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wxgeek's weather-Weather Outlook Through March-Update 3/21
17 Mar 2014 06:09 - 21 Mar 2014 10:40 #1
by RenegadeCJ
Too bad future generations aren't here to see all the great things we are spending their $$ on!!
Update Fri Mar 21
Nice start to the day, but that will change by later this afternoon and evening. Models in good agreement on system for later today and Saturday. Precip will begin late this afternoon and this evening (between 4 pm and 8 pm) over the central mountains and foothills of JeffCo and the Palmer Divide and spread north during the night with moderate snow at times. Snow level begins at 6000-7000 ft and lowers to 5500-6500 ft overnight. By Saturday morning, precip band is forecast to move north over the northern mountains and northern foothills, so foothill areas here could see a break Saturday morning. Snow level remains 6000-7000 ft during the day on Saturday. Precip band moves south during the afternoon into the JeffCo foothills and Palmer Divide as well as Urban Corridor and plains. Precip persists into Saturday night as band continues to move south, with clearing by Sunday morning. Snow level drops to plains level by Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Amounts look similar to yesterdays forecast with 5-10 inches over the central and northern mountains, 4-9 inches for the foothills above 7000 ft and Palmer Divide, and 2-5 inches for the Urban Corridor, 1-3 inches for the plains. Roads could be slick above 7500 ft this evening, then again Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.
Next system provides a brief shot of snow Sunday night into Monday morning, but any amounts expected to be less than 2 inches.
For next week, precip chances Wednesday through Friday with majority remaining west of the Divide. Looks dry Friday through Sunday, then another potentially significant system towards the middle of the following week.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Update Thu Mar 20
Happy Vernal Equinox to everyone, which occurred at 10:57 am this morning. Despite Spring weather having started in early March, it is now officially Spring. So we can now begin our real snow season
as well as severe weather season.
Warm and breezy day across the state today as surface lee trough develops over the plains, westerly winds will increase through this evening with speeds generally in the 15-40 mph range across the foothills. Temps will be 5-15 degrees above seasonal norms today with upper 60's and low 70's on the plains. Friday should start nice and remain mild through the afternoon with clouds increasing. Models have been consistent in bringing decent precip amounts into CO this weekend, despite the system looking rather benign, but will trust the models have this figured out. A saggy upper trough will move down over CO this weekend, and will combine with easterly upslope surface flow from High pressure in the Great Plains. The result appears to be a wet and snowy period from Friday evening into Sunday morning. Models bring precip into northern CO Friday evening, and move the precip south to about the Palmer Divide Friday night. Periods of precip look to remain during the day on Saturday into Sunday morning across most of CO. Snow level will begin around 5500-6500 ft Friday evening, lowering to near plains level overnight, then rising to 5500-6500 ft Saturday, then lowering Saturday night to plains level. Models suggesting a fairly wide range of precip amounts, and for different areas. GFS keeps heaviest precip north of I-70, while the NAM and WFR have highest amounts in the southern foothills and Palmer Divide. Lower elevations will have a combination of snow and rain so amounts will be lower below 7000 ft. Still thinking most likely amounts will be the following for the period Friday evening through Sunday morning:
Northern and Central Mountains: 5-10 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide above 7000 ft: 4-8 inches
Lower Foothills and Urban Corridor: 2-5 inches
Plains: 1-3 inches
Conditions should clear Sunday morning with precip moving mostly south of US 50 by mid morning. Temps will climb back to near seasonal norms by Sunday afternoon.
Next system arrives soon afterwards. fast moving system from the northwest will bring a quick shot of snow to CO Sunday night into Monday morning. Amounts look fairly light, maybe 2-4 inches for the mountains, and a trace to 2 inches for the foothills and plains, mostly north of the Palmer Divide. Conditions clear by Monday afternoon but temps remain on the cool side.
Mostly dry and mild next Tuesday and Wednesday, next system brings precip on Thursday mostly west of the Divide, then moves east into the foothills and plains Thursday night into Friday, then dries out for next weekend. Longer range models continue to bring additional precip into CO through early April.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Update Wed Mar 19
Beautiful day across the state in the wake of our "surprise" snow on Tuesday. Temps should be near seasonal norms with light winds, except a few gusty periods in the mountains and foothills. Temps should warm 10-15 degrees on Thursday under mostly sunny skies, but westerly winds expected to increase to 15-35 mph in the afternoon and evening.
Things begin to change on Friday. The day should start out nice, but clouds will increase by afternoon. Aloft, a weak upper level disturbance will move across CO Friday night into Saturday. At the surface, High pressure builds into the Great Plains and creates some easterly upslope flow across eastern CO by Friday afternoon, which will moisten lower levels. Precip develops across the mountains and foothills by Friday evening between 8 pm and 11 pm with snow level 5000-6000 ft. Precip intensifies and spreads overnight Friday night from the central and northern mountains to the eastern plains with snow level lowering to plains level overnight. Precip continues Saturday morning into Saturday evening with snow level back up to 5500-6500 ft during the day on Saturday. Some flurries possible into Sunday morning with snow level back down to plains level Saturday night. Conditions should clear Sunday morning with mostly sunny skies and and temps near seasonal norms Sunday. For snow amounts, still a little tricky, but in general feel that 3-7 inches will be possible in the mountains and foothills above 7000 ft, with 1-3 inches possible across the lower foothills, Urban Corridor and plains. Amounts could go lower or higher with future model runs, but in general be prepared for cooler temps with winter driving conditions Friday night into Sunday morning. As with nearly all spring snowfall, the moisture content is higher, and initial snow usually melts on warmer pavement, then freezes with additional snow, so roads tend to be more slippery during Fall and Spring snow events than dead of winter snow. As evidenced by recent road conditions during snow, slower speeds are advised with even a trace of snow on roads, and headlights should be on whenever precip is falling. Remember, during the day, your headlights are not to help you see, they are so other drivers can see you.
For next week, another fast moving system from the northwest will move across CO on Monday. Currently looks like snow will move into the northern and central mountains Monday morning and into the foothills and Urban Corridor by afternoon. Currently appears all precip will fall as snow with 1-3 inches possible over the mountains and foothills, maybe 1/2 to 2 inches for the Urban Corridor and plains, but could cause a slower commute Monday, especially Monday evening.
Some precip across western CO possible Wednesday into Thursday next week, but should stay mostly west of the Divide. Rest of next week into next weekend now looks dry and mild. Next system looks to be early the following week. Longer range models suggest early April could be snowy for CO, as upper troughs move through the Southwest U.S. I will hope the models are correct, as we are still way below average snowfall in the foothills. The snow Tuesday made March our snowiest month so far this season though, with 26 inches so far in March, which means we have a decent chance of making our normal snowfall in March of 32 inches on Conifer Mountain. Average April snowfall is 39 inches.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Update Tue Mar 18
Well, as you have likely noticed, weather disturbance currently moving across eastern CO much stronger than models suggested yesterday. Light to moderate snow impacting most of northeast CO from the foothills to the far eastern plains and moving south in strong northerly flow. Appears most areas will see 1-3 inches of snow today in this area, and as temps have now fallen below freezing in most areas, roads could become slick in areas where they are currently just wet, so expect a difficult commute home tonight, as CDOT along with us weather guessers were surprised by the intensity of this disturbance. Latest models suggest snow will continue to move south and persist into the evening hours, then dissipate tonight. Heaviest snow is on the eastern plains and is accompanied by 30-50 mph winds causing whiteout conditions. Strong winds should also diminish later tonight.
Wednesday through Friday still looking dry and mild, with some precip possible this weekend with snow level 7000-8000 ft, and only light if any accumulation currently expected.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Update Mon Mar 17
A Happy St. Patrick's Day to all, may the luck of the Irish be with you, especially while filling out your NCAA Tournament brackets.
A warm and breezy start to the day across the state today with temps 10-20 degrees above seasonal norms. South to southwest winds of 15-40 mph in progress statewide, and winds are expected to increase this afternoon with gusts to 60 mph as leading edge of system moves into western CO this afternoon. Red Flag Warning covers most of eastern CO this afternoon for dangerous fire conditions with RH values below 15% and surface fuel moisture's very low as well. Cold front will bring precip west of the Divide this afternoon with snow level 8000-9000 ft initially. Cold front moves to the Front Range by this evening with precip spreading to the Front Range Crest. Snow level will lower rapidly behind front, down to plains level by midnight. Winds become west to northwesterly behind front but remain strong overnight. Snow will persist west of the Front Range Crest overnight with 3-8 inches possible across the central and northern mountains. Westerly winds will greatly limit any precip for the foothills. Best chance for precip for eastern CO will be on Tuesday as secondary upper trough moves over the state. Best chances will be across eastern CO east of I-25 where a dusting to an inch of snow will be possible Tuesday as temps remain well below seasonal norms and northwest winds remain strong. Snow flurries likely to persist much of Tuesday in the high country as well. For the foothills, brief chances for a dusting this evening as cold front pushes through, especially western foothill areas, then another chance for a flurry Tuesday afternoon, but not expecting much beyond a dusting for most areas.
By Wednesday, temps return to near seasonal norms under mostly sunny skies statewide with some breezy westerly winds Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Thursday and Friday remain dry with temps near seasonal norms. Weak cold front will bring cooler temps into CO Saturday, and a chance for precip will move into the mountains and foothills Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Snow level will range from 7000-8000 ft Saturday afternoon, lowering to near 6000 ft Saturday night, then back near 7000-8000 ft Sunday. Currently looks like a few inches of accumulation possible over the mountains and higher foothills this weekend, but nothing serious.
Dry and mild weather expected Monday through Wednesday next week, then chances for precip will exist Thursday through the following Tuesday. Models suggesting the possibility of a stronger Spring storm next weekend, but will have to wait and see how model solutions evolve. Since we have not yet had a big snowstorm for eastern CO this season, the odds are in favor of at least one such storm between now and early May. This would also help keep fire danger lower for a bit longer in our foothills.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Breezy start to the day, but northerly winds should diminish through the day as temps warm to near seasonal norms statewide. Monday will start out sunny and mild, but gusty southwest winds will develop in the afternoon ahead of next system. This has prompted a fire weather watch for southeast CO as RH values will be below 15%. Foothill areas without snow on the ground will also experience increased fire danger on Monday. Fast moving upper trough and associated cold front will move into western CO Monday evening and bring snow to the mountains. Snow level initially 8000-9000 ft Monday afternoon, but will lower quickly behind cold front. Snow will move east to Front Range Crest by Monday evening with 2-5 inches possible, but does not look like much if any snow will move east into the foothills and Urban Corridor, perhaps a brief flurry but no accumulation outside a dusting expected. As front moves through, winds will remain strong but change to a northwesterly direction and remain strong into Tuesday morning with speeds in the 20-45 mph range from Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Conditions clear Tuesday but temps remain cool with a few mountain flurries possible.
By Wednesday, temps warm and breezy conditions return statewide. Thursday and Friday also look dry with temps near seasonal norms. For the weekend, weak system may bring a chance for precip to CO, but any amounts would be on the light side with snow levels 7000-8000 ft.
Next chance for precip according to medium range models would be around March 27-28. System has some potential, but given trends in models, will have to wait and see.
Seems Spring is coming very early this year due to lack of moisture in the foothills and warm temps. This also implies an early start to fire season unless April and May turn out to be wet.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Nice start to the day, but that will change by later this afternoon and evening. Models in good agreement on system for later today and Saturday. Precip will begin late this afternoon and this evening (between 4 pm and 8 pm) over the central mountains and foothills of JeffCo and the Palmer Divide and spread north during the night with moderate snow at times. Snow level begins at 6000-7000 ft and lowers to 5500-6500 ft overnight. By Saturday morning, precip band is forecast to move north over the northern mountains and northern foothills, so foothill areas here could see a break Saturday morning. Snow level remains 6000-7000 ft during the day on Saturday. Precip band moves south during the afternoon into the JeffCo foothills and Palmer Divide as well as Urban Corridor and plains. Precip persists into Saturday night as band continues to move south, with clearing by Sunday morning. Snow level drops to plains level by Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Amounts look similar to yesterdays forecast with 5-10 inches over the central and northern mountains, 4-9 inches for the foothills above 7000 ft and Palmer Divide, and 2-5 inches for the Urban Corridor, 1-3 inches for the plains. Roads could be slick above 7500 ft this evening, then again Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.
Next system provides a brief shot of snow Sunday night into Monday morning, but any amounts expected to be less than 2 inches.
For next week, precip chances Wednesday through Friday with majority remaining west of the Divide. Looks dry Friday through Sunday, then another potentially significant system towards the middle of the following week.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Update Thu Mar 20
Happy Vernal Equinox to everyone, which occurred at 10:57 am this morning. Despite Spring weather having started in early March, it is now officially Spring. So we can now begin our real snow season
as well as severe weather season.Warm and breezy day across the state today as surface lee trough develops over the plains, westerly winds will increase through this evening with speeds generally in the 15-40 mph range across the foothills. Temps will be 5-15 degrees above seasonal norms today with upper 60's and low 70's on the plains. Friday should start nice and remain mild through the afternoon with clouds increasing. Models have been consistent in bringing decent precip amounts into CO this weekend, despite the system looking rather benign, but will trust the models have this figured out. A saggy upper trough will move down over CO this weekend, and will combine with easterly upslope surface flow from High pressure in the Great Plains. The result appears to be a wet and snowy period from Friday evening into Sunday morning. Models bring precip into northern CO Friday evening, and move the precip south to about the Palmer Divide Friday night. Periods of precip look to remain during the day on Saturday into Sunday morning across most of CO. Snow level will begin around 5500-6500 ft Friday evening, lowering to near plains level overnight, then rising to 5500-6500 ft Saturday, then lowering Saturday night to plains level. Models suggesting a fairly wide range of precip amounts, and for different areas. GFS keeps heaviest precip north of I-70, while the NAM and WFR have highest amounts in the southern foothills and Palmer Divide. Lower elevations will have a combination of snow and rain so amounts will be lower below 7000 ft. Still thinking most likely amounts will be the following for the period Friday evening through Sunday morning:
Northern and Central Mountains: 5-10 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide above 7000 ft: 4-8 inches
Lower Foothills and Urban Corridor: 2-5 inches
Plains: 1-3 inches
Conditions should clear Sunday morning with precip moving mostly south of US 50 by mid morning. Temps will climb back to near seasonal norms by Sunday afternoon.
Next system arrives soon afterwards. fast moving system from the northwest will bring a quick shot of snow to CO Sunday night into Monday morning. Amounts look fairly light, maybe 2-4 inches for the mountains, and a trace to 2 inches for the foothills and plains, mostly north of the Palmer Divide. Conditions clear by Monday afternoon but temps remain on the cool side.
Mostly dry and mild next Tuesday and Wednesday, next system brings precip on Thursday mostly west of the Divide, then moves east into the foothills and plains Thursday night into Friday, then dries out for next weekend. Longer range models continue to bring additional precip into CO through early April.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Update Wed Mar 19
Beautiful day across the state in the wake of our "surprise" snow on Tuesday. Temps should be near seasonal norms with light winds, except a few gusty periods in the mountains and foothills. Temps should warm 10-15 degrees on Thursday under mostly sunny skies, but westerly winds expected to increase to 15-35 mph in the afternoon and evening.
Things begin to change on Friday. The day should start out nice, but clouds will increase by afternoon. Aloft, a weak upper level disturbance will move across CO Friday night into Saturday. At the surface, High pressure builds into the Great Plains and creates some easterly upslope flow across eastern CO by Friday afternoon, which will moisten lower levels. Precip develops across the mountains and foothills by Friday evening between 8 pm and 11 pm with snow level 5000-6000 ft. Precip intensifies and spreads overnight Friday night from the central and northern mountains to the eastern plains with snow level lowering to plains level overnight. Precip continues Saturday morning into Saturday evening with snow level back up to 5500-6500 ft during the day on Saturday. Some flurries possible into Sunday morning with snow level back down to plains level Saturday night. Conditions should clear Sunday morning with mostly sunny skies and and temps near seasonal norms Sunday. For snow amounts, still a little tricky, but in general feel that 3-7 inches will be possible in the mountains and foothills above 7000 ft, with 1-3 inches possible across the lower foothills, Urban Corridor and plains. Amounts could go lower or higher with future model runs, but in general be prepared for cooler temps with winter driving conditions Friday night into Sunday morning. As with nearly all spring snowfall, the moisture content is higher, and initial snow usually melts on warmer pavement, then freezes with additional snow, so roads tend to be more slippery during Fall and Spring snow events than dead of winter snow. As evidenced by recent road conditions during snow, slower speeds are advised with even a trace of snow on roads, and headlights should be on whenever precip is falling. Remember, during the day, your headlights are not to help you see, they are so other drivers can see you.
For next week, another fast moving system from the northwest will move across CO on Monday. Currently looks like snow will move into the northern and central mountains Monday morning and into the foothills and Urban Corridor by afternoon. Currently appears all precip will fall as snow with 1-3 inches possible over the mountains and foothills, maybe 1/2 to 2 inches for the Urban Corridor and plains, but could cause a slower commute Monday, especially Monday evening.
Some precip across western CO possible Wednesday into Thursday next week, but should stay mostly west of the Divide. Rest of next week into next weekend now looks dry and mild. Next system looks to be early the following week. Longer range models suggest early April could be snowy for CO, as upper troughs move through the Southwest U.S. I will hope the models are correct, as we are still way below average snowfall in the foothills. The snow Tuesday made March our snowiest month so far this season though, with 26 inches so far in March, which means we have a decent chance of making our normal snowfall in March of 32 inches on Conifer Mountain. Average April snowfall is 39 inches.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Update Tue Mar 18
Well, as you have likely noticed, weather disturbance currently moving across eastern CO much stronger than models suggested yesterday. Light to moderate snow impacting most of northeast CO from the foothills to the far eastern plains and moving south in strong northerly flow. Appears most areas will see 1-3 inches of snow today in this area, and as temps have now fallen below freezing in most areas, roads could become slick in areas where they are currently just wet, so expect a difficult commute home tonight, as CDOT along with us weather guessers were surprised by the intensity of this disturbance. Latest models suggest snow will continue to move south and persist into the evening hours, then dissipate tonight. Heaviest snow is on the eastern plains and is accompanied by 30-50 mph winds causing whiteout conditions. Strong winds should also diminish later tonight.
Wednesday through Friday still looking dry and mild, with some precip possible this weekend with snow level 7000-8000 ft, and only light if any accumulation currently expected.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Update Mon Mar 17
A Happy St. Patrick's Day to all, may the luck of the Irish be with you, especially while filling out your NCAA Tournament brackets.
A warm and breezy start to the day across the state today with temps 10-20 degrees above seasonal norms. South to southwest winds of 15-40 mph in progress statewide, and winds are expected to increase this afternoon with gusts to 60 mph as leading edge of system moves into western CO this afternoon. Red Flag Warning covers most of eastern CO this afternoon for dangerous fire conditions with RH values below 15% and surface fuel moisture's very low as well. Cold front will bring precip west of the Divide this afternoon with snow level 8000-9000 ft initially. Cold front moves to the Front Range by this evening with precip spreading to the Front Range Crest. Snow level will lower rapidly behind front, down to plains level by midnight. Winds become west to northwesterly behind front but remain strong overnight. Snow will persist west of the Front Range Crest overnight with 3-8 inches possible across the central and northern mountains. Westerly winds will greatly limit any precip for the foothills. Best chance for precip for eastern CO will be on Tuesday as secondary upper trough moves over the state. Best chances will be across eastern CO east of I-25 where a dusting to an inch of snow will be possible Tuesday as temps remain well below seasonal norms and northwest winds remain strong. Snow flurries likely to persist much of Tuesday in the high country as well. For the foothills, brief chances for a dusting this evening as cold front pushes through, especially western foothill areas, then another chance for a flurry Tuesday afternoon, but not expecting much beyond a dusting for most areas.
By Wednesday, temps return to near seasonal norms under mostly sunny skies statewide with some breezy westerly winds Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Thursday and Friday remain dry with temps near seasonal norms. Weak cold front will bring cooler temps into CO Saturday, and a chance for precip will move into the mountains and foothills Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Snow level will range from 7000-8000 ft Saturday afternoon, lowering to near 6000 ft Saturday night, then back near 7000-8000 ft Sunday. Currently looks like a few inches of accumulation possible over the mountains and higher foothills this weekend, but nothing serious.
Dry and mild weather expected Monday through Wednesday next week, then chances for precip will exist Thursday through the following Tuesday. Models suggesting the possibility of a stronger Spring storm next weekend, but will have to wait and see how model solutions evolve. Since we have not yet had a big snowstorm for eastern CO this season, the odds are in favor of at least one such storm between now and early May. This would also help keep fire danger lower for a bit longer in our foothills.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Breezy start to the day, but northerly winds should diminish through the day as temps warm to near seasonal norms statewide. Monday will start out sunny and mild, but gusty southwest winds will develop in the afternoon ahead of next system. This has prompted a fire weather watch for southeast CO as RH values will be below 15%. Foothill areas without snow on the ground will also experience increased fire danger on Monday. Fast moving upper trough and associated cold front will move into western CO Monday evening and bring snow to the mountains. Snow level initially 8000-9000 ft Monday afternoon, but will lower quickly behind cold front. Snow will move east to Front Range Crest by Monday evening with 2-5 inches possible, but does not look like much if any snow will move east into the foothills and Urban Corridor, perhaps a brief flurry but no accumulation outside a dusting expected. As front moves through, winds will remain strong but change to a northwesterly direction and remain strong into Tuesday morning with speeds in the 20-45 mph range from Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Conditions clear Tuesday but temps remain cool with a few mountain flurries possible.
By Wednesday, temps warm and breezy conditions return statewide. Thursday and Friday also look dry with temps near seasonal norms. For the weekend, weak system may bring a chance for precip to CO, but any amounts would be on the light side with snow levels 7000-8000 ft.
Next chance for precip according to medium range models would be around March 27-28. System has some potential, but given trends in models, will have to wait and see.
Seems Spring is coming very early this year due to lack of moisture in the foothills and warm temps. This also implies an early start to fire season unless April and May turn out to be wet.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Too bad future generations aren't here to see all the great things we are spending their $$ on!!
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