wxgeek's weather-Wind & Precip to end March-Update 4/3

Thu Apr 3

Nice Spring storm with lots of needed moisture. In general reports show 6-16 inches in the foothills, with 21 inches outside Blackhawk. Metro areas saw 2-8 inches, and plains saw 1-3 inches. Recent models began to pick up a circulation feature over Las Vegas yesterday that moved over CO and enhanced upslope flow. Most snow has moved south with a few lingering flurries that will end after sunset.

Friday will be mostly clear with temps slightly below seasonal norms, but a nice day for the Rockies home opener. A few mountain flurries will be possible. Next system will move into western CO Saturday morning and bring additional precip. This will be a weaker system, but will have convective elements. Precip is forecast to spread east into the foothills and adjacent plains Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Snow level will be 7000-8000 ft during the day, then lower to 5000-6000 ft Saturday night. Mountains could pick up 2-6 inches from this system, with foothills seeing a dusting to perhaps 2 inches in favored areas, and where convective showers pass. Sunday will be cooler with temps below seasonal norms, and more showers from late morning into Sunday evening. Snow level will remain in the 6000-7000 ft level during the day. Mountains areas could see an additional 1-4 inches Sunday, with another dusting to an inch or two in the foothills. Some showers could persist into Sunday night.

By Monday, CO should see mostly dry and warm conditions through Thursday. Temps Tuesday through Thursday should be well above seasonal norms with 70's on the plains. Models persist in bringing another Spring system across CO next Friday into Saturday with the potential for another good round of wet and heavy Spring snow. Additional precip chances the following week, so April is looking good so far for some much needed moisture.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Update Wed Apr 2

Attention turns to incoming system. Snow has spread into western CO this morning with snow level 4500-5500 ft. Upper trough currently over the Great Basin and will move across CO tonight. Models continue to move upper trough across as an open trough, but some upslope flow will develop tonight as upper trough passes and behind cold front moving south from WY. With low clouds across plains today, this has helped keep lower atmosphere moist. Forecast now call for snow spreading east to the Divide this morning into this afternoon. Some showers will begin to develop east of the Divide this evening with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Continuous precip associated with cold front will develop over the foothills and Urban Corridor between 6 pm and 9 pm north of I-70, and move south to the Palmer Divide between 9 pm and midnight as snow level drops to plains level. Heaviest snow for the foothills and Urban Corridor will be from midnight through 9 am Thursday. By Thursday morning snow will begin to move south into southeast CO with just some lingering flurries Thursday afternoon north of the Palmer Divide. Snow amounts still have some uncertainty, but latest guidance looks like this:

Central and Northern Mountains: 5-10 inches
Southwest Mountains: 3-7 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 3-8 inches
Urban Corridor: 2-5 inches
plains: 1-3 inches

There is the potential that favored areas of the foothills could receive up to 12 inches, but that should be isolated areas. Commute home this evening should be fine, maybe some showers but roads likely to remain mostly wet through 9 pm. Tonight and Thursday morning roads likely to be snow and ice packed at higher elevations, along with slush and wet roads at lower elevations. Thursday evening return commute should be ok.

Friday looking mostly dry and cool statewide. Some unsettled weather this weekend, with showers possible Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening with snow level 6500-7500 ft. Only light accumulation expected for the foothills, perhaps 1-3 inches for the mountains.

Still looking dry and warm Monday through Thursday next week, with precip possible next Friday into Saturday.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Update 3:45 pm Tue Apr 1

Just wanted to advise that the latest 1800 UTC NAM model now suggests a robust snowfall for the Front Range Wednesday night into Thursday. The NAM has been the dry outlier of models, and now it is depicting up to 12 inches of snow for the foothills from this upcoming system. Not sure how much faith to put in this, so will have to wait and see other model runs and their trends. Just wanted to advise everyone that if this trend continues, we could see a bigger snowfall from this system. Needless to say, still a lot of uncertainty for this upcoming system.

Another worthy weather note, as this system moves east on Thursday into Friday, models indicate a rather impressive storm to develop across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. Deep surface low develops over northern MO on Thursday with strong thunderstorms along front into AR and northeast TX, with snow across the upper Midwest. By Friday low moves into the Great Lakes with blizzard conditions across much of MN, WI and MI Thursday night into Friday. Expect significant travel delays in this region, with Chicago likely to be a mess Thursday night and Friday for air travel.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Update Tue Apr 1

Well, no pranks from Mother Nature today. Snow pushing into the mountains along and west of the Divide and mostly north of I-70. Perhaps 2-5 inches expected today above 8000 ft. Snow expected to diminish this evening into tonight. Gusty southerly winds on the plains and southwest winds in the foothills expected today into tonight with speeds generally in the 15-35 mph range. Some gusts to 50 mph possible in the foothills tonight into Wednesday morning. Next upstream system currently spinning of the CA coast, will begin to move inland tonight into Wednesday. Models in good agreement today that upper low over CA will fill (weaken) and move across CO as an open trough. This translates to decent snow for the mountains, and not too much precip east of the Divide. Forecast has precip moving into western CO Wednesday morning into the afternoon with snow level 6000-7000 ft. Precip spreads east to the foothills and Urban Corridor by Wednesday evening between 6 pm and 9 pm with snow level lowering to plains level by midnight. Snow persists Wednesday night into Thursday morning, then begins to move south of the Palmer Divide by Thursday afternoon, with some lingering flurries in the mountains and foothills into Thursday evening. For amounts from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening:

Central and Northern Mountains: 6-12 inches
Southwest mountains: 3-7 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 2-6 inches
Urban Corridor and plains: 1-3 inches

NAM and WRF models would suggest amounts on lower side of range, while GFS and ECMWF suggest amounts toward the upper end of range. At this time would think roads will be fine for the Wednesday evening commute, but roads likely to get slick Wednesday night into Thursday morning, so the Thursday morning commute could be slow. Expect roads to be in good shape by the Thursday evening commute.

Friday should be cool, breezy with some flurries in the mountains, dry east of the Divide. Models then suggest a couple of fast moving disturbances from the northwest will move across CO this weekend. Precip chances increase Saturday afternoon into Saturday night for the mountains, foothills and adjacent plains with snow level 7000-8000 ft. At this time would only expect a dusting to perhaps and inch or two for foothills above 8000 ft. Similar situation for Sunday with precip possible across mountains and foothills into adjacent plains with snow level 6500-7500 ft. Again, maybe a dusting to an inch for the foothills, slightly higher amounts for the mountains with flurries lingering into Sunday night.

For next week, conditions clear and warm up Monday through Friday, so mostly sunny skies and temps at or above seasonal norms Monday through Tuesday, then temps well above seasonal norms Wednesday and Thursday. It will definitely feel very Spring like next week. Then by next Friday into Saturday, models suggest a potent upper level low will move across CO bringing precip to most of the state, and the potential for heavy upslope snow above 8000 ft for the foothills. Models continue to suggest a pattern that could bring similar system across CO through mid April. However, this year the models have suggested the potential for quite a few good storms, but have not delivered any. I will keep my hope out for at least one good Spring snowstorm to provide some much needed moisture.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Update Mon Mar 31

Snow winding down in the mountains, and winds diminishing in the foothills today. Strong winds will remain on the northeast plains as High Wind Warning in effect through 6 pm, and Red Flag Warning in effect through 6 pm for southeast CO. In general, expect temps to remain below seasonal norms, winds to be strong, and unsettled weather for most of this week.

Next weak disturbance will bring an increase in precip to western CO beginning this evening and will persist into Tuesday afternoon. Snow level around 5000-6000 ft this evening and tonight rising to 7000-8000 ft Tuesday. Majority of precip will remain west of the Front Range Crest, but some snow will be possible along foothills and Urban Corridor tonight, with accumulations of 1-2 inches possible, but many areas may only see a dusting. Roads Tuesday morning could have some snow and slush on them to create slick conditions. More strong westerly winds will be present in the foothills tonight into Tuesday morning. Precip should remain mostly along and west of the Divide on Tuesday. Conditions will clear out Tuesday night Statewide. Mountains may see an additional 3-6 inches from this evening into Tuesday evening.

Precip will once again increase Wednesday across western CO as parent upper trough off the west coast begins to move east. Snow level Wednesday should be in the 7000-8000 ft range. Models still a bit uncertain on intensity of upper trough as it moves east across CO, but general consensus today is upper trough will move through as an open trough but be fairly strong. Still will not produce the upslope snow like a nice closed upper low would, but we will take what we can get at this point. Forecast now looks like snow will move into the foothills Wednesday evening and spread into the Urban Corridor and plains Wednesday night. Snow level lowers to plains level by around midnight and remains there through Thursday evening. Snow likely to persist over eastern CO through Thursday evening, with clearing Thursday night. Snow amounts still a bit uncertain, as some model ensemble members have more upslope, but currently looks like 3-7 inches for the foothills, and 2-5 inches for the Urban Corridor and plains from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening. Amounts could be higher if system is more intense and provides for greater upslope flow. Mountains should receive an additional 6-12 inches from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening.

Cool temps with some lingering flurries in the High country Friday, then better chances for precip from the mountains to the plains on Saturday with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Sunday and Monday have additional precip chances mostly along and west of the Divide. Models then suggest dry and warm conditions statewide next week Tuesday through Friday before another system brings precip to CO next weekend into the following Monday.

As March comes to a close, we have recorded 28.5 inches of snow for the month on Conifer Mountain, slightly below our average of 32 inches. For the season, we stand at 76 inches, which is well below our average of 121 for the end of March. Since 1993 when record keeping began on Conifer Mountain, we have only had less snowfall at the end of March once, which was the 2008-2009 season when we had 70 inches at the end of March. We received 74 inches that April which saved the season for us. We desperately need a very snowy April and May to stave off an early fire season.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Sun Mar 30

Cloudy, windy and warm day across the state today. Cold front associated with upper trough currently in eastern UT and will move across western CO this afternoon and across eastern CO this evening. Precip developing ahead of system west of Vail Pass this afternoon with snow level 9000 - 10,000 ft. Precip will intensify and move east to the Front Range Crest this evening with front. Snow level will lower rapidly behind front, with snow down to 6000-7000 ft tonight. Not much precip expected to make it east of the Front Range Crest, with maybe a dusting to western foothills as front moves through. Bigger impact to the foothills will be wind. West to southwest winds ahead of system this afternoon will be in the 20-45 mph range, then after front moves through, west to northwest winds of 25-50 mph with gusts to 70 mph possible tonight into Monday morning. NWS has issued a High Wind Warning for the foothills from 9 pm tonight through 6 am Monday. Mountains expected to pick up 3-7 inches of snow along with very strong winds, so more tough travel conditions through the High Country this evening and tonight. Just a few flurries expected Monday in the High Country with dry conditions across eastern CO.

For the rest of this week, CO will be under the influence of a deep upper trough along the west coast that will move across the Desert Southwest and CO later this week. A disturbance will eject from the main upper trough Monday night into Tuesday and bring additional precip to CO. Mountains will pick up snow Monday night with snow level 5000-6000 ft, then some snow possible in the foothills late Monday night into Tuesday, but any accumulation expected to be light with snow level Tuesday 7000-8000 ft. Conditions clear Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, then more precip expected by Wednesday afternoon across western CO with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Precip continues Wednesday night west of the Divide, then models suggest as main upper trough finally moves east, eastern CO will receive precip Thursday with snow level 5500-6500 ft. Still quite a bit of uncertainty on track and timing of main upper trough, so eastern CO could see more precip if the upper low develops and slows, but latest model trends have been to move the upper trough through as an open trough and rather quickly, so limited precip for eastern CO. West of the Divide, mountains could see an additional 8-20 inches of snow Monday through Thursday. With latest mode guidance, foothills would only see 3-6 inches of snow above 7000 ft Thursday. Forecast likely to change during the week, so stay tuned for updates.

In the longer range, more precip for CO expected this weekend and much of next week as upper pattern keeps a long wave upper trough over the western U.S., so systems will be moving through CO with some frequency through mid April.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 3/31 update

Bump for 4/1 update

Bump for 4/1 PM update

Bump for 4/2 update

Bump for 4/3 update