wxgeek's weather-June 26 - July 6-Update 7/1

Update Tue Jul 1

Mostly cloudy and cool conditions today east of the Divide, sunny and warm west of the Divide. Any precip today looks to be confined to south central CO along the Sangre de Cristo mountains and adjacent valleys, with isolated showers possibly extending north into South Park and southern JeffCo. Any precip amounts expected to be light.

For Wednesday, northwest flow will give way to a more typical southerly flow which will increase precip chances over the mountains and foothills in the afternoon and evening hours, with some activity spilling into the Urban Corridor. On Thursday, precip chances will be highest along and west of the Divide, with isolated showers and thunderstorms extending into the foothills and plains by late afternoon and evening. Thursday will probably have the best chances for most areas to receive measurable precipitation. Temps will begin to warm back to seasonal norms Wednesday, and then will be above seasonal norms from Thursday into the Holiday weekend.

For the Holiday weekend, conditions look mostly dry and warm. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, with most activity over the High Country, but most areas will not likely receive any precipitation. Hence, fire danger will be high for the Holiday weekend. Models continue to hint that the North American Monsoon will begin early next week, so better precip chances statewide from Monday through Thursday next week.

Elsewhere, tropical storm Arthur has formed over the northern Bahamas just east of Ft. Pierce, FL. Sustained winds to 35 kts currently. Storm is forecast to parallel the FL coast the next 24-36 hours then turn northeast and head towards the outer banks of NC on the 4th of July. Storm is expected to intensify into a Cat 1 Hurricane by Friday morning, then head off into the North Atlantic, so only land impact will be along North Carolina. Some strong easterly winds and high seas will be possible from FL to the NC coast as the storm progresses, but no major impacts currently expected.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Mostly sunny and warm today, with only isolated showers and thunderstorm chances. Best chances will be over the High Country and far eastern plains today. Slight risk for some storms to become severe across the far eastern plains late this afternoon into tonight. Red Flag Warning in effect across western CO today, and these conditions may continue into Friday and Saturday with gusty westerly winds and low RH values west of the Divide.

Upper trough will move from the Great Basin across CO tonight into Friday, so temps will cool back to seasonal norms on Friday, and increased precip chances will exist statewide from early Friday morning into Friday evening. Showers and thunderstorms possible across western CO late tonight into early Friday morning associated with upper trough. Precip chances then increase from the mountains to the plains Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Some storms may approach severe limits on Friday, but overall precip amounts expected to be light. Some gusty westerly winds expected to develop Friday afternoon and persist into early Saturday morning, especially at higher elevations.

For the weekend, expecting mostly dry and warm conditions statewide with temps 5-10 degrees above seasonal norms, and only very isolated precip chances each day, mostly over the High Country. Warm and dry weather is expected to persist into early next week as upper level ridge builds into the Inter-Mountain West. Precip chances may return by next Wednesday and persist into the Holiday weekend, but activity is expected to be of the isolated afternoon and evening variety, typical of summer.

As upper ridge continues to build into the Central U.S. late next week, I would expected the North American Monsoon to move into southern AZ by next weekend, and usually takes 2-3 days to continue into CO.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Update Sun Jun 29

Warm and breezy day statewide today with temps well above seasonal norms. Fire weather concerns today as RH values less than 15% across most of CO from the foothills west with gusty westerly winds of 20-40 mph in mountain areas. Red Flag Warnings in effect for portions of western and south central CO, and these will likely be in place Monday as well. Weak cold front will move south over eastern CO Monday and cool temps a few degrees, but will still be above seasonal norms. Only precip Monday will be across south central and southeast CO with isolated showers and some thunderstorms. More gusty westerly winds possible to create higher fire danger. Similar pattern for Tuesday with temps rising and isolated showers and thunderstorms mostly across South central CO. Fire danger will once again be elevated for some areas.

By Wednesday, slightly better precip chances for the mountains and foothills as well as the Urban Corridor will exist, but activity will likely remain isolated and precip amounts expected to be light. Possibility of dry lightning with storms on Wednesday, so higher fire danger. Similar pattern expected on Thursday with isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms from the mountains to the Urban Corridor.

By The 4th of July, strong upper ridge is expected to build across much of the western U.S. and strengthen into the weekend. This will limit precip potential across most of CO from Friday through Sunday, so good weather for campers and back country enthusiasts for the Holiday weekend, but not necessarily good news for fire danger. Temps will be well above seasonal norms and RH values likely to be quite low, so dangerous fire weather for much of CO expected over the Holiday weekend. Without any fire bans in place, I really hope people deal smartly with fire and fireworks.

Models suggest the upper ridge will remain very strong and remain centered over the central Rockies into the extended future. This is not an ideal pattern for the North American Monsoon to get started and move into CO, so we may see a late start if the models have this pattern forecast correctly. This would keep fire danger at high levels into early to mid July until we begin to see monsoon moisture into CO.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Update Tue Jul 1

Mostly cloudy and cool conditions today east of the Divide, sunny and warm west of the Divide. Any precip today looks to be confined to south central CO along the Sangre de Cristo mountains and adjacent valleys, with isolated showers possibly extending north into South Park and southern JeffCo. Any precip amounts expected to be light.

For Wednesday, northwest flow will give way to a more typical southerly flow which will increase precip chances over the mountains and foothills in the afternoon and evening hours, with some activity spilling into the Urban Corridor. On Thursday, precip chances will be highest along and west of the Divide, with isolated showers and thunderstorms extending into the foothills and plains by late afternoon and evening. Thursday will probably have the best chances for most areas to receive measurable precipitation. Temps will begin to warm back to seasonal norms Wednesday, and then will be above seasonal norms from Thursday into the Holiday weekend.

For the Holiday weekend, conditions look mostly dry and warm. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, with most activity over the High Country, but most areas will not likely receive any precipitation. Hence, fire danger will be high for the Holiday weekend. Models continue to hint that the North American Monsoon will begin early next week, so better precip chances statewide from Monday through Thursday next week.

Elsewhere, tropical storm Arthur has formed over the northern Bahamas just east of Ft. Pierce, FL. Sustained winds to 35 kts currently. Storm is forecast to parallel the FL coast the next 24-36 hours then turn northeast and head towards the outer banks of NC on the 4th of July. Storm is expected to intensify into a Cat 1 Hurricane by Friday morning, then head off into the North Atlantic, so only land impact will be along North Carolina. Some strong easterly winds and high seas will be possible from FL to the NC coast as the storm progresses, but no major impacts currently expected.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".