wxgeek's weather-Mild/Mostly Dry Wknd, More Snow/cold next wk-Update 1/11

Update Sun Jan 11

Mostly cloudy day with snow in the High Country that has moved into the foothills this afternoon. Still expecting less than 1 inch for foothill areas today. Cold front associated with arctic air is beginning to move south into northeast CO this afternoon. Temps currently in the low 40's on the plains, so initial precip may fall as rain. Low clouds and precip is expected to move south behind front later this afternoon and evening with precip turning to snow by evening. Broncos fans could see a mix of light rain and snow during the game today. Arctic air should extend up to 9000-10,000 ft so expect combination of ice fog and light snow in the foothills this afternoon into tonight, thus roads likely to become slick. Snow will diminish in the High Country tonight, but persist across eastern CO into Monday morning, then precip and clouds will gradually diminish with some clearing by afternoon, although temps will remain below seasonal norms from the foothills east. In the High Country, mostly dry Monday.

By Monday evening, upper level trough will move southeast into the 4 Corners region and increase snow across western CO into Monday night. Could be some heavy snow at times, especially in the southwest mountains. Snow will move east during the day on Tuesday moving into the foothills by late morning and spreading onto the plains by early afternoon. Snow likely to persist in the foothills and plains into Tuesday night, clearing by early Wednesday morning. Mountains could see 4-9 inches from the system Monday into Tuesday, with foothills areas picking up 2-5 inches, and plains 1-3 inches. Thus, commute on Monday morning, and then Tuesday evening could be much slower than usual with slick roads.

Models continue to forecast dry and mild weather from Wednesday into Saturday with temps well above seasonal norms by late in the week. By Sunday, models suggest an upper trough will begin to move towards CO bringing a chance for snow across western CO Sunday night, with snow spreading into eastern CO Monday into Tuesday night. Foothills could see several inches from this system. Latest models then suggest clearing Wednesday into Thursday next week, with more snow possible next Friday into Saturday.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Update Sat Jan 10

Nice day across the state with temps above seasonal norms most areas. Snow will move into western CO overnight but should remain mostly along and west of the Divide with some snow as far east as the Front Range Crest by Sunday morning. Snow amounts overnight look to be in the 1-3 inch range, with heaviest amount west of Vail Pass. On Sunday, light snow may persist much of the day west of the Front Range Crest, but will diminish by Sunday evening. For eastern CO, latest models now suggest arctic front will move south into eastern CO by Sunday afternoon and evening, so earlier than previous models indicated, and similar to our two arctic intrusions this week. Looks like low clouds, fog, light snow and freezing drizzle will be possible by late Sunday afternoon and likely by Sunday evening with clouds and precip moving into the foothills up to 9000-10,000 ft. Thus, the forecast for the Broncos game has shifted a bit. Game should start out dry with temp near 41, then as the game progresses, northeast winds and clouds move in with light snow and/or freezing drizzle possible by the end of the game with temp near 30 by the end of the game. Arctic weather will persist overnight Sunday and begin to clear by late Monday morning. Thus, the Monday morning commute could be another slick and slow one. Western CO should be mostly dry Monday morning into Monday evening.

By Monday night, upper level trough from the Pacific Northwest will begin to impact CO. Latest models have slowed this system and kept it farther north, so more of an impact to CO weather. Snow will move into western CO Monday night and move east to the Front Range Crest by Tuesday morning. Snow could be moderate to heavy at times Monday night in the High Country. Snow then moves east into eastern CO during the day on Tuesday and continues into Tuesday night, with clearing by Wednesday morning. For snow amounts from Monday night into Wednesday morning, mountains look to pick up an additional 3-8 inches with central and southwest mountains getting the highest amounts. For the foothiils, we could see 2-5 inches with heaviest amounts south of I-70, and Urban Corridor and plains could see 1-3 inches. If snow begins early Tuesday morning in the foothills, roads could be slick for the morning commute, and roads should definitely be snow and ice packed for the Tuesday evening commute, so a couple of long commute to start the week next week.

Models indicate dry and mild weather statewide Wednesday through Saturday next week with temps well above seasonal norms by late next week. Latest model guidance brings a chance for precip back into CO next Sunday into the following Tuesday, then a chance for a more significant system late that week. However, models have been terribly inconsistent with this time period, so don't trust much at this point.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Arctic air and clouds beginning to scour out from eastern CO after a thin coating of ice and snow last night. Temps will remain below normal east of the foothills, while lots of sun and mild temps westward.

For the weekend, Saturday looks dry and mild statewide, with temps near seasonal norms most areas. A weak upper level trough will bring some clouds and snow into western CO Saturday night into Sunday afternoon, with perhaps 1-3 inches possible along and west of the Divide. Weather for the Broncos game should be clear with temps in the low 40's and light winds. Sunday night another arctic front will push into eastern CO bringing cold temps, low clouds, fog, light snow and freezing drizzle to areas from the foothills east. This system looks to hit right around dawn Monday morning, so just in time to snarl the morning commute. Arctic air should be up to around 9000-10,000 ft similar to today, and looks to persist into the late afternoon or evening hours. while this is occurring, upper level trough will move from the Great Basin into CO/NM. This will bring additional snow to western CO from Sunday night into Tuesday evening. On Monday snow from this system will remain mostly along and west of the Divide. On Tuesday, snow moves farther east into eastern CO, but mostly south of I-70. Foothill areas south of I-70 could see from a dusting to 2 inches, with heaviest amounts farther south. Mountain areas of southwest and south central CO could see an additional 3-7 inches of snow Monday into Tuesday.

Wednesday through Sunday next week looks dry and mild statewide, with temps at or above seasonal norms.

Models still struggling with a consistent solution the following week. Latest models suggest mostly dry conditions with temps near seasonal norms early the following week, with a hint of a more significant snow event later in the week, but right now that is in the fairy tale category. Will see how things progress.

Elsewhere, cold and snow gripping much of the central and eastern U.S. this week. Snow was even reported in Jacksonville, FL this morning while the Great Lakes are getting buried in lake effect snow. Cold will moderate some this weekend, but temps will remain well below average for much of the country.

For other NFL games this weekend, on Saturday, Seattle looks cloudy with a chance for light rain and drizzle, temps in the upper 40's and south winds of 5-10 mph. New England Saturday night looks dry but cold. Temps in the teens with westerly winds of 10-20 mph bringing wind chill values below zero. On Sunday, Green Bay will be mostly cloudy with temps in the teens and westerly winds of 5-10 mph, so overall not too bad as compared to much of this week with temps below zero.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 1/10 Update

Bump for 1/11 update