wxgeek's weather-Weather Outlook Feb 14-24-Update 2/16 Afternoon

- Update 12:45 pm

Radar indicating snow pushing up against foothills, and some convective elements are popping up as upper trough line is beginning to move south through CO. All this implies continued moderate to heavy snow at times this afternoon, especially in convective cells. Models indicate snow will taper off as upper trough moves south after 3-5 pm today, with snow ending later this evening between 8-11 pm. Many foothill areas now reporting over a foot of snow since Sunday morning, especially north of I-70. Roads will likely be snow and ice packed through the evening commute.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update 2/16
A slight break in the snow this morning, but upstream observations and models indicate snow will pick up again later this morning and afternoon as next impulse moves south over CO. An additional 2-6 inches expected for foothills and mountains, with 1-3 more inches for the Urban Corridor. Snow will begin to diminish this evening and end by midnight. Roads expected to remain ice and snow packed with some slush at lower elevations through the day into tonight. Crews should be able to get roads in decent shape for the Tuesday morning commute. By Tuesday, only a chance for flurries across higher terrain, but jet stream overhead will provide very strong northwest winds across the mountains and foothills with speeds of 20-45 mph and gusts to 60 mph during the day, which may cause blowing and drifting snow issues with recent fresh snow, so roads may have blowing snow issues in prone areas like South Park and along the base of the foothills as well as 285 going down.

Conditions improve Wednesday through Friday with mostly sunny skies and temps near to slightly above seasonal norms, although snow on the ground will limit temps a bit.

Next system poised to impact CO Friday night into possibly Monday. Models still trying to figure out the entire pattern, but CO could see snow through this entire period, so some areas could receive significant snowfall this weekend. More snow will be possible towards the middle of next week as well.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update 4:30 pm Sunday

Radar showing good upslope and precip all along the Front Range. Latest 18Z models indicating about 1 inch of liquid precip through Monday night, so foothills should see somewhere in the 6-14 inch range, with highest amounts in favored locations and amounts at the lower end of the range in the banana belt. Urban Corridor should see 3-8 inches, with highest amounts in higher areas west and south of Denver. Heaviest snowfall looks to be this afternoon into tonight, then a lull into Monday morning, with intensity picking up again Monday afternoon, then snow will diminish by Monday evening. Roads currently wet will turn to snow and ice overnight and remain slick Monday, so expect longer and slick commutes Monday.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for much of the Urban Corridor and foothills as well as mountains east of the Divide from Noon today through 6 pm Monday. Models today are much more robust with precip from this afternoon through Monday evening, so snow amounts much higher. Currently looks like 6-12 inches possible for the mountains, foothills and Palmer Divide, with 3-7 inches for the Urban Corridor. Cold front has moved south through eastern CO this morning, and upslope and snow will fill in later this morning and this afternoon. Snow level will begin at 6000-7000 ft but will lower to plains level by late this afternoon and evening. Latest models bring moderate to heavy snow across the region this afternoon into this evening with 2-6 inches possible by 9 pm tonight in the foothills, and snow rates of 1-2 inches per hour possible at times. Roads likely to be mostly wet this afternoon but will quickly change over to snow and ice packed by late afternoon and evening into tonight. Models suggest a slight break in intensity overnight, but light snow may persist much of the night. Snow will increase in intensity during the day on Monday again into Monday evening, with snow diminishing from north to south Monday night. Thus, commute on Monday for both morning and evening likely to be slow and slick. Conditions improve after midnight, so roads should be in decent shape Tuesday morning, but some slick spots may remain.

Tuesday will be partly cloudy and cool, with some flurries possible and temps remaining below seasonal norms.

By Wednesday we return to mostly sunny skies with temps near seasonal norms. Thursday and Friday should remain dry with temps at or slightly above seasonal norms. Next chance for precip will be Friday night into Sunday when several inches may be possible for the foothills and Urban Corridor. Slight break on Monday before more precip Monday night into Tuesday night. These system will come from the northwest so will be colder with all snow for CO.

Beyond that, medium range models suggest dry and mild conditions across CO until the following weekend, when models continue to suggest Pacific moisture will break through into the west coast and beyond, which translates to warmer systems with higher moisture content for CO.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Another dry and mild day statewide. Flow aloft more westerly which has promoted development of mountain wave along the front range, so some breezy conditions along the foothills with temps way above seasonal norms.

On Sunday, models uncertain whether to bring precip into CO. GFS brings some light precip into eastern CO Sunday afternoon, while NAM remains dry. Blend would bring a chance of precip but no accumulations would be expected with snow level 6000-7000 ft. Stronger system moves into CO on Monday. Latest models have delayed this system a bit, bringing precip into eastern CO late Monday morning and persisting into Monday evening. Precip looks to remain on the east side of the Divide with this system. Amounts looking similar, with 2-6 inches possible in the mountains east of the Divide, the foothills and Palmer Divide. Perhaps 1-3 inches possible for the Urban Corridor with highest amounts west and south of Denver. With latest forecast, drive down Monday morning should be ok, but return commute Monday afternoon/evening may be slick and slow. Snow should end by 9 pm to midnight Monday night.

Remainder of the week should be mild and dry with temps rising back above seasonal norms through by late in the week.

Next chance for precip will be next weekend as another system is forecast to move over CO. Models still vacillating on details, but looks like snow will be possible from Saturday into Sunday. Beyond that, more precip chances the following week as models begin to advertise a change in the global upper level pattern that would bring a deep upper trough along the west coast. Will have to wait and see if this actually transpires.

Major storm on the east coast taking shape and still forecast to be a winter hurricane. More systems forecast for next week, so expect travel disruptions.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 2/16 update

Bump for 2/17 update