Back from yet another EAA Air Venture show at Oshkosh, always fun to be part of the world's biggest air show. Even got to see the USAF Thunderbirds (F-16s) practicing on Thursday for their first ever performance at Air Venture.
We should see some warmer and drier conditions across eastern CO this weekend, as precip looks to be confined to the southwest and central mountains as upper level ridge axis remains to our west. Only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the foothills this weekend.
By next week however, expect to see a wetter pattern. Upper level ridge is expected to drift east over eastern CO while a series of weak upper level disturbances move across CO. This will lead to better precip chances for eastern CO Monday through Thursday. Somewhat drier, but still isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible next weekend into early next week.
Models then suggest a stronger upper trough will move across CO from the northwest and bring much cooler temps and heavier precip by late next week. This pattern is in line with a building El Nino pattern, as we tend to see stronger disturbances in late summer and early fall with an El Nino pattern. In general,El Nino patterns bring heavier snow to the foothills, especially in the fall and spring months. But, I still look forward to enjoying the remainder of summer, short as it may be.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther
The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill
"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther
The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill
Upper level low currently centered over west central NV, near Lake Tahoe. Upper ridge axis has moved into eastern CO which will allow monsoon moisture to spill into CO today with weak southwesterly flow aloft. Lots of precip today across the Great Basin into the Rockies associated with the upper level pattern. Precip moved into western CO this morning, and will push east into the foothills and Urban Corridor this afternoon and continue into the plains later this afternoon and evening. Storm motion today will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, so slow moving storms may cause localized flooding. Most areas will receive 0.10 - 0.25 inches of precip, but local amounts up to an inch will be possible, especially along and west of the Divide. Activity may persist into nighttime hours, especially over the plains.
For Tuesday, another active precip day is on tap as upper level pattern remains nearly stationary, so monsoon moisture will create widespread precip across CO. Similar precip amounts from Monday expected Tuesday with storm motion again being from the southwest at 5-15 mph. Temps will remain warm, but abundant cloud cover will keep temps at or slightly below seasonal norms.
By Wednesday, upper level low expected to move into central CA and upper ridge axis will move back over western CO, so models are suggesting a drier pattern for Wednesday into Friday, with only isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mostly along and west of the Divide. Temps to remain near seasonal norms. We could see an increase in precip activity over the weekend as upper ridge axis moves farther east and allows better flow of monsoon moisture into CO, but at this time activity looks fairly mild with mostly isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Could be a few brief heavy showers, but precip amounts look to remain on the light side.
For next week, better monsoon flow looks to favor a fairly active precip cycle as upper ridge remains to our east, especially early in the week. Slightly drier conditions may move in later next week, but hard to predict localized precip that far out. Aforementioned upper trough and cooler pattern for late next week have not persisted in recent model runs, so will scrap that idea that for now. In general, our active monsoon pattern looks to persist at least into mid August.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Too bad future generations aren't here to see all the great things we are spending their $$ on!!
