wxgeek's weather-Dry, Warm and Breezy Update Feb 12

Update Sat Feb 12

Warm, Dry and Windy weather on tap for the next several days across much of CO. For the foothills, breezy today turning windy tonight as good cross mountains flow sets up a good mountain wave situation. Westerly wind speeds tonight likely in the 25-50 mph range with higher gusts possibe, especially north of I-70 and in normally prone areas. With recent snow, blowing and drifting could cause travel issues. Winds remain strong early Sunday morning and turn to breezy by Sunday afternoon. Next week starts off much the same as this weekend with temps 5-15 degrees above seasonal norms, and breezy and dry through Wednesday.

By Thursday, the upper ridge will have migrated far enough east to allow Pacific moisture to begin to affect western CO. Deep upper trough will set up along the West Coast and disturbances will eject northeast across CO by Thursday. This will bring mountain snows to areas west of the Divide, and cooler temps to all of CO by late Thursdsay into the weekend. The foothills may see some blow off snow Thursday through Sunday, but would not expect much if any accumulation east of the Front Range crest line. Long range models indicate a better chance for snow returning to the foothills by early next week as upper ridge moves along the East Coast and allows system to develop over the InterMountain West.

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Finally a month with above average snowfall. Already in February I have recorded 27 inches of snow on Conifer Mtn, with average around 16 inches. This brings the season total to 57 inches, which is still well below our average, but March and April are traditionally our snowiest months so hopefully we can continue to make ground towards our average snowfall. 2 years ago we were in about the same position and ended the season with 140 inches, or about 30 inches below average, but it took a 70 inch month in April to make it there, and then a very wet summer. Fire danger will really depend on how much snow we get in the March-May time frame, and how wet the summer monsson season is. If both are lacking in moisture, could be a very bad fire season, but still too early to get too concerned.

We should see seasonal temps the next few days under mostly sunny skies, with a warming trend into the weekend. We could see some gusty westerly winds Thursday night through Sunday, mostly in the overnight and early morning hours. With recent snow this could cause some blowing and drifting of snow. Temps by this weekend should be well above seasonal norms as upper ridge migrates eastward from the west coast into the central US. This pattern should keep CO mostly dry and mild through early next week. By the middle to latter part of next week Pacific storms could begin to bring snow to the mountains of CO west of the Divide, but remain dry and mild for the foothills and Plains.

Long range models suggest the upper ridge will remain across the central to eastern US for the next 7-14 days. This pattern is generally favorable for snow west of the Divide, but dry and mild east of the Divide. However, if the ridge moves farther east during this cycle, it could allow for Pacific storms to move far enough east to provide some snow to eastern CO.

Bump for Feb 12 update