Setting up to be another active thundrstorm day across CO today. Upper trough moving across CO today, and good comma cloud moving into western CO at this time. In addition, cold front will move south into eastern CO this afternoon. Combination will provide good lift and instability and combine with good low level moisture in place across CO to produce widespread thunderstorms, some likely becoming severe mostly east of I-25 this afternoon. Convection already in progress west of the Divide and this will move into eastern CO as daytime heating takes place maximizing development of thunderstorms. Most active period for foothills will be early to late afternoon, while late afternoon to evening on the plains. Hail up to 2 inches possible along with isolated tornadoes and strong outflow winds.
Most activity will move east of CO tonight, leaving behind a much drier air mass, so no precip expected statewide Monday and Tuesday as temps warm back to seasonal norms or above. Models indicate some isolated convection will back in the picture Wednesday and Thursday, although storms will be isolated and mostly across higher terrain. Friday and Saturday look warm and dry with some gusty westerly winds at times. Precip chances come back Sunday.
Longer range models continue to suggest upper ridge will finally build in across the Desert Southwest the following week, which would bring much warmer temps and relatively dry conditions to most of CO from mid to late June. However, when models have hinted at this earlier, they tend to sneak in an upper trough that brings some good precip to CO, so not sure we will see a long extended dry spell into late June, it could have brief periods of precip intermixed.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Too bad future generations aren't here to see all the great things we are spending their $$ on!!
