Very nice Fall day across the state with temps from 5 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages. Moderate northwest flow aloft over the state will contribute to some gusty west to northwest winds the next 48 hours, especially over higher terrain of the mountains and foothills. Warm and dry weather should persist on Tuesday as well.
The wild card for our weather this week will be moisture from remnants of tropical storm Simon that is currently off the central Baja coast. Models struggling to determine the path and impacts from the moisture, but latest models suggest CO could see more precip that previously thought. Best model consensus now brings precip into SoCal and AZ on Tuesday, and then moves moisture into UT and western CO by late Wednesday. Portions of AZ could again see some pretty heavy rain on Tuesday into Wednesday. For CO, precip looks to remain along and west of the Divide on Wednesday, then will spread into eastern CO Wednesday night into Thursday. Western CO could see some heavy rain, while lighter amounts expected for eastern CO. Some models however keep all the precip farther south, so confidence in precip amounts still not very high. Snow level would remain above 10,000 ft, so only higher passes would be impacted. Temps likely to be closer to seasonal norms Thursday.
By Friday, most precip expected to be out of the picture and temps will begin to warm up. Dry and mild weather expected for the coming weekend.
For next week, precip chances return as upper trough moves across CO early next week. Best chances for precip look to be Tuesday and Wednesday, and majority of precip likely to remain on the west side of the Divide with westerly flow aloft. Snow level also looks to remain above 10,000 ft, so minimal winter impact expected at this time. By late next week, upper ridge builds over the inter-mountain region as upper trough digs along the west coast. This would keep CO dry and warm into the following weekend as least.
Also, dynamic models have been indicating for a while that a late season tropical system may move into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. Not sure if this will happen, but certainly warrants keeping an eye on for anyone planning travel to the Gulf Coast region next week.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Strong upper ridge along the west coast is keeping a dry and mild pattern over CO and this pattern is expected tp persist into the coming weekend. Hurricane Simon is appx 300 miles wets of Cabo San Lucas and is forecast to weaken and move northeast across northern Baja on Tuesday. Moisture from Simon will impact AZ and NM later this week, but minimal if any impact expected to CO. Temps will remain above seasonal norms through the coming weekend, with only a chance for showers on Thursday, mostly across the mountains and foothills south of I-70. Otherwise, mild and dry weather is likely to persist across CO through Sunday.
By early next week, a change in the upper level pattern will allow an upper trough to develop across the western U.S. which will bring cooler temps closer to seasonal norms and a chance for precip into CO by Monday and extend into Wednesday or Thursday. Models currently indicate majority of precip would remain along and west of the Divide in westerly flow aloft, but foothills could see some light precip. Snow level looks to remain above 10,000 ft.
Dry and mild weather then looks to return into the following weekend.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Too bad future generations aren't here to see all the great things we are spending their $$ on!!
