wxgeek's weather-Dry and Mild Weather Through Next Week-Update 11/6

Update Nov 6

Very nice day across the state once again, with temps 5-15 degrees above seasonal norms. The Great Lakes and Northeast are covering the lousy weather for the country today.

Models continue to refine the forecast for the rest of this week and next week. Latest runs now keep nearly all of CO dry on Friday, whereas previous runs had some light precip. Cold front will still move across northeast CO Friday afternoon/evening, but now looks like front will be a dry front, so only a very slight chance for showers mostly over the northern mountains and far northeast plains Friday evening. Temps will drop at least 10 degrees with frontal passage, so cooler Friday night into Saturday morning. Some gusty west to northwest winds ahead of front late tonight into Friday morning will be present, mostly in the 15-35 mph range.

The weekend looks spectacular, lots of sunshine with temps rebounding back above seasonal norms by Sunday. Some gusty westerly winds will be likely Sunday ahead of our next system, so winds of 15-35 mph will be possible Sunday.

For next week, models have slowed and dried the incoming system a bit from yesterday. Now looks like cold front associated with upper level trough will move south across eastern CO Monday afternoon. Behind front, moist upslope flow will develop and temps will drop dramatically, leading to a chance for light snow with best chances for areas north of I-70. Arctic air now looks to extend up to about 10,000 ft, so expect fog and reduced visibilities in the foothills Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Currently looks like only a dusting of snow likely for most areas, with perhaps up to an inch in some areas. Arctic air mass looks to remain in place across eastern CO (from the Divide east) through next Thursday. Air mass will modify and warm a bit, but expect temps to remain well below seasonal norms for much of next week. Little if any additional snow is now forecast beyond Tuesday morning, but low clouds and fog may persist for much of next week on the plains and foothills. Cold air may shrink beyond next Tuesday, so higher foothill areas may be above the cold air and cloud deck.

Models now build upper ridge and keep CO dry and mild from next Friday into the following week. Still no signs of a significant snowstorm for CO.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Wed Nov 5

Very nice Fall weather across the state today with temps 5-15 degrees above seasonal norms. This mild weather will persist on Thursday as well with temps remaining well above seasonal norms.

Some changes on tap for Friday. The day should start out mild and mostly sunny, but an upper level trough and associated cold front will move through the upper ridge along the West Coast and dip down across CO from the northern Rockies late Friday. Thus clouds and winds will increase across CO during the day on Friday, leading to a slight chance for showers across the northern and central mountains, as well as the foothills and northeast plains Friday afternoon into Friday night. Areas north of I-70 will have the best chances to see precip, but any precip will likely be light. Snow level looks to be around 8000-9000 ft during the day, lowering to 6000-7000 ft Friday night, so a light dusting is possible in some foothill areas and maybe an inch or two in the mountains.

Weekend weather is looking mostly sunny. Temps Saturday will be near seasonal norms in the wake of cold front from Friday, then at or above seasonal norms on Sunday. Sunday mountains and foothills could see some gusty westerly winds as lee side trough develops over the eastern plains.

As often happens this time of year, models have changed the forecast significantly for next week. Latest model runs now drop an upper level trough from western Canada southeast into the northern and central Rockies early next week. Associated with this, some cold Canadian air will plunge south on the east side of the Divide from Montana to Colorado and into the Northern and Central Plains. Forecast now calls for cold front to move through CO Monday morning east of the Divide and for upslope surface flow and light snow to develop over eastern CO by late Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Snow level will be down to plains level with very cold surface air in place. Cold air mass will extend up to about 14,000 ft, so deep enough to produce snow in the foothills and along the east slopes of the Divide. Snow and cold air looks to persist Monday night into Tuesday morning, with gradual clearing Tuesday afternoon. For snow amounts, likely will remain on the light side as arctic air masses are relatively dry, so at this time I would expect snow amount to be between 1/2 inch and 2 inches for most areas. Temps will be quite cold, with temps Monday night from 0 to 15F, and high temps Tuesday in the 10-20F range. We could even see our first sub-zero temps of the season in some areas.

Models then slide a weak system from the west across CO Wednesday into Thursday morning. This could bring additional precip to CO, with the mountains seeing best chances, but foothills and plains could also see some additional snow, as snow level would remain at plains level for eastern CO, while it could be higher on the west side of the Divide, in the 7000-8000 ft range. Models then continue precip chances next weekend statewide with snow level 7000-8000 ft.

As always, especially in a situation like this, models may change the forecast often, so stay tuned for future updates. If the current forecast holds, Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes could be slick.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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After our brief bout with winter on Monday, dry and mild weather will return to CO and persist through the weekend and most of next week. Models suggest an upper level ridge will persist from the West Coast to the Great Basin for the next 7-10 days. This will cause in general the jet stream and storms to move into western Canada before dropping southeast into the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. As stronger systems move to our north, they will flatten the ridge and cause stronger winds over CO as well as a dip in temps as cold fronts skirt the state. This will happen late this Friday as a system moves to our north. Expect the possibility of light showers across the northeast corner of the state Friday evening and night, and cooler temps east of the Divide Saturday. Some gusty winds will be possible ahead of this system on Friday.

In general, temps will be mostly at or above seasonal norms through late next week. Cooler and wet weather will occur across the Great Lakes and Northeast where upper level trough will be in place. Models indicate the next chance for precip in CO will be next Friday as a system moves through the upper ridge position. At this time, system looks quite weak and would only bring light precip if any to the state. Longer range models persist the dry and mild pattern into the following week as well. Unless a significant pattern change occurs, November is looking quite dry statewide. This seems to be a trend in CO when the ENSO pattern is Neutral, as the past 2 Novembers have only yielded 3 inches of snow on Conifer Mountain. As we continue to be in an ENSO Neutral pattern, looks like this will persist. I am hoping that the building El Nino will fully appear in December so we can get into a snowier winter pattern. If the current dry pattern persists much longer, the term increased fire danger will have to come back into the vocabulary as grasses have now dried out. Wildfires in December and January have occurred in the past in CO, and can become dangerous when gusty Chinook winds blow in the foothills and adjacent plains.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 11/6 update