wxgeek's weather- Daily Rain in the Forecast-Update 7/15

Update Tue Jul 15

Another day with a moist and unstable atmosphere present over CO. Surface dew points near 60 deg F and Lifted Index near zero, so expect showers and thunderstorms to fire off by early afternoon over the mountains and foothills, then drift into the Urban Corridor and plains later this afternoon and evening. Flow aloft from the northwest with higher wind speed, so storm motion from the northwest at 15-25 mph today. With faster storm motion, flooding threat reduced, but better vertical wind shear profile today so threat of severe thunderstorms higher across most of eastern CO from the foothills east. Biggest threat will be large hail and strong outflow winds, but isolated tornadoes will be possible, mostly east of I-25. Activity may persist into the overnight hours on the plains, possibly into the early morning hours. Some heavy rain will be possible in heavier showers.

On Wednesday, cooler temps will be in place as another surge of cooler air from the Midwest will move into eastern CO. Enough cool and moist air will be in place for stratus and possibly some drizzle and fog across eastern CO, and up against the foothills. Clouds may hang tough during the day, so not as much sunshine either. Atmosphere will be more stable with cooler air mass, so chance of thunderstorms reduced east of the foothills Wednesday, but will be present for the mountains and foothills, and storms that do form will move east and southeast into the Urban Corridor. Plains may be too stable to support thunderstorms Wednesday.

By Thursday, upper ridge strengthens and builds over eastern AZ with flow aloft remaining northwesterly over CO. This will increase temps over CO and precip chances will be reduced, but enough moisture will remain trapped under the ridge to support afternoon and evening storms across the mountains and foothills, but coverage will be more isolated. Similar situation for Friday.

By the weekend, upper ridge expected to move into NM, which would allow for a better flow of monsoon moisture, yet models currently reluctant to push too much precip over CO, so currently expecting warmer temps and isolated showers and thunderstorms mostly over the mountains and foothills this weekend.

By next week, models build upper ridge into the 4 Corners region and then farther southwest into AZ by late next week. This pattern would be drier for CO and keep temps at or above seasonal norms. It would also produce some very hot temps across the Desert Southwest, in the 105-115 deg F range.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Yep, it's Monsoon season. Fairly stormy day on tap for today. Atmosphere is very moist (over 1 inch of precipitable water) and relatively unstable (Lifted Index near zero). Upper ridge is centered in eastern NM today, so this will allow a good monsoon flow of moisture from northwest Mexico into Colorado. Storm motion today will be from the southwest (which is our favored monsoon flow direction) at 5-15 mph. Storms expected to develop across the mountains early this afternoon and move into the foothills and Urban Corridor later this afternoon, then into the plains by this evening. With lots of available moisture and slow storm motion, flash flooding will be a concern today. Some areas may see over an inch of rain. Storms should die down after sunset in the foothills and Urban Corridor, but could persist through midnight farther east.

Models indicate upper High will move into the Great Basin this weekend, so flow aloft will shift to northwesterly, hence storm motion will follow from the northwest. Saturday still looks like good storm potential, with some heavy thunderstorms and possible flash flooding possible. Sunday looks a little drier, with less coverage and intensity of storms, but precip still possible. Good luck for those doing the Triple Bypass this weekend, unfortunately looks like good chances for getting wet and cold Saturday, better weather for Sunday.

Models suggest a cold front will move south into CO Monday, which will enhance precip chances as some moist upslope flow will combine with residual monsoon moisture to produce some heavy storms from the Divide east. Slightly cooler temps expected Monday into Tuesday. Precip chances still look pretty good on Tuesday as well.

By Wednesday next week, slightly drier conditions as upper High remains in the Great Basin and northwest flow remains over CO. Drier conditions look to persist statewide into late next week, before the upper High is forecast to move east into the central U.S. by next weekend, which would enhance monsoon moisture into CO. Again, the usual ebb and flow of the upper High and monsoon moisture into CO for July. Near daily precip chances and warm temps, so pretty typical July weather for Colorado.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 7/15 update