wxgeek's weather-Forecast for the week ahead-Update 3/24

Breezy and dry day for eastern CO with a Red Flag Warning covering most areas from the foothills east across the plains. Temps running above seasonal norms with RH values below 15%, and northwest winds of 10-25 mph, thus the fire weather concerns. Second in a series of systems will move into western CO this evening and tonight bringing more snow to areas along and west of the Divide with snow level around 7000 ft tonight. Precip will move east on Wednesday into the foothills and adjacent plains in the afternoon and evening hours with snow level down to 5000-6000 ft. Latest models indicate snow amounts will remain on the light side for foothill areas, with anywhere from a dusting to perhaps 2 inches by Wednesday evening. May be hard for snow to stick to anything other than grassy surfaces, so roads likely to remain mostly wet for the evening commute, except possibly at higher elevations. Precip should end by Wednesday night. Mountain areas could see an additional 1-4 inches tonight through Wednesday afternoon, with highest amounts north of I-70.

Winds will remain breezy through Thursday, with Thursday looking mostly dry, but northerly winds of 15-35 mph may be possible with temps near seasonal norms. By Friday temps rise above seasonal norms and will continue above seasonal norms under mostly sunny skies into Saturday. Weak disturbance may increase clouds on Sunday while temps remain above seasonal norms, and a few afternoon showers will be possible, mostly across higher terrain with snow level above 10,000 ft. Even a few rumbles of thunder may be possible Sunday afternoon. Similar situation looks to persist into early next week with temps remaining above seasonal norms, and isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the mountains and foothills.

By Tuesday night a system passes over CO which will bring increased precip chances for most of the state with snow level down to 7000-8000 ft, so some light snow possible in the foothills Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Conditions clear and temps return to above seasonal norms next week Wednesday and Thursday.

Models still uncertain about next weekend, vacillating from mostly dry to the potential for more significant moisture. Later model runs bring some precip across CO next Friday through Saturday with snow level down to about 6000 ft. Will have to wait and see what future runs have to say. In general, March will end with well below average snowfall statewide, which has raised fire danger for this time of year. Hopefully April will provide close to normal moisture, if not, we will have serious fire concerns early in the season.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Showers beginning to move into western CO ahead of upper level trough that will move across the state tonight. Snow level currently above 10,000 ft as temps running above seasonal norms today with some breezy conditions. Precip will move east and increase in intensity this evening into tonight. Vast majority of precip will remain west of the Front Range Crest as flow aloft remains westerly, although a few showers may move across the foothills and I-25 corridor this evening and tonight. Snow level is expected to lower after midnight down to about 6000 ft by Tuesday morning, but any snow amounts east of the Front Range Crest not expected to be more than 1 inch, with many areas not seeing any snow. Bigger concern will be strong westerly winds that will develop tonight into Tuesday morning after upper trough and cold front pass. Wind speeds of 20-45 mph will be common with some gusts to 60 mph possible through about Noon on Tuesday. This has prompted fire weather concerns east of I-25 and could cause issues anywhere snow is absent.

Conditions should clear out Tuesday morning but remain breezy with temps near seasonal norms. Next wave is set to move into CO Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Precip moves ibnto western CO after about midnight on Tuesday night and spreads east during the day on Wednesday, This second surge has colder air, so snow level begins 7000-8000 ft Tuesday night, lowering to near 6000 ft Wednesday morning and down to around 5000 ft Wednesday evening. This system has better chances of providing accumulating snow in the foothills, with 1-3 inches possible at higher elevations from Wednesday about Noon through about midnight Wednesday night. Precip will move out of the area after midnight Wednesday night. Hard to tell whether any snow will stick to roads as warmer temps likely to melt most snow during daytime hours, but roads could become slick after sunset Wednesday evening/night.

Latest models today keep Thursday dry statewide with temps near seasoanl norms, and some breezy conditions, especially early Thursday. Conditions look to remain dry and mild Friday into Saturday with temps rising above seasoanl norms. There may be a chance for some afternoon showers Sunday and Monday but snow level would remain above 10,000 ft as temps remain above seasonal norms. Most of next week looks to remain dry with temps above seasonal norms through Thursday. Longer range models then suggest some changes may be in store towards the end of next week into next weekend as a potentially stronger system may move into CO, will have to wait and see how this evolves.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 3/24 update