wxgeek's weather-Snow Possible Sunday, Dry and Mild Next Week-Update 10/11

Update Sat Oct 11

beautiful Fall day across the state today. Great day to be outside. Sunday won't be quite as nice, especially across the high country. Upper level trough and associated cold front will move into northwest CO Sunday morning, and move east into eastern CO Sunday afternoon. Precip will spread into western CO, mostly north of I-70 Sunday morning with snow level from 9000-10,000 ft. NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the northern and central mountains, including the Front Range mountains from 9 am Sunday through midnight for 4-10 inches of snow which along with strong northwest winds will make travel difficult. Precip will spread east of the Divide Sunday afternoon with showers and isolated thunderstorms possible. Snow level will lower to 7000-8000 ft by late Sunday afternoon, and down to 6000-7000 ft by Sunday evening. Best precip chances for the foothills will be from Noon Sunday through about 8 pm Sunday. System retains northwest flow aloft, so vast majority of precip will be along and west of the Front Range crest. Farther east on the plains higher rain amounts may be possible as effects from westerly donwslope flow diminish. For the foothills, only expecting light precip amounts, with a dusting of snow above 7000 ft possible, and perhaps up to an inch at higher elevations farther west. Most precip will move east of the area after 8 pm Sunday night, with showers lingering on the plains through midnight. After cold front moves through, strong northwest to north winds will previal, with speeds from 15-35 mph possible with higher gusts into Monday morning. As this system moves east on Monday, posisble severe weather is expected across much of the midwest, southern Plains and lower to mid Mississippi Valley. System will have potential to produce damaging thunderstorms and tornadoes and may impact travel across the region.

For next week, models remain consistent in keeping a dry and mild pattern across CO and much of the inter-mountain region. This pattern looks to persist into the following week, with precip possible late into that week, but models have been inconsistent with this.

Elsewhere, super typhoon Vongfong has weakened to a category 1 Typhoon as it passed just east of Okinawa. It will move across Japan over the next 48 hours and bring copious rainfall, but winds jsut below typhoon status.

Lastly, I head off for a 2 week international business trip beginning Monday, so I may be limited in my ability to post updates until my return stateside Oct 24. As my wife and I celebrate our 11 year wedding anniversary today, we took a beautiful hike on the Brookside trail outside Bailey, and found some wonderful late season color seen below.

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Nice soaking for much of CO yesterday. Most foothill areas received between 0.50 and 1.0 inches of rain, while some areas along the Palmer Divide to Pueblo received 1-3 inches causing some flooding. Precip and clouds gradually moving east and south out of the state, with a few isolated showers possible over the High Country and foothills this afternoon and evening.

Saturday looks to be a very nice day with mostly sunny skies and temps near seasonal norms. Sunday will not be as nice. fast moving upper level trough and associated cold front will move across CO during the day on Sunday. Clouds will increase during the morning and precip will begin late morning in the northern mountains. Precip quickly spreads east and south during the afternoon and evening hours. Foothills should see precip begin shortly after noon and persist into the evening hours. System is fast moving, so precip amounts expected to be light. Snow level will begin at 9000-10,000 ft Sunday morning but will lower quickly as front moves through. Snow level will be down to 6000-7000 ft by Sunday evening. Currently only expecting 1-3 inches over the mountains, with a dusting to an inch over the foothills. Precip should be out of the picture between 8 pm and midnight. Currently do not think snow will cause any travel issues in the foothills, mountains may see some accumulating snow over passes.

For next week and beyond, an upper ridge will look to persist across the central Rockies. As systems move to our north, some clouds and cooler temps will occur, but overall CO looks to have mostly dry weather for all of next week, and this will likely continue the following week as well. Temps will mostly remain at or above seasonal norms, with temps near seasonal norms as systems pass to our north. Long range models suggest a pattern change towards the end of October, but not much confidence in that at this point. Overall, snowfall likely to be below our average for October, which is around 18 inches on Conifer Mountain. So far we have received 1 inch in October, but rainfall is now at 0.87 inches for October, which is close to our average of 1.18 inches for the month.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 10/11 update