wxgeek's weather-Warm and Dry will Turn Wet and Cooler-Update 9/5

Update Fri Sep 5

Nice steady rain yesterday and last night that dropped 0.70 inches on Conifer Mtn and also dusted higher mountains with an early blanket of snow above about 11,000 - 12,000 ft. Mostly cloudy and cool across eastern CO today, but showers and thunderstorms have formed over the mountains and will move into the foohills this afternoon and evening. Atmosphere on the plains is cool and stable, so not sure if any storms will survive east of the foothills today. Storm motion today will be from the west at 15-25 mph.

For Saturday, temps will warm clsoer to seasonal norms, and isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains and into the foothills by afternoon and into the evening hours. Acivity may edge onto the Urban Corridor, but most expected to remain west of I-25. Sunday should be warmer and have less precip statewide.ome isolated activity possible, but should be mostly confined to areas along and west of the Divide. Slight chance for isolated activity in the foothills.

By Monday, things could get interesting. Hurricane Norbert is currently just west of Cabo San Lucas, and is expected to move up along the Baja coast over the weekend. Norbert will weaken as it encounters cooler waters, but the moisture associated with Norbert is expected to get entrained and move northeast into portions of SoCal, NV, AZ, UT and CO by late Sunday into Monday. For CO, best precip chances will be Monday afternoon and evening. Heaviest precip will likely be across the southwest mountains, but could see some heavy rain across much of CO, as well as flash flooding potential in AZ, UT, NV and SoCal.

For the remainder of next week, models now bring a weak zonal flow into CO versus the upper ridge that was forecast earlier. If this pattern emerges, temps closer to seasonal norms and isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be the pattern through next weekend with some monsoon moisture feeding into CO.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Could be the last 90 degree temps of the year across much of the Front Range today, with temps near the century mark on the plains. This will come to an end soon. Monsoon moisture will make it's way back into CO starting Thursday. The moisture is courtesy of a couple of tropical systems. Dolly has moved into eastern Mexico from the Gulf of Mexico, and a new hurricane, Norbert, has formed south of Baja. These two systems will provide abundant moisture that will move northward the next few days as an upper ridge is centered over the lower Mississippi Valley and an upper trough will dig along the West Coast. CO will begin to see afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms Thursday, with best chances across southwest CO, but activity will move northeast throughout the day and spread into the foothills and plains by Thursday afternoon and evening. Activity could persist overnight, especially on the plains. Storm motion will be from the southwest at 10-20 mph, and precip amounts generally expected to be light, outside of isolated heavier showers.

Precip chances look to remain across CO from Friday through the weekend, and into early next week as upper level pattern and monsoon moisture remain in position. Temps will remain near to slightly below seasonal norms from Thursday into early next week.

Conditions look to dry out and temps warm mid to late next week as upper ridge builds along the West Coast. These conditions should persist into next weekend.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 9/5 update