wxgeek's weather-Drier and Warmer Weather This Week-Update 5/13

Mostly cloudy day with majority of precip east of the I-25 corridor. Some showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible over the mountains and foothills through this evening, but heaviest precip will be over the plains today. As disturbance moves east, clouds will dissipate this evening into tonight. Temps will be below seasonal norms today due to extensive cloud cover.

Thursday should be mostly sunny statewide, with only isolated showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon and evening mostly over the mountains, perhaps extending into the foothills and Urban Corridor. Temps should be warmer, closer to seasonal norms with more sunshine.

By Friday, upper low will begin to move inland from the CA coast and increase precip chances across CO. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be from I-25 west and snow level looks to remain above 10,000 ft.

For the weekend, good chances for showers and thunderstorms statewide Saturday afternoon and evening. Snow level could lower to 8500-9500 ft, although no significant accumulations expected below 10,000 ft. Mountain areas could see several inches of snow above 10,000 ft. Temps will be below seasonal norms. On Sunday, lower precip chances with isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms mostly along and west of the Divide. Snow level around 9000-10,000 ft with temps remaining below seasonal norms.

For next week, current pattern will remain in place, with transient upper level troughs moving from the West Coast through CO. Monday looks similar to Sunday with best precip chances along and west of the Divide. As weak upper trough moves to our west, Monday night into Tuesday evening could see some heavy precip in widespread showers and thunderstorms, with snow level remaining above 10,000 ft. Slight break on Wednesday with only isolated afternoon and evening showers west of the Divide and warmer temps. Then good chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms Thursday through next weekend with temps near seasonal norms and snow level above 10,000 ft.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Mostly sunny start across CO, with some mountain wave clouds hanging along the Front Range. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will begin to form over the mountains this afternoon, and will move into the foothills and Urban Corridor this evening. Storm motion will be from the west southwest at 15-25 mph today and snow level will be above 10,000 ft.

For Wednesday, a weak upper trough and associated surge of sub-tropical moisture will increase cloud cover and precip chance over CO. Best chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be from the Divide east, with some heavy rain possible across portions of eastern CO. Storm motion expected to be from the southwest at 10-20 mph and snow level should remain above 10,000 ft.

Thursday should see lower precip chances statewide, with best chances across the High Country from the Divide west and snow level remaining above 10,000 ft.

During the week, upper level low from the Gulf of Alaska will drop down the West Coast and bring some much needed moisture to CA late in the week. As this system moves into the Great Basin on Friday, southerly flow aloft will bring enhanced moisture into CO and precip chances will increase statewide. Upper level trough slowly moves through CO this weekend, so precip chances will remain over the weekend along with cooler temps. Snow level could lower to 9000 ft at times this weekend, although little if any accumulation expected below 10,000 ft. Some storms could contain brief heavy rain and hail. Streams and rivers will remain at high levels with occasional precip along with snow runoff.

For next week, models persist in moving upper level lows and troughs along the West Coast and ejecting them across CO. This pattern will keep precip chances high most days next week, and temps near seasonal norms. Pattern looks to persist like this through the end of May.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Ah, finally a sunny day across the state. Just some fair weather cumulus (cumulus humulus) and temps climbing back to near seasonal norms after a chilly start. No precip expected statewide today, giving areas some much needed time to dry out after a soggy beginning to May. Most areas of the state have received from 1 to 3 inches of precip in May so far, with some areas receiving up to 6-8 inches. Hence, streams and rivers remain at very high levels but are expected to slowly recede this week.

On Tuesday, flow aloft will become southwesterly as another upper level low digs south along the West Coast. Thus, there will be a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, with best chances over the mountains and foothills, but showers could move out into adjacent plains. Snow level should remain above 10,000 ft. Better precip chances will exist statewide on Wednesday as a weak disturbance moves across the state, so many areas will receive measurable precip in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Lower precip chances will exist Thursday, with best chances over the mountains and foothills. Temps expected to remain at or slightly above seasonal norms Tuesday through Thursday.

By Friday, upper level low will begin to move northeast from southern CA and increase precip chances across CO. This event should not be anywhere near what we saw this past weekend, but some areas could see brief heavy showers and thunderstorms from Friday afternoon into Sunday evening. Snow level should mostly remain above 10,000 ft, but could lower to 9000 ft in heavier showers, but no accumulations expected below 10,000 ft. Temps likely to remain near seasonal norms over the weekend.

Models suggest long wave upper trough will remain along the West Coast through the end of May, which will keep precip chances active across CO as upper level lows and troughs move from CA across CO. Next week precip chances look good nearly every day, so ground will not have too much of a chance to dry out, and heavier showers will cause runoff and keep streams and rivers running at high levels along with continued snow melt. The good news is that fire danger looks to remain at low levels through the end of May.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Hope everyone was able to enjoy Mothers Day despite the cool weather, and honor the sacrifices and support that all the Mom's and Stepmom's have provided. You may not always feel appreciated, but know you are.

The coming week will feature more typical May weather across the state. Temps will warm back to near seasonal norms or above for the week ahead. For precip, little if any expected Monday. Tuesday through Thursday, isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible, forming over the mountains and drifting east across the foothills and plains. Snow level expected to remain above 10,000 ft.

As another upper trough digs along the West Coast this week, precip chances will increase Friday and Saturday as upper trough moves closer to CO. Models suggest precip chances will remain over CO for much of next week as well, but much more the typical afternoon and evening variety.

Flood concerns will persist into early this week as stream and river levels remain high from recent precip, and additional snow melt runs off. Levels should recede by mid to late in the week. However, with a healthy amount of snow still in the mountains now, as temps warm, snow runoff will keep streams and rivers running high.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 5/11 update

Bump for 5/13 update