wxgeek's weather-Update 2/6

Update Sunday Feb 6

Wow, quite a bust. 10 inches on Conifer Mtn and still snowing. I guess if you get it really wrong, better to get more of what we need. Sorry all, it's been a tough year for snowfall forecasting.

Latest models keep light snow going in the foothills most of today, and NWS has a Winter Weather Advisory posted for 2-5 inches of additional accummulation today, which looks reasonable, but more likely an additional 1-3 inches from this morning til this evening. Snow should come to end end sometime this evening with dry and breezy weather for Monday with warmer temps. Arctic front still on tap to drop down Monday night. Timing now looks to be near midnight to 4 am from frontal passage. Snow will develop right behind front in strong upslope flow. I would guess now for 3-6 inches most foothill locations, but the way this year has gone, could be anywhere from an inch to 12. Bottom line is that the Tuesday commute will be pretty bad with heavy snow and winds all through the foothills and Plains. Snow should diminish by Tuesday afternoon/evening but cold temps will keep roads snow and ice packed. Arctic air will be in place Tuesday and Wednesday.

Long range models keep dry and warmer weather for the remainder of next week and into next weekend.

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I must say numerical model performance, which in turn affects human weather forecaster performance not doing so good this year with respect to snowfall totals. But, since that is the tool set we use, here we go. The current pattern of embedded disturbances in brisk northwest flow is always tough to predict timing and accumulation for snow, so not real high confidence in following forecast. general pattern has high confidence, but timing and snowfall aspects not so high.

Latest models suggest some light snow and flurries today into this evening. Accumulation from a dusting to an inch or two for the foothills, with more in the mountains west of the Divide. The next disturnace embedded in northwest flow aloft will move across CO tonight into Saturday. This will drop 3-7 inches of nsow in the mountains west of teh Divide on Saturday, and 1-3 inches in foothills areas, maybe 1-2 inches on the Plains. Breezy northwest to west winds will be prevalent from Friday night through Sunday as well, which may cause some blowing and drifting of snow, especially in prone areas like South Park. Snow flurries may continue on Sunday in the foothills, but not much if any additrional accumulation beyond a dusting to an inch expected. More snow for the higher mountains on Sunday, maybe 2-4 more inches.

Models are in fair agreement now about the next disturbance, which will be an arctic front for CO late in the day on Monday. Timing right now looks like Monday evening or night for the frontal passage, but that could change either way by 6-12 hours. Front will bring much colder temps and light snow across most of esatern CO Monday night through Tuesday, with snow ending Tuesday afternoon to night. With recent arctic fronts not producing much snow, would say this one should bring from 1-3 inches for most foothills areas, and 1-2 inches on the Plains. Arctic air mass looks to invade once again Monday night through Wednesday, but will not be as cold as last blast. Temps on Tuesday look like single digits, with low temps Tuesday night/Wednesday morning from 0 to -10. Temps Wednesday should be back into the upper teens to 20's.

Long range models now indicate a major upper level pattern change will take place late next week. The persistent upper ridge in the eastern Pacific will move east to the central to eastern US, and an upper trough will move into the eastern Pacific and western US. What this means for us is more snow west of the Divide, mostly dry east of the Divide with warmer temps. This pattern change looks to persist beginning late next week and into next weekend.

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It should finally warm up above zero and into the 20's today most foothill areas. Chance for flurries this afternoon and evening, but no accumulation beyond a light dusting expected. Back to seasonal temps for Friday through Sunday.

As the upper ridge remains locked in the eastern Pacific, we will remain under brisk northwest flow aloft, with embedded disturances moving down out of British Columbia. This will lead to a chance for snow in the mountains and foothills from Friday night through next Tuesday. Current models suggest majority of snow remains west of the Divide Friday and Saturday, then better chances for accumulating snow in the foothills and Plains Saturday night through Tuesday night. It does not look like more than a few inches will fall during this period, but will keep snow on the ground through the period, and could make for slick roads at times. The arctic air that was forecast earlier this week looks now to remain to our north, so only cool to cold temps expected from Monday through Wednesday, probably won't even make it below zero unless arctic air moves farther south than models currently forecast. We look to stay along the border between arctic and warmer air, which means a stationary frontal boundary will be across CO, which helps promote the snow chances for the Friday through Tuesday night period.

According to long range models, warmer and dry conditions will prevail late next week, with possible snow next weekend.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 2/4 update

Bump for 2/6 update!