Update Sun Dec 14
Upper level low currently over southeast CO. Moisture from the Southern Plains is moving into eastern CO with some thunderstorms, and this moisture is pushing into the Front Range, so snow looks to continue across the Urban Corridor and foothills through this afternoon. Currently at 3 inches on Conifer Mountain, and expect an additional 1-4 inches through this evening. Snow should dissipate after about 5-6 pm in the foothills and Urban Corridor, but will persist in the mountains and eastern plains through Monday morning. Mountain areas have received 3-12 inches overnight, so travel through the mountains are winter driving conditions. Roads currently just wet below 6000-7000 ft, but snow and ice packed above that. Snow level will lower to plains level this afternoon, so some slush possible on roads below 6000 ft later today and tonight as temps drop. Expect road crews will have roads in decent shape for the Monday morning commute, but there still could be a few slick spots, so commute may take a little longer.
For next week, Monday looks mostly dry and cool, maybe a few lingering flurries in the mountains. Next system from the Pacific will impact CO from Wednesday into Thursday. Mountains will get the most snow from this system, with an additional 2-6 inches possible, while only light amounts expected in the foothills and plains. Temps look to remain at or below seaosnal norms most of the coming week. Next system to impact CO will be from Saturday night into Monday morning. Models suggest the potential for this system to be a good snow event for eastern CO.
For the week of xmas, models are beginning to paint a snowier picture. Upper ridge amplifies along the West Coast, which puts CO under a moist northwesterly flow aloft, brining Pacific moisture across the state from Tuesday through xmas day. Series of systems will move through, with a system on xmas eve and xmas day having the potential to be a big snow event. Still a long ways in the future, but models are beginning to be more consistent with this pattern. Thus, the building El Nino looks to be showing up as previously suggested in late December. So for anyone traveling the week of xmas, stay aware of latest forecasts as travel could be difficult across the state.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Well, the models still have some significant differences when it comes to precip for eastern CO this weekend. Depending on which model you believe, precip forecast ranges from very light to several inches of snow.
Another dry and very warm December day across CO today. Temps near record levels in many areas. Stong southerly winds aloft expected to move into CO tonight, so gusty south to southwest surface winds likely to develop tonight into Saturday afternoon. West Coast system has moved into SoCal ands NV today. Models move the upper trough into the Great Basin on Saturday, then develop a closed low over northern NM on Sunday, and into the TX/OK panhandle Sunday evening. Models also develop a surface low across northeast NM and the OK/TX panhandle during the day on Sunday. Precip will move into western CO Saturday late morning to afternoon and presist into Sunday morning. Snow level will begin in the 7000-8000 ft range Saturday afternoon, lowering to 5500-6500 ft Sunday morning. Mountains west of the Divide look to receive 6-16 inches of snow from this event.
For eastern CO, still not very confident in the forecast. WRF has more precip than any other model, while the NAM and GFS are drier, but all models deposit some precip to eastern CO on Sunday. Looks like precip will begin east of the Front Range Crest Sunday morning, with upslope flow and precip continuing through Sunday evening. Snow level will be from 5000-6000 ft during the event, so some areas of the plains may get mostly rain, with other areas and the Urban Corridor getting a mix, with higher elevations gettinmg mostly snow. With warm temps this week, areas below 6000 ft likely only to see accumulations on grassy surfaces. Even at higher elevations, initial snow may melt and then freeze underneath additional snow, so roads could become quite slick by Sunday afternoon and evening. For snow amounts, looks like 2-6 inches possible in the foothills, and 1/2 to 2 inches along the Urban Corridor and plains. Southeast and south central CO likely to receive higher precip amounts from this system, with far northeast CO receiving the least.
On Monday we should see dry conditions but temps below seasonal norms for a change. For the rest of next week, another Pacific system will hit CA Monday, but majority of energy goes south of CO, so mountains may see some snow Wednesday into Thursday, but eastern CO looks to remain mostly dry, any precip would be very light. Another Pacific system will hit CA on Friday, and again models dig it south of CO next weekend, so only slight chance for light snow next weekend for CO.
For xmas week, models now keep CO mostly dry the entire week into the following weekend
