wxgeek's weather-Weather Outlook Jan 19-29-Update 1/21

Update Wed Jan 21

Snow has enveloped most of eastern CO from the Divide east with heaviest snow south of Colorado Springs. Good upslope flow in place across eastern CO pushing snow into western suburbs and foothills. Latest reports show snow amounts mostly in the 1-4 inches range across the Metro area and foothills, with higher amounts south of the Palmer Divide. Models show snow will persist this afternoon and evening, and begin to diminish tonight after 9 pm. Web cams showing mostly wet roads in the Urban area, turning to ice and snow packed in the foothills where colder temps exist. Expect all roads to become snow packed by later this afternoon and evening, so a slow and slick commute today. Hopefully everyone was aware and has planned accordingly to safely make the drive home, but knowing human nature, expect possible delays due to accidents and slide offs in the usual spots. Roads should be in decent shape for the Thursday morning commute.

Looking ahead, dry weather is expected statewide through the coming weekend. Thursday temps will remain below seasonal norms, then warm to near seasonal norms Friday, and above seasonal norms Saturday and Sunday with some gusty westerly winds at times this weekend.

For next week, Monday looks dry and mild, then a chance for precip Tuesday and Wednesday as a system from the southwest moves across CO. Snow level looks to be around 8000-9000 ft with most precip along and west of the Divide, but some will be possible in the foothills and plains Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Break day on Thursday, then a colder system from the northwest will bring snow chances to most of CO next Friday and Saturday, clearing Sunday and remaining dry with near normal temps into the following week.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Wed Jan 21

Quick update for today. Models have continued to increase snow amounts past few runs. NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for foothills areas and a Winter Storm Warning for area south of the Palmer Divide. Believe foothills areas will receive 3-7 inches of snow today and areas along and south of the Palmer Divide could receive 5-10 inches of snow. Urban Corridor likely to see 2-5 inches of snow with heaviest amounts on west and south side of Metro area. Snow will increase through the day today with heaviest amounts this afternoon and evening, so expect a very difficult commute back up the hill today. Snow will wind down tonight after midnight with clearing by Thursday morning.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Tue Jan 20

Fairly nice day after a dusting of snow most areas overnight with a few inches reported in mountain areas. CO will be between systems today, with a stronger system on tap for tonight into Wednesday night. Two separate upper level troughs will combine over CO on Wednesday, one from west and one coming down from the north. CO will be under the influence of the northern system mostly, but precip will be enhanced across southern CO with influence from western system.

For the forecast, clouds and precip will move over CO tonight, mostly along the Divide and foothills south of I-70. Snow will increase in coverage and intensity during the day on Wednesday covering much of the state with heaviest snowfall being south of I-70. Snow will gradually come to an end Wednesday night with clearing conditions by Thursday morning. For snowfall amounts, mountains could see 2-6 inches, with heaviest amounts over the south central mountains. Foothills could see 2-5 inches with heaviest amounts south of I-70. Urban Corridor and plains could see 1-3 inches with heaviest amounts again south of I-70. Southeast plains could see up to 6 inches near the NM/OK border. For the commute, could start to be some slick areas Wednesday morning but that should be at the front end of system with heaviest snow to fall during the day on Wednesday, so expect the Wednesday afternoon/evening commute to be worse.

As this system exits CO, it will be a major winter storm for portions of northern NM as well as western TX and OK as well as northern TX on Thursday. Travel across this area will be very difficult.

Mostly sunny statewide on Thursday although temps look to remain below seasonal norms. Friday through Sunday look dry across CO with temps at or slightly above seasonal norms. Dry and mild pattern is expected to persist into early next week with temps above seasonal norms.

Next chance for precip looks to be Tuesday night into Wednesday across western CO with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Next chance looks to be next Friday into Saturday with snow possible statewide.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Mon Jan 19

Another pretty nice day across the state for January with temps above seasonal norms, and some gusty westerly winds at higher elevations. Cold front has begun to move through northeast CO with northeast winds and cooler temps behind front. Weak upper level disturbance will move over CO this afternoon and tonight which combined with front will being precip chances to much of CO. Best chances will be the northern and central mountains where 1-3 inches of snow will be possible. Foothills and plains may also see light precip from this evening into Tuesday morning with best chances north of I-70. Snow level this evening will be 6000-7000 ft so initial precip could fall as rain at lower elevations, but will lower to plains level by midnight. Still only expecting a dusting to an inch of snow most areas, perhaps up to 2 inches in northern foothills.

Conditions should dry out Tuesday but temps likely to stay below seasonal norms under mostly sunny skies. Another upper level trough will move down from the north late Tuesday, which will increase precip chances from Tuesday night into Wednesday night across much of the state, Best chances will be south of I-70 for this system, and highest south of US 50. Southern mountains could see 3-6 inches of snow, while foothills and plains could see another dusting to 2 inches of snow. Precip moves out of the state by Thursday morning with clearing skies during the day on Thursday as temps return to near seasonal norms. Friday through the weekend looks mostly dry statewide with temps near seasonal norms. Slight chance for some flurries across the northern mountains Saturday night into Sunday morning.

For next week, dry and mild to start the week with temps above seasonal norms, and some gusty westerly winds at times in the foothills. Models today bring a chance of precip back into CO next Thursday into next weekend. Precip would be mostly in the mountains with light amounts possible in the foothills. No major storms on the horizon. Longer range models keep things dry and mild into early February as upper ridge remains dominant from the West Coast to the Great Basin.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Mild and breezy day in Sunday will see a similar day on Monday with slightly cooler temps, but still above seasonal norms. Clouds will increase late in the afternoon ahead of a system that will move down from the northwest. Some snow will develop Monday evening into Monday night across the northern and central mountains. As cold front slips south on Tuesday, some snow will be possible over the foothills and plains, with best chances north of I-70. Mountains could see 1-3 inches while foothills and plains likely to see less than 1 inch. Precip will diminish by Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon, snow expected to increase in coverage mostly south of I-70 as weak upper level trough moves through CO. Southwest and south central mountains could see 2-6 inches, while foothill and plains likely to see less than 1 inch again. Temps will remain below seasonal norms Tuesday through Wednesday.

Precip moves out and temps warm back to near seasonal norms Thursday through Saturday. Next chance for precip would be this coming Sunday but only across the northern mountains.

Latest models suggest next week will be mostly dry and mild with temps at or above seasonal norms. Longer range models suggest the following weekend may see some precip across CO, but in general drier and warmer than normal conditions for most of the remainder of January.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 1/19 Update

Bump for 1/20 update

Bump for 1/21 Update

Bump for new 1/21 update