wxgeek's weather-Sun, Wind and Thunderstorms-Update 4/20

Update Sun Apr 20

I hope everyone is able to enjoy Easter in whatever way makes you happy. Wonderful smells last night and this morning after our first rain, as Conifer Mountain received 0.25 inches. Nice start to Easter Sunday except for some showers across southeast CO where upper low is currently centered, but nice moisture for a part of the state that desperately needs it. Showers will build once again from the Divide east into the foothills this afternoon, but coverage and amounts look to be less than Saturday, generally less than 0.10 inches except over southeast CO where higher amounts likely. Isolated thunderstorms also possible, with snow level remaining above 10,000 ft.

Monday should be mostly dry with just a few aftrenoon showers over the higher terrain, and temps near or slighly above seasonal norms. In advance of west coast upper trough upper ridge builds Tuesday with temps expected to be 10-20 degrees above seaosnal norms. Latest models bring decent chances for afternoon and evening showers into CO Tuesday, so clouds could keep temps down a bit. Gusty southerly winds likely to develop Tuesday afternoon as well, especially in the foothills and adjacent plains. Fire danger will be elevated Tuesday and Wednesday with strong winds and low RH values. Cold front expected to move across CO Wednesday, so cooler temps after frontal passage, but very strong westerly winds expected after front passes into Wednesday night with speeds of 25-50 mph possible. Some precip across the northern mountains Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with snow level 7000-8000 ft, but only light accumulations expected.

Thursday through Saturday look dry and warm statewide next week. Models then bring an upper trough into CO by next Sunday. Lots of differences between the GFS and ECMWF, as GFS brings a closed low across southern CO, while the ECMWF brings an open trough across, but either way expected cooler temps with precip chances increases from next Sunday into the following Tuesday, so April looks like it wants to go out with a bang. More details as this event gets closer.

So far in April, I have recorded 26.5 inches of snow on Conifer Mountain, well below our average of 40 inches. For the season, I have recorded 102.5 inches, so again well below our average of 172 inches for the season.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Sat Apr 19

Upper level low currently centered over southwest AZ is pumping lots of clouds and moisture up into the southern and central Rockies. Heaviest activity today is across eastern AZ and NM, but showers and isolated thunderstorms in progress across the CO mountains and moving into the foothills. Activity is expected to increase through the afternoon and eveneing hours and move into the Urban Corridor and plains. Most activity will die down after sunset, but areas of south central and southeast CO could see activity persist overnight as upper low moves into northern NM overnight. Snow level expected to remain above 10,000 ft, but in heavy showers flakes could be seen down to 9000 ft but warm temps will limit any accumulation. First rain since last September for many foothill areas. Precip amounts expected to mostly be in the 0.10 to 0.25 inch range, although areas where thunderstorms develop could see up to 0.50 inches.

Sunday should start out mostly sunny across CO, but residual moisture and instability will lead to a chance for afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms. Best chances will be across southeast CO closer to upper low, but mountains and foothills will have decent chances, lower chances over the northeast plains. Snow level again expected to remain above 10,000 ft.

For next week, Monday will see warm temps and a slight chance for afternoon and evening showers mostly across the High Country and foothills. Tuesday will be even warmer with temps 10-20 degrees above seasonal norms, with a slight chance of showers west of the Divide in the afternoon. Gusty southwest winds possible Tuesday afternoon and evening in the foothills.

By Wednesday vigerous upper level trough moves into the northern Rockies, but will drag a cold front across CO during the day. Temps will remain warm ahead of the front and then drop behind the front. Strong southerly winds ahead of the front will shift to strong westerly winds behind front. Wind speeds of 20-45 mph likely on Wednesday. Some precip moves into northwest CO Wednesday afternoon with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Some precip possible overnight into Thursday morning west of the Divide and north of I-70. Mostly dry Thursday with temps cooler in wake of cold front.

Temps recover to seasonal norms by Friday with dry conditions statwide. Fair and warm weather expected to persist into next Saturday as well. By next Sunday, next upper level system may bring precip back into CO by Sunday afternoon. Models suggest upper low could linger over CO into the middle of the following week, with chances for heavy precip and heavy snow above 8000-9000 ft, but still too far off to have much confidence in.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Thur Apr 17

Nice day across the state today. Reports from southern CO show up to 12 inches of snow from testerday's system, while only a trace north of the Palmer Divide. Fair and warm weather will continue into Friday, with some gusty westerly winds developing from tonight into Friday evening. Speeds likely to be in the 15-35 mph range. With recent moisture, fire danger should remain low, but fire weather conditions Friday will be dangerous with gusty winds and low RH values. Only some isolated showers expected to develop over soutwhest CO Friday afternoon/evening.

For the weekend, upper level trough off the CA coast will slowly move east through the Desert Southwest Friday and across CO Saturday into Sunday. Main impact will be increased clouds Saturday, and good chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms. Showers will develop over southwest CO Friday night into Saturday morning, and coverage will increase to include most of CO by Saturday afternoon and evening. Scattered showers will be likely in our foothills and Urban Corridor by Saturday afternoon, with some showers persistsing into Saturday night over the plains. Isolated thunderstorms likely with small hail possible. Precip amounts generally expected to be less than 0.10 inches, but thunderstorms may produce 0.25 to 0.50 inches of precip. Most activity will die down after sunset. Sunday looks to start out sunny and warm, then isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop mostly over the High Country and into the foothills in the afternoon and evening, plains look to remain mostly dry. Temps expected to be above seasonal norms both days. Snow level expected to remain above 10,000 ft.

For next week, temps should remain above seasonal norms Monday through Wednesday. Isolated showers posible Monday, mostly over the High Country with slight chances in the foothills and adjacent plains. Vigerous Spring upper level trough moves onto the west coast Tuesday, and ahead of this system southwest winds aloft will increase over CO bringing gusty soutwhest winds to the mountains and foothills by Tuesday afternoon. Winds will remain strong on Wednesday as system moves into the Great Basin. At this time, models keep the majority of energy with this system to our north. Cold front will move through CO Wednesday night with some precip developing west of the Divide Wednesday night into Thursday with snow level down to 8000 ft Thursday. Little if any precip makes it east of the Front Range Crest if current models are correct, so just cooler temps for the foothills Thursday and Friday. This system becomes a significant system for the Northern Plains and Great Lakes Thursday into Saturday next week.

For CO, next system looks to arrive late next weekend, with another potentially strong system early the following week, to emphasize the nice wet April we have had. Although any forecast beyond a few days this time of year is questionable.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 4/19 update

Bump for 4/20 update