wxgeek's weather-Dry/Warm Weekend, Some Precip Chances Mid Week-Update 4/11

Update 4/11


Beautiful weather across the state this weekend, lots of sun and temps above seasonal norms. Sunday temps may be a few degrees cooler than Saturday, but sstill quite nice for mid April. Monday should see similar conditions with temps again above seasonal norms, with only precip chances across the southwest mountains.

Conditions will begin to change by mid week. Tuesday will see more warm temps, but better chances for afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms from I-25 west, with best chances from the Divide west. Snow level will remain above 10,000 ft Tuesday. Bigger change will appear on Wednesday. Latest models bring a slower and more potent upper level system into CO Wednesday into Thursday. Precip moves into western CO Tuesday night, then spreads precip across eastern CO during the day on Wednesday with snow level lowering to near 6000 ft Wednesday. Models take the track of the upper level system from UT Wednesday into southwest CO Wednesday eveing and then into northeast NM Thursday and finally into west TX Friday. This track, if true, would allow for much greater precip across eastern CO. Models continue snow across most of CO Wednesday night into Thursday with snow level remaining between 5000 and 6000 ft, and continue snow Thursday night into Friday morning, then precip moves out of the state. Models have from 2 to 4 inches of liquid equivalent across much of eastern CO at this time. I expect these amounts to lower and become more refined early next week, but it is looking like the potential for a significant Spring snow event for much of CO next week. If model precip is anywhere close, foothills could see more than a foot of snow with the potential for 2 feet in favored areas. Of course, we will have to wait and see if models continue this track and the precip, but hopefully models are correct and we will see the biggest snow event of our season next week which will go a long way in reducing fire danger for a while. As always, time will tell.

Models then suggest decent weather next weekend with temps near seasonal norms. Mild and dry tearly the following week with more precip chances late that week into the weekend.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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It may have taken a little longer for Severe Weather season to get started this year, but it has made a presence this week across the central U.S. Severe weather threat today will stretch from the lower Mississippi Valley across the Southeast and up along the Atlantic Seaboard. Storms will not likely be as strong as yesterday, but isolated tornadoes will be possible today.

Across CO, mostly sunny day in store with temps slightly above seasonal norms. Chance for afternoon and evening showers, mostly from the Divide east to about I-25 with snow level 9000-10,000 ft.

Saturday looks to be the stellar weekend day with mostly sunny skies and temps 5-15 degrees above seasonal norms and light breezes. Chance for isolated afternoon and evening showers over the Southwest mountains, and also along the far eastern plains near the KS border, where there will be a slight chance for thunderstorms approaching severe limits. For Sunday, a weak cold front will skirt northern CO and lower temps slightly and increase winds a bit, but conditions look to remain dry statewide. Monday also looks dry and temps above seasonal norms.

Models have changed the forecast for next week. Instead of a lingering upper level trough, models the past 24 hours now have an progressive upper trough that will move through CO late Tuesday into Wednesday. Models bring a cold front into western CO with precip Tuesday afternoon/evening and move the front across CO Tuesday night. Snow level begins quite high Tuesday then quickly lowers to plains level behind front by Wednesday morning.Currently looks like majority of precip will fall along and west of the Divide with this system, with only light amounts along cold front Tuesday night across eastern CO with temps below seasonal norms Wednesday. Models then build upper ridge back across CO for the remainder of next week into next weekend with mostly dry conditions and temps back above seasonal norms. This pattern will keep fire danger in the moderate to high level. Green up is beginning to move to higher elevations which will help modify fire danger, but with absence of snow, forest floor and trees will remain quite dry.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 4/11 update