wxgeek's weather-weather for last wk of march-update 3/28

Update Fri Mar 28

Breezy and cool day today, with mountain snow continuing and some showers across the northeast plains. Snow and winds should diminish by this evening, with mostly clear and calm conditions for the foothills. Saturday still looking like a Chamber of Commerce day, sunny, warm temps and light winds. Westerly winds will increase ahead of next system Saturday night and persist into Sunday afternoon, with speeds in the 20-45 mph range and higher gusts possible. Areas without snow will see increased fire danger Sunday. Precip moves into western CO Sunday afternoon with snow level initially 9000 - 10,000 ft. As cold front moves through state, expected to move into the foothills between 4 pm and 7 pm Sunday. Some showers will be possible into the foothills and plains as front moves through. Snow level will drop to 7000-8000 ft behind front Sunday evening/night. Not expecting more than a dusting of snow for higher foothill areas. As system moves east, surface low deepens over western NE and strong gradient develops creating very strong westerly winds Sunday night into Monday morning for eastern CO. Conditions clear with cool temps but mostly sunny skies on Monday.

Then things could get interesting next week. Latest models indicating upper trough will dig and develop into a closed upper low over the 4 Corners region by Wednesday. Ahead of this, precip moves into western CO Monday night with snow level 5000-6000 ft, mostly west of the Divide but foothills and Urban Corridor could see some light amounts. Precip continues over the mountains on Tuesday with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Upper low then begins to bring precip to all of CO by Wednesday afternoon with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Heavy snow will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning with snow level dropping to plains level, so Urban Corridor and plains could see accumulating snow Wednesday night. Still early for amounts, but this system currently has the potential for 6-12 inches for the foothills, and 3-7 inches for the Urban Corridor and plains. Will have to wait and see how this evolves, but I am liking the trend in models.

Conditions clear Thursday and remain dry and mild into Saturday. Next precip chances will be next Sunday and Monday as another upper trough forecast to move across CO.

In general, pattern across the U.S. looking very Spring like, with thunderstorms across the central and southern sections, and snow remaining across northern sections. This pattern will be conducive to precip for CO in April, which we need east of the Divide.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Thu Mar 27

As is typical in Spring in CO, mixed bag of weather across the state today. Snow has diminished some this morning in the High Country, but second disturbance will increase snow this afternoon and evening along and west of the Divide, with snow pushing east to the Front Range Crest. Looks like an additional 3-8 inches of the mountains today into tonight, so more tough travel conditions over mountains passes. For the foothills and plains, mostly sunny this morning, but atmosphere is mildly unstable again today, so showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Snow level today in the 7500-8500 ft range, but will drop to near plains level overnight. Still not expecting more than an inch of accumulation for the foothills above 7000 ft, so do not expect any travel issues on foothill roads. Some gusty westerly winds will be possible in the foothills and adjacent plains tonight into Friday morning with speeds of 20-45 mph possible. Some snow persists overnight in the central and northern mountains into Friday morning, then diminishing Friday afternoon. Temps close to seasonal norms Friday east of the Divide.

Saturday still looking spectacular. Next system on track to move into CO on Sunday. Ahead of this system, gusty westerly winds may develop Saturday night into Sunday afternoon across the foothills and Urban Corridor with speeds of 25-50 mph possible. Precip moves into western CO Sunday afternoon with snow level 9000,10,000 ft initially. Cold front moves through the foothills Sunday evening with snow level lowering to 6000-7000 ft behind front. Some showers will be possible in the foothills and plains as front moves through, but not expecting any accumulation beyond a dusting. Mountains could see 3-7 inches.

For next week, Monday looks mostly dry and mild. Next system moves into western CO Monday night with snow level 5500-6500 ft. Precip moves east to the Front Range crest and persists into Tuesday with snow level 7000-8000 ft on Tuesday. A second disturbance reinforces upper trough position over CO next Wednesday and Thursday, which looks to be the best chance for precip over the foothills next week. Snow level looks to be in the 5500-6500 ft range, with the potential for a few to several inches of snow over the foothills and plains from Wednesday into Thursday evening. Will see how models continue to evolve this, as the ECMWF model currently even more promising for snow. Next Friday and Saturday look nice, then potential for more precip statewide next Sunday into Monday.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Wed Mar 26

Precip moving into western CO this afternoon with snow level 9000-10,000 ft. Some showers also beginning to develop over the foothills and plains. Atmosphere slightly unstable today, so thunderstorms will be possible from the mountains to the plains. Cold front moves through the foothills this evening, which will lower snow level to 6000-7000 ft after midnight. Vast majority of precip remains along and west of the Divide, so still only expecting less than an inch of accumulation above 8000 ft in the foothills, although if a thunderstorm rolls through, could see a quick 1-2 inches accumulate, but those will be very isolated. Mountains still expecting 6-18 inches from today through Friday, so travel will be difficult at times over mountains passes. Best chance for precip for the foothills will be as cold front passes this evening into tonight, and then Thursday afternoon/evening as second disturbance moves through. Mountains will see nearly continuous snow. Snow level drops lower Thursday night to plains level, so a dusting could occur along the Urban Corridor, with another dusting to an inch or so in the foothills Thursday evening/night. I would not expect paved roads to be adversely impacted, but side roads may have some accumulation on them each night. Friday begins to clear with some lingering flurries central and northern mountains.

Saturday remains gorgeous looking, warm, sunny and light winds. Models bring next system into western CO Sunday afternoon with precip west of the Divide and snow level 6500-7500 ft. Westerly winds increase over the foothills Sunday morning into afternoon with speeds of 20-45 mph. Another 3-6 inches looks possible west of the Divide Sunday. No precip expected in the foothills or plains.

Monday will be cool in wake of system, but mostly sunny. Next system brings precip west of the Divide Monday night into Tuesday night with snow level 6000-7000 ft. Some snow will be possible late Wednesday into Thursday morning across the foothills, but currently looks like less than two inches. Thursday and Friday look mild and dry, then precip chances move back in next weekend.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Beautiful Spring day across the state today as upper level ridge moves over our state. Contrasted to the residents of the Northeast U.S. dealing with more snow and a powerful NorEaster through Wednesday. Yet, they won't be dealing with wildfires in a couple of months. Temps today expected to be above seasonal norms with generally light winds. Weather picture begins to change on Wednesday. Upper level trough will approach from the west bringing clouds and precip to western CO by Wednesday afternoon. A surface lee side trough develops over eastern CO which will produce gusty westerly winds for the foothills and adjacent plains. Areas without snow cover will have increased fire danger Wednesday afternoon as RH values expected to be below 20% and winds of 20-45 mph possible. Snow level Wednesday afternoon will be 9000-10,000 ft. Precip will spread east by Wednesday evening, with showers possible across the foothills as well as eastern plains, with isolated thunderstorms possible across the far eastern plains. By evening, snow level expected to lower to 7500-8500 ft and by Thursday morning snow level 5000-6000 ft. Some light precip will be possible over the foothills and plains Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but any accumulation expected to be light, generally less than 1 inch with favored areas possibly receiving up to 2 inches. Snow continues west of the Divide Wednesday night into Thursday night, while some showers possible east of the Divide Thursday with snow level 6000-7000 ft. Little if any additional accumulation expected during the day on Thursday most areas east of the Divide. Precip winds down Thursday night except over the high country, then conditions clear statewide during the day on Friday except for a few flurries across the central and northern mountains. For the mountains, models indicate 6-12 inches of snow possible above 8000 ft, so travel over mountain passes could be difficult at times from Wednesday evening through Friday morning.

Upper level ridge moves back over the state Saturday to provide a warm and sunny Spring day. Models not quite certain about Sunday. Latest model runs have next upstream system moving across CO on Sunday which would bring a new round of precip to western CO with snow level 6000-7000 ft. East of the Divide, cloudy with gusty westerly winds although temps still expected to be above seasonal norms. Monday looks dry and mild statewide.

Latest models greatly diminish system for next week. What looked promising a few days ago, system is now forecast to remain north of CO, so precip west of the Divide Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, but little if any precip expected east of the Divide. Next Thursday looks dry, then precip chances return Friday, but during transition seasons, longer range forecasts tend to be pretty bad.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Update Mon Mar 24

Cold front associated with upper level disturbance passing to our north has brought some low clouds from the foothills east and flurries to northeast CO this morning, mostly north of I-70. Conditions will gradually clear this afternoon as drier air from the west mixes with clouds over northeast CO. Westerly winds remain strong today across the mountains and foothills with speeds in the 25-50 mph range with higher gusts in prone areas. Winds should gradually diminish by this evening. Upper level ridge moves over CO on Tuesday, so lots of sunshine and temps will warm to or slightly above seasonal norms with light winds. Some gusty westerly winds may develop Tuesday night over the high country and foothills as next system approaches.

By Wednesday, clouds will increase as upper level trough approaches from the west. Precip will move into western CO during the day on Wednesday mostly west of the Divide with snow level 8500-9500 ft. Some precip may move into the foothills and adjacent plains Wednesday evening/night with snow level lowering to 6500-7500 ft, but any accumulation expected to be less than 1 inch, with most areas not seeing anything beyond a dusting. Second upper level trough moves into western CO Thursday so precip increases west of the Divide during the day on Thursday with snow level 7500-8500 ft. Again, some light precip is possible to move into the foothills and adjacent plains Thursday night with snow level 6000-7000 ft, but any accumulation expected to be less than 1 inch again. Some flurries possible Friday in the mountains, but mostly sunny east of the Divide with temps warming. For the mountains, models indicate snow amounts from Wednesday through Friday could be 4-10 inches above 8000 ft, so travel could be impacted across mountain passes.

Models continue to suggest we will have a very nice weekend. Saturday currently looks to be the nicer day, as some clouds likely to increase during the day on Sunday ahead of next system from the west, but temps both days will be well above seasonal norms. Sunday could also see some breezy westerly winds.

For next week, beginning to get some better resolution from models. Currently looks like first weak impulse will skirt to our north late Sunday into Monday. Any precip would remain across the northern mountains and CO/WY border area farther east and any amounts would be light. Next system which looks much stronger would bring precip into western CO Tuesday during the day, then bring decent snow to eastern CO Tuesday night into Wednesday morning/afternoon. Then it looks mostly dry and mild next Thursday through Sunday. Next precip chance would be early the following week.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Mild and breezy day across the Front Range foothills today. Westerly flow aloft will increase ahead of next disturbance to our north, which will increase westerly surface winds this afternoon through Monday. Winds speeds of 15-35 mph will be common, with some gusts to 60 mph possible. Strongest winds will be from this afternoon into Monday evening. The system to our north is only expected to bring a few flurries mostly across the far northeast plains and near the WY border tonight into Monday morning. Other impact will be cooler temps across eastern CO Monday, so a few degrees below seasonal norms. Tuesday looks to be warmer with less wind, so a nice day statewide.

By Wednesday afternoon, western CO will begin to feel effects from two upper level short wave troughs that will move across CO. First impulse will bring precip west of the Divide Wednesday afternoon with snow level 8000-9000 ft. Precip continues Wednesday night into Thursday morning west of the Divide, then moves east into the foothills and plains by Thursday afternoon. Snow level Thursday looks to be 6000-7000 ft. Looks like any accumulation east of the Divide will be less than 2 inches, with mountains picking up 5-10 inches above 8000 ft. The second impulse will bring snow west of the Divide Thursday night into Friday morning with snow level 5500-6500 ft. Chances for precip move east into the foothills and adjacent plains during the day on Friday with snow level 6000-7000 ft. Any accumulation east of the Divide again expected to be less than 2 inches at this time. Mountains could see an additional 4-8 inches.

The coming weekend looks fabulous, with mostly sunny skies and temps 5-15 degrees above seasonal norms, so looks like a great weekend to be outside.

For next week, models continue to suggest unsettled weather from Monday night into Thursday as a series of upper level troughs move across the state. Still too early to determine if one of these will produce a significant Spring snowstorm for eastern CO, but the potential exists at this point.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 3/25 update

Bump for 3/26 update

Bump for 3/27 Update

Bump for 3/28 update