wxgeek's weather-Weather roller coaster this week-Update 1/8

Update Thu Jan 8

We're at the top of the ride today, sunny and warm statewide. Some gusty westerly winds in the High Country and foothills today, with mostly easterly winds along and east of the I-25 corridor. Get ready to take the plunge this evening into another arctic surge. Arctic air mass will push south into eastern CO late this afternoon and evening with current cold front in central WY. Northeast winds, low clouds, fog, light snow and freezing drizzle will fill into eastern CO this evening, between 5 pm and 8 pm and push up against the foothills. Model forecast soundings predict this surge will be deeper, up to 9000-10,000 ft and thus will push farther west than Tuesday's push. Believe nearly all foothill locations will be in the clouds and cold air with this surge. Because air mass is deeper, we could see up to 1 inch of snow accumulation, although heaviest accumulations will be at lower elevations. Freezing fog will be common in foothills from this evening into Friday morning, so tough driving conditions with some ice and snow on roads. Conditions will begin to improve Friday afternoon with clearing by evening, so commute back up Friday should be ok. Another slow and slick drive down on Friday morning, and could be for late evening commuters Thursday evening.

The weekend continues to look very nice, with mostly sunny skies and temps near seasonal norms. Some snow will be possible over western CO, mostly west of the Divide Saturday night into Sunday with perhaps a few inches of accumulation possible. Sunday night, yet another arctic surge will push into eastern CO with some light snow and freezing drizzle possible from the foothills west, so could be yet another tough commute Monday morning. In addition, upper level trough will move from the Great Basin into CO Monday into Tuesday. This will have snow develop over western CO Monday into Tuesday. Latest models dig the upper trough south of CO now, so snow would be confined to southwest, central and south central mountains. Foothill areas south of I-70 could see some light snow on Tuesday, but amounts now would be light, generally less than an inch or two. Mountains south of I-70 could see several inches Monday into Tuesday.

The remainder of next week Wednesday into next weekend looks dry statewide with temps above seasonal norms. Longer range models a bit uncertain on weather the following week. Models have vacillated from Pacific systems moving into CO to an upper ridge building and keeping storms farther north. Will have to wait and see what transpires.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Wed Jan 7

Cool and cloudy/foggy day across eastern CO today below 7000-8000 ft. Cloud deck is beginning to lift and clouds will begin to scour out this afternoon but temps will remain well below seasonal norms. West of the foothills, mostly sunny day although some fog in mountain valleys with dense fog reported at Eagle and Gunnison this morning. Skies should be mostly clear statewide by this evening with temps warming as arctic air moves east. Some gusty westerly winds will be possible tonight into Thursday morning in the foothills as lee surface trough forms over eastern CO.

Thursday will be mostly sunny with temps back above seasonal norms statewide. Some breezy winds through the afternoon in the foothills. By Thursday night, another arctic surge will push a cold front into eastern CO, so very similar situation as today. Low clouds, freezing fog and light snow will develop across the plains after midnight and push east into the Urban Corridor and foothills by early Friday morning. Models suggest arctic air may be a bit higher with this push, possibly up to 9000 to 10,000 ft so nearly all foothill locations will feel this next surge. Any snow amounts again expected to be less than 1/2 inch, but ice fog and freezing drizzle may create slick roads. CDOT and County crews did a great job treating roads today, and hopefully will do the same on Friday to make major roads just wet, but expect another longer than average commute on Friday morning. Cold air and clouds will diminish Friday afternoon with clearing skies by evening.

For the weekend, models suggest a dry weekend east of the Divide with temps near seasonal norms. West of the Divide, dry Saturday but some snow may develop Saturday night into Sunday with a few inches possible.

For next week, models continue to suggest an upper trough moving across CO Monday into Tuesday. This will bring additional snow chances west of the Divide Sunday night into Tuesday, then bring snow to eastern CO on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Mountains could see 6-12 inches from Saturday into Tuesday, with the foothills seeing 2-5 inches Tuesday. Forecast will be fine tuned this weekend. Wednesday through next weekend looks dry and mild statewide.

The central and eastern U.S. will remain in the deep freeze this week as upper ridge along the West Coast is dropping the jet-stream and arctic air farther south east of the Rockies. Temps below zero across much of the northern Plains and upper Midwest today, with another surge on the way later this week. Freezing temps expected to make it all the way to the Gulf Coast.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Wind yesterday, sunny and warm today, cold with snow/freezing drizzle Wednesday, Nice Thursday, More cold and snow Friday.... Don't let your hands off the steering wheel on this ride, you may need them.

Sunny and mild day statewide today as the big thaw and melt continues. Some road issue this morning due to melting snow re-freezing on roads overnight. Winds have died down today with speeds in the High Country in the 15-40 mph range today after 100 mph gusts of yesterday. As very cold arctic air mass pushes into the central and eastern U.S., cold front will back door (move from east to west) into eastern CO tonight after midnight. Cold air, low clouds and some light snow and freezing drizzle will make it's way west into the lower foothills, up to about 7000-7500 ft. Accumulations not expected to exceed 1/2 inch, but freezing drizzle and ice fog could pose more of an issue for the Wednesday morning commute, so roads could become slick and could snarl morning traffic. Higher elevation foothill residents not likely to be impacted by this system as warmer temps and sunshine will prevail above 8000 ft and farther west into the mountains. Temps across eastern CO will remain below seasonal norms Wednesday, as cold air and clouds begin to scour out in the afternoon, so evening commute should be ok.

Thursday will be mostly sunny and mild with temps rising above seasonal norms. Another arctic surge will push into eastern CO Thursday night, and models forecast this air to make it higher into the foothills, from 8000-9000 ft. Thus, more cold air, low clouds, snow and possible freezing drizzle on tap for Friday morning with conditions expected to persist into Friday evening. Could see up to 1 inch of snow from this system for areas below 8000 ft. Thus, commute Friday morning cold be slick and slow once again, with more freezing fog in the foothills. As these arctic systems push into the central and eastern U.S., some very cold temps expected across much of the country.

For the weekend, latest models have removed precip from CO, but could still see some flurries in the High Country each day. Temps expected to be near seasonal norms, so should be a nice day for the Broncos game on Sunday with temps in the low 40's. For other NFL playoff games, Seattle expected to be cloudy with a chance for drizzle or light rain Saturday with temp near 50. New England will be cold Saturday but dry, with temps in the low to mid 20's. Green Bay expected to be very Green Bay like on Sunday, dry but cold with temps in the 10-15 range.

For next week, models bring an upper level trough into the Great Basin Monday and move it across CO Tuesday. Thus, snow chances increase for western CO late Monday into Tuesday morning, with snow spreading into eastern CO Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Mountains could see 6-12 inches of snow while foothills and plains could see several inches, but still a long ways off and models have been inconsistent with this period. Beyond that, model suggest Pacific systems will break through the following week which would bring snow to CO, especially the mountains.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 1/7 update

Bump for 1/8 update