wxgeek's weather-Thanksgiving Forecast-Update 11/26

Update Wed Nov 26

Snow flurries diminishing on the plains and mountains this morning, and general clearing will prevail by afternoon. Winds have also died down, although brisk northwest flow aloft remains over CO today, so gusty northwest winds at higher elevations still likely. Thanksgiving day will feature mostly sunny skies and warmer temps statewide. Mountain wave will likely develop late Thursday and bring some gusty Chinook winds to the foothills Thursday evening into Friday morning. Speeds not expected to get above 50 mph, so in other words, light breezes if you live in South Park. Fair and mild weather is expected to persist through this weekend statewide. Temps likely to be above seasonal averages Thursday through Saturday.

On Sunday, a system that will bring snow to the northern Rockies on Saturday will push a mostly dry cold front into northeast CO, so cooler temps on Sunday, but little if any precip expected. best chances will be northern mountains and far northeast plains. Monday and Tuesday should be dry and mild with temps back near seasonal norms.

Next chance for precip will be next Wednesday into Thursday. System from the West Coast will move into western CO late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and being snow west of the Divide.Snow level looks to be 6000-7000 ft. System will push east during the day on Wednesday and bring a chance for snow to areas east of the Divide. Models still uncertain how much snow will fall east of the Divide. Solutions have ranged from a light dusting to a few inches the past few runs. Best chances will be from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday afternoon for snow east of the Divide. Best guess currently is from 1/2 to 2 inches for the foothills, but will need to wait for later runs to refine the forecast. Mountains west of the Divide could pick of an additional 5-12 inches from Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon. After that, models suggest upper ridge will dominate the weather pattern across the Inter-Mountain West into mid December, meaning mild temps and little if any precip expected for the first 7-12 days of December. Looks like November will end with 6 inches of snow on Conifer Mountain, so another month below average snowfall. Seasonal snowfall stands at 11.5 inches through November, while our average is around 28 inches through November, so about 41% of average snowfall so far this season. Last year was even worse with only 9.5 inches through November. From and ENSO perspective, we are still in a Nuetral state, trending towards a weak El Nino. It appears that a Nuetral ENSO pattern brings decent snow to the mountains, but well below average east of the Divide in the Fall. If a weak El Nino does develop (58% probability from CPC), then we can hope to expect better snowfall from late December through April, but will have to see if the weak El Nino actually develops.

For holiday travelers, major winter storm in progress across the East Coast. Rain this morning has turned to sleet and snow across much of the Northeast with de-icing operations underway at major terminals. Ground delay programs are in effect for LGA, JFK, PHL, PIT, DTW and BOS with delays up to 3 hours. Some flight cancellations have occurred, but airlines are trying to operate a full schedule. System will be the worst this afternoon for the NY area then into New England this evening. Conditions clear out tonight.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Around this time of year we think of what we are thankful for, and I am always thankful for weather. It keeps me employed, and without weather our planet would be a rather dreadful place to live.

Around CO today, more snow in the mountains, and high winds in the foothills and Urban Corridor. Strong northwest flow aloft bringing more snow to the mountains along with gusty northwest winds. East of the Divide, downslope winds will remain very strong today as strong winds aloft combine with good cross mountain pressure gradient to produce west to northwest winds of 35-50 mph with gusts to 90 mph possible. NWS has a High Wind Warning in effect through 5 am Wednsday. Wind reports in Boulder and Larimer counties have been from 50 to 83 mph today, with a 70 mph wind gust reported near Evergreen. Strongest winds will be north of I-70 in Boulder and Larimer counties, but JeffCo foothills could see some damage from strong winds. Models suggest winds will remain strong through this evening, then die down after midnight. Mountains expected to receive another 5-10 inches of snow today, so a nice base of 2-3 feet for skiers now. Some snow is possible across the plains this afternoon and evening, but downslope winds will keep most snow away from the foothills and Urban Corridor, except for some blow off snow in western foothills. Another tough travel day across CO mountains.

Wednesday is looking drier, with snow flurries in the mountains in the morning, clearing by afternoon. East of the Divide, mostly sunny with lighter winds and warmer temps. Thursday through Sunday looks dry and mild, with temps at or above seasonal norms statewide. Some breezy conditions at times in the mountains and foothills, but good travel weather statewide. Next precip chances look to be next Tuesday/Wednesday, with vast majority of snow remaining along and west of the Divide. Little if any snow expected east of the Front Range Crest at this time. Model then keep CO dry and mild from next Wednesday into next weekend and beyond. No major snow events for eastern CO in our near or extended future at this time.

Attention is required for anyone traveling to the East Coast the next few days. a major winter storm is imminent for the East Coast. A wave will develop along a cold front over FL today, and the wave will develop into a major surface low off the Carolinas tonight and move along the Northeast U.S. coast Wednesday. This is a classic NorEaster development, but will move along quickly so the rain and snow amounts will be somewhat limited due to the short duration. However, major travel impacts are to be expected as this will occur on one of the busiest travel days in our nation. System will bring very heavy rain tonight to the Southeast, and then will move into the Mid Atlantic region Wednesday morning, bringing heavy rain and wind to coastal areas, and snow inland. System moves into the Northeast Wednesday afternoon and into New England Wednesday night. As is typical with these systems, very hard to determine the exact rain/snow line and when precip turns from rain to snow in some areas near the coast. Likely to be a mixture of rain, sleet and snow within 50-100 miles of the coast, with all snow farther inland. Areas in the eastern Appalachians could see 6-18 inches of snow, while inland areas could see 4-8 inches of snow, and coastal areas less than 1-2 inches. Rainfall amounts could be in the 2-5 inch range along the coast though, and coupled with strong northeast winds could cause coastal flooding. My feeling at this point is that major airport hubs such as CLT, PHL, IAD, JFK, LGA and BOS will attempt to operate a full schedule, but will be limited by IFR conditions, snow removal and de-icing operations which will create very long delays. Ultimately carriers will cancel some flights leaving some stranded travelers, who will have a hard time finding space on later flights. Anyone traveling in this area should keep a close eye on the situation and monitor flights with your carrier. Weather moves out by Wednesday night, so carriers will begin to recover on Thursday and weather remains good through the weekend outside of some Lake Effect snow in the Great Lakes.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 11/26 update