wxgeek's weather-Precip chances for the week ahead-Update 6/10

Cloudy and wet start to the day today as some surprise precip moved into eastern CO. A stronger disturbance in western CO will move into eastern CO this afternoon and evening, which will create another round of showers and thunderstorms across the foothills and Urban Corridor and plains. Severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening on the plains, mostly north of I-70. Activity should die down after sunset across eastern CO, while precip may persist overnight across western CO.

Thursday continues to look wet and wild across CO. As upper trough moves into eastern UT and western CO Thursday, a cold front will slide south across eastern CO around Noon, which will create a very favorable environment for severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes from the foothills east. Large hail and very heavy rain will be possible across much of eastern CO Thursday afternoon and evening, and precip is expected to persist overnight into Friday morning. Snow level may lower to 11,000 to 12,000 ft Friday, so higher mountain areas could see some additional snow. Precip is expected to turn showery Friday afternoon and evening, with clearing overnight. Storm motion expected to be from the southwest on Thursday from 20-30 mph, and from the west at 15-25 mph Friday. No severe storms expected Friday as cooler air will be in place across eastern CO with temps well below seasonal norms. Models predict 1-3 inches of rain possible from Thursday afternoon to Saturday morning across much of CO, which could lead to localized flooding issues.

By the weekend, temps expected to warm back to near seasonal norms and precip will be more typical of June, with diurnal showers and thunderstorms dying down after sunset.

Models continue to suggest drier and warmer conditions next week, especially mid to late next week as temps expected to rise above seasonal norms and some breezy westerly winds may be present. More typical precip pattern may return next weekend in to the following week.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Mostly sunny and warm day across the state today, with temps well above seasonal norms. A rather interesting scenario is developing to our southwest. Moisture from now tropical depression Blanca in the northern Gulf of California is being spread over a large area of the Desert Southwest and into an upper level low off the coast of CA. The upper low off the CA coast is forecast to slowly move east over the next 72 hours, which will bring moisture from Blanca into CO.

Southwest CO should see some showers develop tonight and precip will increase over western CO during the day on Wednesday. Precip is expected to move into eastern CO by Wednesday afternoon and evening with showers and thunderstorms. A chance for some storms to become severe will exist across the eastern plains of CO Wednesday afternoon and evening, with large hail being the primary threat. Storm motion expected to be from the southwest at 10-20 mph.

On Thursday, we could see another wild weather day, especially east of the Divide. Upper trough will be over western CO with southwest flow aloft, while a cold front is expected to push into northeast CO Thursday afternoon/evening, which will create a very favorable shear profile for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes over eastern CO. Storms could initially develop from the foothills and Palmer Divide and move east into the Urban Corridor and plains. Large hail, heavy rain and tornadoes will all be possible, and activity could persist into the overnight hours. Precip may persist on Friday, but severe weather threat will be lower as cooler air will have moved into eastern CO. However, models are suggesting that 1-3 inches of rain will be possible from Wednesday afternoon into Friday afternoon, so areas that already have rivers and stream at high levels may see some additional flooding issues, as well as general localized flooding in areas with heavy downpours. Activity is expected to diminish Friday evening with clearing overnight most areas. Temps expected to be below seasonal norms Thursday and Friday. Storm motion Thursday expected to be from the southwest at 15-25 mph, but storms may have different motions Thursday evening as front moves into area, from the north or northwest.

For the weekend, upper trough lingers over CO which will create chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, but precip amounts and coverage should be less than Thursday and Friday, more typical of our usual summer pattern, and temps will warm back to near seasonal norms.

Models continue to suggest additional precip chances early next week, then warmer, drier and breezy weather mid to late next week, with isolated precip chances returning next weekend.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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