wxgeek's weather-Snow chances this week-Update 3/4

Update Tue Mar 4

Nice start to the day, but that will change by this evening. Models today are more robust with our incoming system. Precip will spread into western CO this afternoon with snow level initially around 8000-9000 ft. Precip will spread east into the foothills and adjacent plains this evening with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Precip looks to begin in the foothills between 5 pm and 8 pm and move east into the Metro area and plains afterwards. Snow level will drop to plains level around midnight. Models now output up to 0.5 inches of liquid equivalent for the foothills and Metro Area, so if all snow, this translates to 5-6 inches of snow, hence I believe this is likely to be a bigger snowfall than previously thought. Tricky part is snow totals below 8000 ft, as early precip likely to fall as rain or melt quickly. Northern and Central Mountains still expecting 5-10 inches of snow, with 3-7 inches in the Southwest and Front Range mountains. For the foothills, now looking at 3-6 inches above 8000 ft, with 1-4 inches possible below 8000 ft and across the Metro Area and plains. Most snow should end by 3 am to 6 am Wednesday morning. This means commute home this evening should be fine, maybe some rain or light snow later, but roads should be ok. Tonight and Wednesday morning could have snow and ice packed roads, especially above 7000 ft. Roads could have some snow or slush below that was well. Conditions will clear quickly Wednesday morning with mostly sunny skies and mild temps by afternoon, so commute home Wednesday evening should be fine.

Some gusty winds possible Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night across the foothills. Thursday will be mostly sunny and warm, with temps at least 10 degrees above seasonal norms, but quite windy in the foothills as well.

Next system still on target to arrive in western CO early Friday morning and spread east into eastern CO by Friday afternoon. Snow level initially 7000-8000 ft during the day on Friday, but will lower to plains level by around midnight Friday night. Snow could persist into late Saturday morning, then clearing in the afternoon. Snow amounts look heavier with this system, with 4-8 inches in the mountains, and possibly up to 5-10 inches in the foothills, and 3-7 inches along the Urban Corridor and 2-5 inches on the plains. Sunday and Monday look dry and mild statewide, perhaps some windy conditions Sunday afternoon and night in the foothills.

Next week still looking quite snowy. Models persist in bringing a slow moving upper trough across CO, which would bring precip from Monday night into Thursday for most of the state, with heavy snow amounts possible Wednesday and Thursday. This could be our first heavy snow of the season for eastern CO. Still early, but looks promising at this point.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Mon Mar 3

Nice day across the state today with only a few flurries across the High Country and temps near seasonal norms. A couple of upper level disturbances will move across the state this week and bring chances for precip, mostly west of the Divide, but foothill and plain areas could see some precip this week.

First system moves into western CO Tuesday afternoon with precip developing west of the Divide Tuesday morning into afternoon and snow level 6500-7500 ft. Winter Weather Advisory has been issued by NWS for the northern mountains from 8 am Tuesday to 6 am Wednesday. Northern mountains could see 4-9 inches of snow, with 2-5 inches for the central and southwest mountains. Some precip could move east by late Tuesday afternoon and evening into the foothills and plains. Most precip Tuesday will be rain over the Metro area and plains as snow level remains around 7000-8000 ft. Snow level will drop to plains level after midnight Tuesday, but only very light precip expected after midnight. For foothills areas, now thinking a trace to 2 inches possible with higher elevations receiving highest amounts and areas north of I-70. Conditions should be cleared out by Wednesday morning. Road conditions questionable, as any precip Tuesday afternoon likely to melt on roadways, so likely just wet road conditions for Tuesday evening, with some snow possible above 8000 ft on non-paved roads. Roads could become slick Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, so Wednesday morning could be slower than normal. Some gusty westerly winds could develop late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning in the foothills, which could blow and drift any fresh snow.

Wednesday and Thursday look dry and mild statewide, with some gusty westerly winds possible foothills areas both days. Next system moves into western CO Thursday night with precip west of the Divide and snow level 7000-8000 ft. Precip moves east into the foothills and plains during the day on Friday with snow level lowering to 5500-6500 ft by Friday evening. Snow could persist into Saturday morning with snow level lowering to plains level after midnight. This system currently looks a bit stronger, so 5-10 inches possible for the mountains, with 2-4 inches possible for the foothills and 1-3 inches possible for the plains. Conditions clear Saturday and dry conditions prevail over the weekend with temps near seasonal norms, and some gusty westerly winds possible in the foothills Saturday afternoon into Sunday evening.

Models a bit uncertain on weather for next week at this time. As the Spring transition season begins, models have a much harder time with forecasts, especially anything beyond 72 hours. Latest models suggest next week could be quite wet, but model consistency is not very good either, so not too much confidence in this event. Models suggest a saggy upper trough will persist over CO much of next week creating persistent precip from Monday afternoon into Friday. Will have to wait and see how this transpires, as I suspect later model runs will not be as prolific with precip, but hopefully we do receive some good moisture next week, as foothill and plains areas need quite a bit.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Sun Mar 2

We are now officially into Spring, at least from a meteorological perspective. This hopefully means plenty of snow for the foothills and plains, and kicks off the beginning to severe weather season across the U.S. Cold arctic air will exit CO by Monday morning, with only a slight chance for flurries across the northern mountains Monday afternoon, otherwise mostly sunny and mild weather across the state on Monday. A couple of upper level troughs will move across CO this week, bringing precip chances to much of the state.

Pretty nasty winter weather with freezing rain, sleet and snow as our system moves east into the lower Plains, Ohio Valley and Southeast U.S. tonight then moves into the mid Atlantic region Monday, so some travel delays and flight cancellations possible tonight into Monday.

First system of the week moves into western CO Tuesday afternoon with snow level 6500-7500 ft. Precip will push east into the foothills and plains by Tuesday evening with snow level 5500-6500 ft. Snow will persist into Wednesday morning with snow level lowering to plains level after midnight Tuesday night. Currently looks like 2-6 inches possible for the mountains along and west of the Divide, with 1-3 inches possible for the foothills and plains. Snow should end by late morning on Wednesday, clearing in the afternoon. Roads could become slick by Tuesday evening for the commute and remain ice and snow packed into the Wednesday morning commute. Roads should be fine by Wednesday evening.

Thursday should be mostly sunny and mild temps, with some gusty westerly winds developing by afternoon into Thursday night. Precip moves into western CO Thursday night with snow level 7500-8500 ft initially. Precip moves east into the foothills and adjacent plains by Friday morning with snow level 6500-7500 ft. Precip could persist into Friday evening with snow level lowering to plains level. This system looks to drop another 2-5 inches for the mountains, with 1-3 inches for the foothills and plains. Snow should end by Saturday morning. Mostly sunny for the remainder of the weekend with temps near seasonal norms, and some breezy westerly winds at times.

For next week, precip chances return Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Fair and mild Thursday and Friday, then more precip chances next weekend.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 3/4 Update