wxgeek's weather-Good Precip Chances Through Thursday-Update 8/25

Update Mon Aug 25

Our wet summer pattern will continue this week, at least through Thursday. A combination of monsoon moisture will combine with a vigorous and slow moving upper level trough to provide copious precipitation across most of CO through Thursday. For today, showers and thunderstorms will re-develop over the mountains this afternoon and move east into the foothills and plains. Rainfall amounts today not expected to be that high, except for some isolated storms that could produce up to a half inch of rain. Activity should die down after sunset for most areas.

On Tuesday, upper trough will move into the Great Basin, and we get a good plume of monsoon moisture moving up from the south aided by hurricane Marie, which is currently a category 4 hurricane off the Baja coast. Tuesday could be a very wet day across areas of CO, with some flooding possible. Rainfall amounts between 0.25 and 0.75 inches will be common, with some amounts in the 2-3 inch range possible. Activity will start early and end late with storms continuing into the nighttime hours, especially on the plains.

Wednesday looks to be another wet day, with lingering activity from Tuesday into early Wednesday morning, then a new round of activity developing by early afternoon and persisting into the nighttime hours once again. Precip does not look quite as heavy as Tuesday, but we could still see areas receiving over an inch of rain on Wednesday. Some rivers and streams could see significant rises by Wednesday, so prone areas may see levels rise to near flood stage. Snow level could lower to around 12,000 ft Wednesday night into Thursday morning, so higher peaks could have a fresh layer of white.

Upper trough will pass over CO on Thursday, so expect another active day of showers and thunderstorms into the evening hours. Upper trough looks to finally move east of CO by Thursday night, so warmer and drier weather will follow from Friday through Labor Day. This pattern looks to persist into next week as well. Temps will be below seasonal norms Tuesday through Thursday due to cloud cover and precip associated with upper trough. We should see temps back to seasonal norms by the holiday weekend.

In addition to major hurricane Marie in the eastern Pacific, tropical storm Cristobal has formed in the western Atlantic just east of the Bahama Islands. Cristobal is expected to move north and then northeast and remain offshore from the U.S., although it is forecast to become a category 1 hurricane later this week east of Cape Hateras. Hurricane Marie is forecast to move northwest in the eastern Pacific and weaken as it encounters cooler waters.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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CO will remain under the influence of the North American Monsoon with upper level troughs passing to our north through much of the coming week. Current upper trough will move into the northern plains Monday, while a new upper trough will slide down from the Pacific Northwest early this week towards CO. Good monsoon flow will also persist early this week as upper ridge remains over the southern Plains and additional moisture from a hurricane off Baja will be advected into CO. This combination will provide good precip chances Monday through Thursday for most of CO. Best chances look to be Tuesday and Wednesday as upper trough moves closest to CO these two days. Tuesday could see some heavy rain in areas that could extend into Tuesday night. Upper trough will pass over CO on Wednesday, so snow level could lower to 12,000 ft Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

As upper trough finally moves east of CO Friday, drier and warmer conditions are expected for the Labor Day weekend into early next week. After that a more early Fall like pattern is predicted with a drier zonal flow across CO and the monsoon looks like it will end, which is typical for early September in CO.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 8/25 update