wxgeek's weather-Dry/Breezy, Precip Late This Wk-Update Jun6

Update Fri Jun 6

Get ready for another active day of thunderstorms across much of CO, especially from the Divide eastward. Atmosphere is moist and unstable to start, which will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with activity persisting into nighttime hours across the plains. Storms will initiate along the foothills this afternoon and move east into the Urban Corridor. Couple of additional items today, one is a cold front which will move south from WY and NE into northeast CO this afternoon, Front will assist in initiating storms over the plains. Second is a Denver Cyclone is expected to develop this afternoon, which will also help initiate storms mostly south and east of Denver. It is likely some storms will become severe, with hail up to 2 inches in diameter and strong outflow winds. Shear profile will also support isolated tornadoes mostly east of I-25. Storm motion today from the west at 10-20 mph, so slightly slower than the past 2 days, which may increase chances for localized flooding.

For Saturday, front will push up into the foothills, so some low clouds expected across the plains and fog may be present into the foothills Saturday morning. Atmosphere behind front will be more stable, so lesser chances for storms across the plains Saturday, but foothills and Urban Corridor cold see increased precip chances with thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Morning hours Saturday could see drizzle and/or light rain as well. Storm motion Saturday would be from the northwest at 5-15 mph.

By Sunday, better conditions set up for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity from the mountains to the plains, so could be another pretty active day, with chances for severe storms east of I-25 once again.

Upper trough finally moves east of CO Sunday night, so next week looks much drier with temps back above seasonal norms. No precip expected Monday and Tuesday, with only slight chances coming back Wednesday through Friday.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Thu Jun 5

Atmosphere is slightly more stable than yesterday, with low level cap in place, but believe this will be eroded this afternoon and evening to allow storms to develop. Models suggest showers and thunderstorms will develop initially over the foothills this afternoon, then move east into the Urban Corridor and then onto the plains this evening and tonight. Similar situation to yesterday with risk of severe storms mostly along and east of I-25. Believe foothills will see higher chances for precip today, with possibility of some small hail in thunderstorms. Highest precip chances will be on the eastern plains as MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) development becomes more likely this evening and tonight. Good news for southeast CO as they need as much precip as nature can provide right now. Storm motion today will be from the northwest to southeast at 20-30 mph, so fairly fast moving storms. Biggest threat from severe thunderstorms will be large hail and outflow winds, but isolated tornadoes also possible.

Upper trough from the Great Basin moves closer to CO Friday into Sunday, which will increase precip chances for most of CO. Highest precip chances remain from the Divide east to the plains each day, with the possibility of severe weather east of I-25 each day as well. Foothills should see higher precip chances Friday as well as Saturday as storms develop in the afternoon then move east. Storm motion looks to remain mostly from the west at 15-25 mph, so flood concerns will be limited from rainfall, but localized flooding possible mostly along and east of I-25 in heavier thunderstorms. Sunday will see storms again, but likely less coverage and intensity than Friday and Saturday.

Temps will be near seasonal norms today and Friday, then at or below seasonal norms this weekend as cooler air associated with upper trough moves over the state.

By next week, drier and warmer air moves back over the state. Precip chances look pretty limited for most of next week, with best chances coming later next week. Early part of the week looks dry statewide. Temps will be back above seasonal norms for most of next week as well as upper ridge tries to establish itself over the Desert Southwest. In general, dominant upper ridge has had a hard time establishing itself as upper troughs from the Pacific continue to flatten ridge and moves across the Rockies. Longer range models suggest upper ridge will become more dominant in mid to late June, which is typical. It would also imply warmer temps and drier conditions for CO, hence fire danger is likely to increase in mid to late June, which is also typical.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Tue Jun 3

Warm and windy day across the state today, with temps approcahing record levels. Temps near 100 deg already across southeast CO. Southwest winds generally in the 20-40 mph range, and RH values generally below 15%. This has caused Red Flag Warnings across southwest and southeast CO today, while recent precip has kept ground fuel moisture high enough to limit fire danger in the foothills. However, anything that gets started, has rapid growth potential today with the weather conditions. Strong winds will perrsist into the evening hours, then should diminish some overnight while temps remain quite warm. Severe weather currently developing across SD and NE, and could become more widespread later this afternoon and evening spreading into KS, MO, IA, MN and IL overnight. Some strong tornadoes psosible in this event.

Wednesday should see less wind and slightly cooler temps, but still above average. Only precip chances look to be across the far northeast plains in the late afternoon and evening, with activity possible overnight across the eastern plains. Thursday should see more clouds and better precip chances across the foothills and Urban Corridor in the afternoon and evening hours with thunderstorms possible while temps remain above seasonal norms.

Even better precip chances will exist for Friday and Saturday while upper trough moves across CO. Temps will be closer to seasonal norms each day and more cloud cover, while showers and thunderstorms become more widespread and numerous from the Divide into the plains. Some storms may approach severe limits each day, especially east of I-25. Some areas could receive up to an inch of rain from heavier storms.

Warm temps will keep snowmelt going in the High Country, so flooding issues will continue into the weekend and likely into next week as well as runoff and precip combine to push many streams and rivers above flood stage.

Sunday looks drier and warmer with only isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms mostly from the Divide to I-25. Most of next week looks warm with only isolated precip chances, so fire danger will continue to creep up as conditions dry out.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Mon Jun 2

Generally nice summer day across the state today, mostly sunny with temps about 5 degrees above seasonal average. I say summer as meteorologically summer began June 1. Slight chance for isolated showers to pop up over the High Country as well as the far northeast plains this afternoon and evening.

On Tuesday, upper trough will pass to our north which will increase southwesterly winds and temps across the state. Only precip chances will be Tuesday evening across the far northeast plains. Bigger concern will be increased fire danger as low RH values will combine with above mentioned warm temps and gusty winds. Because recent precip has increased ground fuel moisture content, NWS will not likely issue any fire related watches or warnings, but conditions will be dangerous for any starts that do occur. Soutwhest wind speeds of 15-35 mph likely , with gusts to 50 mph possible, and RH values less than 15% expected with temps from the 70's in the foothills to low 90's on the plains. Winds will remain gusty into early Wednesday morning. Severe weather threat will be fairly high Tuesday across much of SD, NE and KS and then move east into IA, MO and IL overnight. Damaging severe thunderstorms and tornadoes possible to likely in this area.

For Wednesday, we should again see mostly sunny skies over CO and less wind, and temps slightly cooler, but still above seasonal norms. Only precip threat would be a slight chance across the northeast plains Wednesday evening into Wednesday night.

By Thursday, another approaching upper trough will create slightly better precip chances for the foothills and Urban Corridor, but activity will mostly be isolated showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening hours. As upper trough gets closer on Friday, better chances statewide for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, with best chances from the Divide east to I-25. Temps will remain above seasonal norms through Friday.

Upper trough moves through CO on Saturday, so temps will be cooler and back to near seasonal norms, with decent chances for showers and thunderstorms from late morning into late afternoon with cold frontal passage. As front passes Saturday afternoon, conditions will dry out behind front with some gusty west to northwest winds.

From Sunday into most of next week, expect mostly dry conditions as upper ridge begins to build over the region. This will also keep temps above seasonal norms. As is common in June, warm temps and dry conditions will begin to bring fire danger into the moderate to high range. On days when winds increase, fire danger may become extreme as ground fuels also begin to dry out. Long range models suggest these conditions may persist into mid to late June which would keep fire danger elevated. Conditions would likely not decrease until the North American Monsoon begins, which is usually from late June to early July in Colorado.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Jun 1
After some showers across the mountains this morning, mostly dry and breezy day across the state in the wake of a cold front associated with a system passing to our north. Some severe weather is possible today in the central and northern Great Plains associated with the above mentioned cold front and upper trough. Westerly winds of 15-35 mph possible today into tonight with gusts to 45 mph possible at higher elevlations. Despite cold frontal passage, temps expected to remain above seasonal norms today and most of this week.

Monday, winds should calm down and conditions expected to remain dry statewide. Another disturbance will pass to our north Tuesday, which will once again increase westerly winds from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. No precip expected with this system outside of a few isolated showers along the WY border,thus fire danger will increase from today into Wednesday as winds and temps increase while RH values drop. Temps Tuesday expected to be 10-15 degrees above seasonal norms. Winds should decrease Wednesday afternoon and remain dry. Thursday should see mostly dry conditions again except for a few isloated showers Thursday evening across the far northeast plains as a cold front begins to back into northeast CO. This front may produce showers and thudnerstorms overnight as precip moves back to the west up against the foothills. Friday then expected to remain showery and cooler with thunderstorms likely into Friday afternoon and evening. Foothills areas could see up to 0.50 inches of rain by Friday evening. Unsettled conditions expected to persist on Saturday with showers and thunderstorms from the Divide east.

Drier and warmer weather expected next Sunday. This drier and warmer pattenr expected to persist into next week as well, so with warmer and drier weather, fire danger will rise accordingly.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Jun 3 Update

Bump for June 5 update

Bump for June 6 update