As is very typical during our summer, we see pulses in the monsoon. The past 2 days have been mostly dry across CO as the upper level ridge axis has been through eastern UT and western CO. This will change the next few days as a weak upper level trough moves east from the west coast, the upper ridge axis will shift eastward into the TX panhandle region. This shift will allow a much better flow of monsoon moisture to move north from Mexico. Satellite imagery is showing a strong surge of monsoon moisture moving into AZ tonight, and will move into eastern UT and western CO on Wednesday. Some very heavy rain will be possible tonight into Wednesday across AZ, eastern UT and western CO with high flash flood potential. The majority of this moisture will remain west of the Divide Wednesday afternoon, but will push east into eastern CO Wednesday evening and night, so best chances for precip in the foothills will be Wednesday evening and night.
Monsoon flow will continue Thursday across CO, so good precip chances again on Thursday. Storm motion both days will be from the west to southwest at 5-15 mph.
By Friday, the upper ridge axis moves west again into western CO, so precip chances remain good west of the Divide, but only slight east of the Divide on Friday. Upper ridge appears to remain from western CO to eastern UT over the weekend, so only isolated showers and thunderstorms forecast for the weekend, with best precip chances along and west of the Divide.
For next week, appears early next week will remain mostly dry for most of CO, with only isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, mostly over the mountains. By late next week, models suggest an upper trough will skirt to our north and bring cooler temps and slightly better precip chances. A return to drier weather is expected for next weekend.
In general, the North American Monsoon is beginning to wane for CO. By late August, the monsoon begins to retreat southward providing drier conditions for most of CO. We still get afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, just not as many and not as much precip with storms in general. Unless a unusual pattern like in last September occurs, September continues the drying pattern as we begin to transition to a more Fall like upper level pattern, with more upper troughs and stronger westerly winds aloft moving south over CO.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Too bad future generations aren't here to see all the great things we are spending their $$ on!!
