wxgeek's weather-Cold and Snowy Period Ahead-Update 2/26

So, had enough winter fun yet ? More snow will grace CO this afternoon into tonight as another weak disturbance moves south across CO. Snow will increase this afternoon with periods of moderate snow this evening and tonight, then diminish by Friday morning. Just enough to mess up the evening commute once again unfortunately. Looks like 2-5 inches will be possible for mountain and foothill areas, with 1-3 inches possible along the Urban Corridor. Not much expected father east on the plains.

Friday should be a break day for most of the state, some lingering flurries in the morning and across the mountains, but temps will remain below seasonal norms.

Next system will be warmer west of the Divide and bring snow into western CO beginning Friday night. Areas west of the Divide will see nearly continuous snow from Friday night into Monday with snow level in the 6000-7000 ft range most of the weekend, with 2-4 feet possible in the southwest mountains, and 1-2 feet possible central and southern mountains. East of the Divide, cold air will mostly remain in place, with snow moving into the foothills and Urban Corridor Saturday afternoon and evening into Sunday morning. Periods of snow will be possible Sunday into Monday, but heaviest amounts will be Saturday into Sunday morning. Currently looks like another 3-7 inches will be possible from Saturday afternoon into Monday afternoon for the foothills, with 2-5 inches possible for the Urban Corridor. Lower elevations (below 6000 ft) could see some rain Sunday afternoon.

Next system moves into CO during the day on Tuesday with snow into Wednesday afternoon. Areas could see some moderate to heavy snow at times Tuesday afternoon and evening, so could be another tough commute next Tuesday. Snow looks to move out of the state Wednesday night. For amounts, mountains and foothills could see another 3-8 inches, with lesser amounts farther east. Models then suggest a break from winter weather from next Thursday into the middle of the following week with temps returning to seasonal norms or even slightly above.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Well winter is making a final stand in CO in late February. From today through next Wednesday, we will see lots of snow and temps well below seasonal norms.

For today, snow has developed in the mountains overnight and some on the northeast plains as well. Cold front will push south over eastern CO late this morning, and upslope flow and snow will develop behind it this afternoon. Snow becomes heavy at times this evening and tonight from the Divide to the Urban Corridor persisting into Thursday morning. Light snow will then persist much of the day Thursday with much colder temps, and could see some periods of moderate snow Thursday afternoon and evening as second surge moves south over CO. Majority of snow will fall from 3 pm today through 8 am Thursday. Roads will become slick this evening for the commute home, and become difficult overnight and into the Thursday morning commute, and could remain slick into Friday morning. NWS has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the foothills, and a Winter Weather Advisory for the mountains east of the Divide as well as the Urban Corridor. Models have raised snow amounts a bit, with the NAM showing the potential for heavy snow, while the GFS and Euro models portraying what is likely. Thus, snow amounts:

Northern and Central Mountains: 4-9 inches
Southwest Mountains: 1-4 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 5-12 inches (highest amounts north of I-70 and favored locations)
Banana Belt: 2-6 inches
Urban Corridor: 3-8 inches (highest amounts west and south of Metro area)
Plains: 1-3 inches

Light snow could persist into Friday morning, but any additional accumulation would be light. Slight break on Friday with some sun in the afternoon. Next system rolls into western CO Friday night with snow persisting west of the Divide through Monday, with little break before next system moves in. For eastern CO, snow moves into the area Saturday afternoon and periods of snow possible through Monday night. Heaviest snow looks to be Saturday night and then again Monday. Looks like an additional 4-9 inches possible for the foothills this weekend, with 2-4 feet possible in the mountains, especially southwest mountains.

Next system will move south into Co next Tuesday into Wednesday night. Several more inches will be possible for most of CO. Models then suggest we could see a break from winter weather from next Thursday into early the following week, before another cold system from the northwest moves into CO.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Nice day across the state today with mostly sunny skies and temps near seasonal norms. Enjoy the break. West to northwest winds will pick up this evening into Wednesday morning in the foothills with speeds in the 15-35 mph range with some higher gusts possible. This may cause some blowing and drifting of recent snow in prone areas. Next system will begin to impact northern and central mountains tonight with snow possible after midnight. Snow will persist in the mountains into Wednesday morning. A cold front will move south across eastern CO Wednesday morning, with upslope flow and colder temps behind. Snow will move south after Noon on Wednesday and become moderate to heavy by late afternoon and evening over the foothills and Urban Corridor. Some convective enhancement will be possible with snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour possible. Snow will persist overnight and begin to diminish Thursday morning. However, very cold air and a second impulse will likely keep light snow going most of the day on Thursday into Thursday night. Heaviest snow will occur from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning though. Thus commute could be a tough one Wednesday evening and Thursday morning. Hopefully everyone is becoming very proficient in winter driving by now. Snow amounts look like this:

Northern and Central Mountains: 4-10 inches
Southwest Mountains: 2-5 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 3-8 inches (heaviest amounts north of I-70)
Banana Belt: 2-5 inches
Urban Corridor: 1-4 inches (heaviest amounts west and south of Metro area)
Plains: trace to 2 inches

By Friday, southeast surface flow will keep low clouds and flurries possible much of the day, especially below 8000 ft. No additional accumulation expected with some sun in the afternoon, but temps remaining below seasonal norms.

Next system will move into western CO Friday night with heavy snow for the southwest and central mountains overnight. Snow will persist in the mountains Saturday and move east into eastern CO during the day on Saturday as cold front moves south across eastern CO. Some moderate to heavy snow possible in the foothills and Urban Corridor Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. On Sunday, models keep snow going over the mountains, but keep areas east of the Divide mostly dry, but some light snow will be possible in the foothills through Monday morning. Big snow for the southwest and central mountains with 2-5 feet possible. For the foothills, looks like another 3-8 inches possible this weekend.

Small break on Monday, then a rather potent looking system is forecast to move into CO Tuesday into Wednesday next week. If models have a handle on this, it could be the strongest system yet for eastern CO. Will have to see how things evolve, but stay tuned. a Drier and warmer period is then forecast into next weekend, but that could change.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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So final postmortem on last system indicates models did not actually do that bad, except for near our foothills. Urban Corridor and plains picked up 6-14 inches, and northern foothills 8-16 inches. Our foothills were mostly in the 4-12 inch range. Mountains picked up 1-3 feet most areas, with a whopping 84 inches past 72 hours outside Durango (former Purgatory resort).

For today, snow ending most areas except southwest mountains where snow will persist into Tuesday morning. Temps will remain well below seasonal norms today statewide. Most of CO will see a short break on Tuesday under mostly sunny skies and temps near seasonal norms.

By Wednesday, next system moving down from the northwest will begin to impact CO. Snow will move into northern CO early Wednesday morning, spreading south during the day. Snow looks to move south of I-70 by late morning into early afternoon. Snow could become moderate to heavy at times by Wednesday evening into early Wednesday night. Snow looks to diminish by Thursday evening, but models suggest light snow along with very cold temps could persist through much of Thursday, ending by Thursday evening. Vast majority of accumulation will occur from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. For snow amounts:

Northern and Central Mountains: 3-8 inches
Southwest Mountains: trace to 2 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 2-6 inches
Banana Belt: 1-4 inches
Urban Corridor: 1-4 inches
Plains: Trace to 2 inches

Commute back up Wednesday evening could become slick, and Thursday morning commute looks very likely to be slow and slick. Thursday afternoon/evening should be better.

On Friday, temps look to remain below seasonal norms and could be a mostly to partly cloudy day east of the Divide. On the west side, lingering flurries ahead of our next system. Over the weekend, potent upper level low will develop and move into CA Saturday and then slowly move east as an open upper trough across CO on Sunday. This system will bring heavy snow into western CO Friday night, especially southwest CO with snow level around 6000 ft. Snow gradually moves east during the day on Saturday, with a cold front moving down from the north that will bring upslope flow and snow to the foothills and Urban Corridor by late Saturday afternoon. Snow persists statewide Saturday night into Sunday evening. Mountains, especially southwest and central could see 2-4 feet of snow this weekend. For the foothills, early estimates look like another 3-7 inches. If models are correct, and they have been consistent with the weekend system, could be very tough travel along and west of the Divide.

The storm track appears to remain locked into next week, with another system set to impact CO next Tuesday and Wednesday, with several more inches of snow for most areas of the state. This system will bear watching as it could become a more significant system if it slows slightly. Beyond that, models suggest more storms would impact CO into mid March.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 2/24 update

Bump for 2/25 update

Bump for 2/26 update