wxgeek's weather-roller coaster weather-Update 3/15

Update Sat Mar 15

Blustry day on tap across most of the state today. Snow has moved into the mountains overnight with a few inches of fresh snow. Precip will remain mostly along and west of the Divide today, but some light snow will be possible for the foothills with a mix of rain and snow for the Urban Corridor and plains. Snow level will be 7000-8000 ft until around noon when cold front moves through, then will lower to plains level this afternoon. Looking at 2-5 inches for mountain areas, with a trace to 2 inches in the foothills, and mostly under an inch below 7000 ft. Roads to remain wet below 7000 ft with some slush possibe at higher elevations. Precip should end statewide by this evening. The other factor will be wind today. Strong west to northwest winds this morning and afternoon, will shift to northerly this evening and tonight. Wind speeds of 20-45 mph likely with gusts to 60 mph possible, especially this evening and tonight.

Sunday will be mostly sunny, breezy in the morning with winds decresing through the day, and temps back near seaosnal norms or slightly above. Monday will start out sunny and mild, but westerly winds and clouds will increase by afternoon as next system approaches. Temps will be quite warm on Monday as downslope winds help raise temps. Wind speeds of 25-50 mph will be possible Monday afterniin and evening. Cold front will move through CO Monday night bringing snow to the mountains, but only a chance for light precip to the foothills and plains. System looked promising earlier in the week, but latest models indicate system will be a fast mover and stay mostly to our north. Snow amounts of 2-5 inches for the high country, with generally under and inch or two for the foothills and plains. Models suggest remainder of next week will be mostly dry. Cold front expected to ove across CO Thursday night into Friday cooling temps, but little if any precip expected, then dry and warmer for next weekend. No major storms projected through the end of March at this time.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Thu Mar 13

Sunny and mild day across the state today with temps near or slightly above seasonal norms. Should be a near repeat on Friday, with a chance for some afternoon showers across the southwest and south central mountains with snow level 8000-9000 ft. Nearly all precip should remain south of US 50.

Next system is poised to move over CO on Saturday. Upper level trough will move from the northern Rockies through CO during the day on Saturday with an associated cold front. Snow will move into western CO Saturday morning, then move into eastern CO Saturday afternoon and evening. Snow level to begin around 6000-7000 ft early Saturday morning, but lower to plains level by afternoon, so warmest temps of the day will be before noon. For the foothills, snow looks to begin around noon and persist until 5-8 pm. Amounts do not look very heavy at this point, with maybe 3-7 inches for the mountains, and 1-3 inches for the foothills, and a trace to 2 inches for the Urban Corridor and plains. I doubt snow will stick on roads below 6000-7000 ft due to warm pavement and snow occurring during the day, but roads at higher elevations could become snow and ice packed. Some gusty northerly winds likely to develop behind system Saturday night, and could casuse some blowing and drifting of recent snow. Conditions clear by Saturday night, with Sunday being mostly sunny and temps back to near seasonal norms.

For next week, GFS and ECMWF were in stark disagreement, but GFS coming in line with the better European model now. Hence, looks like Monday will start out nice, with mild temps and breezy westerly winds, then a fast moving and possibly strong system will move into CO by Monday evening or night. Model timing still a bit uncertain, with GSF being faster and ECMWF being deeper and slower. System could develop into a decent Spring type snowstorm for eastern CO Monday night into Tuesday if it digs and develops like the Eurpean model suggests. Will have to see how models evolve over the weekend. the rest of next week looks dry and mild through Friday, then the potential for some precip exists next weekend.

Still no major snowstorms lurking in March, so we will have to wait and see if April can produce one. We have not had a single storm that has dumped over 1 foot this year in the foothills, which is quite rare. We are also well below average snowfall with 67 inches so far this year on Conifer Mountain, while average through the end of March is around 120 inches.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Tue Mar 11

Snow moved into mountains overnight, but is weakening this morning. East of the Divide, cold front has moved south onto the northeast plains with rain developing along front. Temps dropping rapidly behind front, and rain is expected to turn to snow shortly. Latest model guidance a little more bullish with precip for the foothills and Urban Corridor. Strong northerly winds behind cold front, with speeds in the 20-40 mph range, some gusts above 50 mph possible. Strongest northerly winds will be east of I-25 on the plains, but still gusty into the foothills as front moves through. Precip will intensify both in the mountains and over the foothills and plains this afternoon into this evening. Brief periods of 1-2 inch per hour snowfall will be possible from noon to 6 pm today. Mountains still looking at 5-10 inches, with 2-5 inches now possible in the foothills and Palmer Divide, with 1-3 inches for the Urban Corridor and plains. Heaviest snow in the foothills likely to be southern JeffCo and Palmer Divide with northerly winds. Snow should end between 6 pm and 9 pm this evening with clearing later tonight. Roads could be snow and ice packed for the evening commute, especially at higher elevations, so could be a slow commute home tonight.

Dry and warmer weather on tap for Wednesday. Some clouds with a showers over the southwest and south central mountains for Thursday, with a slight chance of a brief shower over the southern foothills and Palmer Divide Thursday afternoon/evening. Models today are bringing snow back into the forecast for Saturday as upper trough moves down from the northwest. Snow looks possible across most of CO Saturday persisting into Saturday night. For the foothills, currently looks like 1-3 inches possible, higher amounts for the mountains and less for the plains.

Sunday through Thursday of next week look dry and mild, next chance for precip looks to be next Friday and Saturday.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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As is common with Spring in CO, the weather can be quite variable. This week will be a good example of that. Today will be warm and windy with temps well above seasonal normals and westerly winds of 25-50 mph this afternoon into tonight. Upper level trough will approach from the west, but latest models have the energy splitting, so this system will be much weaker than last Fridays storm. Snow will move into western CO overnight and move east to the Front Range crest by Tuesday morning with snow level 6000-7000 ft. Cold front and snow will move into eastern CO during the day on Tuesday and bring some light snow to the foothills and Urban Corridor by late morning or early afternoon. Snow level drops to plains level by noon, but with warm temps on Monday, roads will remain mostly wet at lower elevations, but could become snow and ice packed above 7000-8000 ft. Snow should end by late Tuesday afternoon or evening. For snow amounts, northern and central mountains under a Winter Weather Advisory for 5-10 inches, while the foothills and Urban Corridor expected to receive much less, say in the 1/2 to 3 inch range. Foothill areas above 8000 ft could see 1-3 inches, while lower foothills and Urban Corridor from a trace to 2 inches. Tuesday morning commute should be mostly ahead of system so no major issues expected. Evening commute likely to be slower with some slick roads at higher elevations possible.

Conditions clear by Wednesday morning with mild temps returning statewide. Thursday may see more clouds, with some showers possible mostly across the southwest and south central mountains, but southern foothills could see a brief shower Thursday afternoon with snow level 7000-8000 ft.

Friday is mostly sunny with temps near seasonal norms. Latest models now keep precip away on Saturday, whereas prior models had some snow moving into CO, so will go with cooler temps Saturday and some clouds, but no precip for now. Sunday through next Tuesday looks mostly sunny, breezy with temps above seasonal norms. Next chance for precip looks to be next Wednesday through Friday as an upper level trough moves through. In general, models indicate no big storms through the end of March at this time, so unless something changes, I do not see us reaching average snowfall in March. Hope still exists for April.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 3/11 update

bump for 3/15 update