly winds from Thursday night into Saturday.

Next west coast system will spread snow to most of western CO Friday night with snow level 7500-8500 ft. Snow could be moderate to heavy at times across teh soutwhest mountains, with lower amounts central and northern mountains. Snow will persist most of the day west of the Divide with amounts in the 6-12 inch range. East of the Divdide, a more complex pattern will develop. As upper trough from the west coast moves into CO, southwest flow aloft will prevail, which is not a good wind direction for snow in the foothills. A stationary front will exist somewhere in eastern CO as the barrier between cold arctic air in the Great Plains and Pacific air to the west. Along and east of the stationary front some light snow and/or freezing drizzle may occur in cold air. The stationary front may also move back and forth, east to west and back east some over the weekend as well. The foothills could be under the influence of both warm Pacific air and cold arctic air at different times during the weekend. Most likely scenario looks to be Pacific air Friday into Saturday afternoon, then colder arctic air Saturday night into Monday morning. Snow totals do not look very high east of the Divide under this situation, maybe a few inches. Mountains could receive 10-20 inches west of the Divide Friday through Monday.

For next week, mostly dry until late in the week into next weekend when snow will become possible statewide. Early in the week cold arctic air may be in place Monday and Tuesday, then warmer Wednesday through Friday.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Thu Feb 27

Precip moving across CO as Pacific system moves across the state. Fairly weak system that will bring precip mostly west of the Divide, with some light rain across the plains into tonight. Snow level currently 8000-9000 ft and will lower to 7000-8000 ft tonight. Southwest mountains will receive the most snow with 5-10 inches possible, with 3-7 inches over the central and northern mountains. Only a dusting at best for the foothills. Some gusty westerly winds likely to develop across the mountains and foothills tonight with winds of 25-50 mph possible. In the High Country this will combine with snow to make travel difficult.

Snow ends by Friday morning, and remainder of Friday looks tranquil, outside of gusty westerly winds over the mountains and foothills. Next Pacific system arrives Friday night in western CO bringing moderate to heavy snow, especially for southwest mountains with snow level 7500-8500 ft. Snow continues along and west of the Divide Saturday with snow level lowering to 6500-7500 ft. Over eastern CO, arctic front is expected to move into northeast CO, basically along I-25 from the WY border to the Palmer Divide and east along I-70 to KS. In this cold air, light snow and freezing drizzle will be possible under cloudy skies and easterly upslope flow. The arctic airmass will be shallow, perhaps up to 7000-8000 ft MSL and may push up against lower foothills by Saturday afternoon. Any accumulations in the cold air would be very light. As west coast system progresses eastward, some light snow will be possible along the foothills from Saturday afternoon into Sunday, although any accumulations expected to be light, less than 1-2 inches. Cold arctic air will remain across northeast CO Sunday, so more light snow possible in this area with any accumulation less than 1 inch. Snow continues over the High Country on Sunday as well with snow level down to 6000-7000 ft. Snow comes to an end statewide by Sunday night, and arctic air moves east of CO by Monday mid day.

For the mountains, from today through Sunday night, southwest mountains could see 18-30 inches with 10-20 inches possible for central and northern mountains. Unfortunately foothills get mostly left out in this situation with snow ending mostly at the Front Range Crest, and cold artic air not really making it far enough west to impact foothills.

Next week looks dry and mild Monday through Thursday with next chance for precip Thursday night into Saturday. In general, it does not look like abundant snow the first half of March for eastern CO, pushing us further behind normal snowfall with the prospect of an early and bad fire season looming if late March and April do not provide some good snow.

Conifer Mountain will end February with 3 inches of snow for Feb, and 47.5 inches for the season. Normal for the end of February is about 90 inches, so around 53% of normal snowfall. We average nearly 80 inches in March and April combined, so we need a lot of snow the next 2 months to even get close to normal.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".