wxgeek's weather-Dryer and warmer weather this week

Update Tue Nov 18

High wind event in progress along the foothills, with HWW in effect for winds generally in the 20-45 mph range, with gusts to 70 mph possible. Strongest winds likely to be north of I-70 as strong northwest flow aloft moves over CO. Winds should diminish by Wednesday morning, with dry and warmer conditions expected through Friday. As weak systems from the West Coast move through upper ridge position over the Great Basin, clouds and breezy conditions will be present across CO. By Saturday, precip will be possible west of the Divide with snow level in the 7000-8000 ft range, but only light amounts expected. A stronger system will move into CO Saturday night into Sunday, which will bring a new round of snow to the mountains, and increase chances east of the Divide on Sunday. Snow level will be down to plains level with amounts of 3-8 inches possible in the mountains, while only a dusting to an inch or two will be possible in the foothills.

More flurries will be possible on Monday in the High Country, but will remain breezy and dry east of the Divide with temps near seasonal norms. This pattern will persist on Tuesday with more mountain snow, but mostly dry and breezy in the foothills as northwest flow aloft prevails over CO.

Models then suggest dry and warmer weather statewide Wednesday through Saturday next week as upper ridge builds over CO, with temps at or above seasonal norms. Next precip chances will be next Sunday.

Models have changed their tune for next week for the U.S. as well. Heavy precip will be likely this Sunday across much of the eastern third of the country, then cooler weather but much drier Monday through Thanksgiving day, just some snow across the Great Lakes with more lake effect snow into Thanksgiving. So lower chances for major travel delays outside of Sunday.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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CO remains under a cool and brisk northwest flow aloft which will persist through Tuesday, so dry weather statewide with temps remaining below seasonal norms, along with some gusty northwest winds, especially across the high country and higher foothills.

By Wednesday, a warmer air mass will replace our arctic air mass and bring temps to or above seasonal norms for Wednesday through Friday. A weak Pacific system will bring a chance for light snow or flurries along and west of the Divide Friday into Saturday. East of the Divide will remain dry with temps at or slightly above seasonal norms.

By Sunday, models forecast a stronger Pacific system to move across CO and bring a chance for snow statewide. Snow likely to begin Saturday night west of the Divide, then across all of Co Sunday into Monday morning. Amounts do not look at that great at this time, but mountains may get 5-10 inches, while foothills and plains look to get from 1-4 inches, but that will be refined during the week.

For Thanksgiving week, models suggest mostly dry and mild weather across CO Monday and Tuesday, then a system from the northwest may bring snow to portions of CO Wednesday evening into Thursday morning with temps below seasonal norms. Friday into the weekend looks dry with temps near seasonal norms.

For anyone traveling Thanksgiving week, major storm looks to impact the eastern third of the country Monday into Wednesday. Very heavy rain and possibly strong thunderstorms will move slowly east across the country, while snow will impact the Great Lakes and upper Midwest. Rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches will be possible across large areas of the Southwest, Mid Atlantic and Northeast Monday into Tuesday. All of this could dramatically snarl air travel during a very busy travel period. Travelers should stay informed about potential delays and cancellations.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 11/19 Update