wxgeek's weather-Warmer Friday, More Cold and Snow This Wknd-Update 11/14

Update Fri Nov 14

Warming temps across eastern CO today as a more westerly flow regime scours out arctic air. Slight break in the snow over the mountains today, but snow will increase this afternoon and tonight again over the mountains, with heaviest amounts across the southwest mountains. Winter Storm Warning is in effect along and west of the Divide through Saturday night, while a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 2 pm Saturday for the Front Range mountains. There will not be much a break in mountain snowfall from this afternoon through Saturday night, with amounts of 10-20 inches along and west of the Divide, with 5-10 inches to the Front Range Mountains.

For our foothills, cold system from the northwest will move south into CO Saturday morning into Saturday night. Front will move through Saturday morning around 8-10 am, with upslope and snow to follow. Snow likely to move in around Noon and persist into Saturday night. Models now indicate some enhancement in the system later Saturday night and farther south, so expect heavier amounts from the Palmer Divide south on the east side of the Divide. Snow amounts in general will be on the light side, with 2-5 inches expected in the foothills and Palmer Divide, heaviest amounts south of I-70. Expecting 1-3 inches along the Urban Corridor and plains, with heaviest amounts south of I-70. Snow will end between midnight and 6 am Sunday, persisting later farther south. Cold temps again Sunday morning, but will gradually clear and warm by Sunday afternoon.

For next week, Monday through Wednesday will be mostly dry statewide with temps near seasonal norms to slightly below. Models now have a weak system sliding across the state Thursday into Friday morning that could bring light snow to the mountains and eastern CO. Next weekend looks mostly dry, perhaps some flurries in the mountains with temps near seasonal norms.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Two distinct weather regimes across CO today separated by the Divide. On the east side, clear and cold with arctic air stubbornly giving way, while snow on the west side from a Pacific system. Snow will intensify this evening and tonight from the Front Range Crest west, with a Winter Weather Advisory for the Front Range mountains, and a Winter Storm Warning along and west of the Divide. Snow amounts of 4-8 inches in the Front Range Mountains with 6-18 inches along and west of the Divide, hence tough travel conditions if heading west. Western foothill areas may see a light dusting tonight, but otherwise dry on the east side with cold temps again tonight, although not nearly as cold as the past 2 nights.

The next 72 hours will feature a complex weather patten across the state. On Friday, snow diminishes in the mountains in the morning, but another system from the west will increase snow across the southwest mountains Friday afternoon and spread across all mountains Friday night. An additional 6-12 inches in the southwest mountains, with another 2-6 in the central and northern mountains. Snow level will range from 8000 ft near US 50 to 6000 ft along I-70. East of the Divide will see temps above freezing with partly cloudy skies on Friday. Westerly winds should provide downslope warming with gusty winds at times.

By Saturday, a new system from the northwest will begin to affect CO. System will feature another strong cold front with arctic air behind it, as well as good upper level dynamics across the state. Cold front will move south across northern CO Saturday morning, and bring upslope flow to eastern CO with snow developing by late morning. Moderate to heavy snow will develop in the northern mountains Saturday morning and move south during the day. Snow will persist across all of CO during the afternoon and into Saturday night, diminishing after midnight as system moves south. For snow amounts, looks like another 6-18 inches for the northern and central mountains, 2-6 inches possible for the foothills and Palmer Divide, with 1-3 inches possible for the Urban Corridor and plains. Temps will once again be very cold Saturday night as arctic air fills in, and a cold start on Sunday.

For next week, CO remains under cool northwest flow aloft early next week, so mostly dry with temps remaining below seasonal norms. By Wednesday though Friday, warmer temps will move into the state, with slight chances for some flurries over the mountains.

Next chance for more significant precip looks to be next weekend as some stronger Pacific systems are forecast to move across CO. In general, the pattern is beginning to resemble a more typical El Nino pattern with strong zonal flow across the Pacific.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 11/14 update