wxgeek's weather-Severe Weather Possible Mon/Tue-Update 6/24

Update Tue Jun 24

Atmosphere again moist and unstable today, actually a little more so than Monday. However, convection on the plains last night has pushed stratus and cooler air over eastern CO up against the foothills this morning. Hence, it may take longer today to get convection going, as there is a low level cap in place, and some subsidence aloft as upper ridge moves closer to CO. My personal opinion is that storms will initially form along the mountains and foothills this afternoon where sunshine is more abundant, which will then move east into the Urban Corridor and provide a better environment for new storms to form farther east, but things will start later and last into tonight for the plains. Shear profile is enough to support severe storms today as well, with large hail and isolated tornadoes possible, mostly east of I-25. Storm motion expected to be from the west at 10-20 mph today.

As upper ridge moves over CO Wed and Thu, precip potential will diminish each day, with most activity expected to be east of I-25. SPC still has a slight chance for severe thunderstorms over eastern CO for Wednesday afternoon, but overall coverage of storms expected to be less, especially west of I-25. Temps will also warm up Wed and Thu above seasonal norms, with some gusty westerly winds at times.

By Friday, a weak upper level trough is forecast to move across CO. Models do not currently bring much precip into CO with this system, but given the intensity of the upper trough, I would expect some increase in showers and thunderstorms along cold front expected to move across CO Friday afternoon. Best chances likely to be in the mountains and foothills, but any storms that do form could persist into the Urban Corridor and plains. Temps will cool down some behind cold front, but only a few degrees on Saturday. The weekend looks mostly dry and warm statewide.

For next week, models continue to build upper level ridge over the Inter-Mountain West and into the central U.S. in time for the Holiday weekend. This pattern is very typical of a summer pattern for the U.S. and will warm temps across CO, and create a pattern of isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms statewide, very typical of summer. It will also create a pattern that will eventually allow the start of the North American Monsoon, probably in early July. So far we have escaped any significant fires in CO, and hopefully we can continue that until the Monsoon begins and fire danger levels will decrease.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Atmosphere moist and unstable across eastern CO today with surface dew points in the low 50's from the foothills east. As surface heating progresses, expect storms to build from the Divide east late this morning into early afternoon, then move east into the Urban Corridor and plains this afternoon and evening. Some storms may become severe from the foothills east today with hail up to 2 inches in diameter, strong outflow winds and isolated tornadoes all possible. Greatest threat for severe weather will be along and east of I-25, but can't rule out some severe thunderstorms for the foothills with large hail possible. Storm motion today will be from the northwest at 10-20 mph. Isolated flash flooding also possible as storms will be possible of producing 1-2 inches of rain in a short period. Activity will die down after sunset for the foothills and Urban Corridor, but activity could persist overnight on the plains.

A similar pattern is on tap for Tuesday, with more severe weather possible from the foothills east and more heavy rain, large hail and strong outflow winds possible from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Temps Mon and Tue expected to remain at or slightly below seasonal norms.

By Wednesday, models indicate atmosphere will begin to dry out as drier air from the Great Basin will move east into CO, so warmer temps expected and only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected for Wednesday, with the severe weather threat mostly gone from the state.

For Thursday into the weekend, mostly dry weather is expected across CO, with temps rising above seasonal norms for the period. Some gusty westerly winds will be possible at times as well, which will increase fire danger for areas that have not received much precipitation lately.

Long range models continue to build a large upper ridge into the Inter-Mountain West by next week which would keep conditions on the dry side, as well as keep temps above seasonal norms. Models then extend the upper ridge into the Central U.S. which could trigger the start of the North American Monsoon season towards the 4th of July weekend.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 6/24 update