wxgeeks weather-spring turning to winter-Update Feb 16

Update Wed feb 16

Warm and breezy conditions across CO today, and we should see our last Spring like day for a while. Large upper trough becoming well anchored along the West Coast now and pushing the upper ridge that brought us near record warmth farther east.

The first in a long series of systems will begin to affect western CO tonight, and persist through the day on Thursday. Snow will begin west of the Divide tonight and push east to the crest of the Font Range during the day on Thursday. NWS has hoisted a variety of winter warnings and advisories including a Blizzard Warning for the SW mountains. Travel west across CO tonight and Thu will be difficult, and expect delays and closures at times. For our foothills, mostly a high wind event tonight and Thursday with westerly winds in the 20-45 mph range. We may see a few flakes to a dusting on Thursday, but no significant accumulation expected. Temps will drop on Thursday as a cold front moves across the state during the day. Snow should end in the mountains by Thursday evening.

Friday will be mostly dry with seasonal temps. The next surge of Pacific moisture is on track to bring snow across western CO on Saturday with snow levels in the 7000-8000 ft range during the day. Once again, vast majority of snow will remain west of the Divide with some snow east to the Front Range crest. Snow will continue in the mountains Saturday night into Sunday, with snow levels dropping to 4000-5000 ft. Travel will remain difficult across the mountains this weekend. Mostly breezy with only some flurries expected across the foothills Saturday night and Sunday, no significant accumulation expected.

This pattern appears to remain locked in position for the next 7-14 days, which will bring Pacific storms into western CO every 24-48 hours. The vast majorty of snow will remain west opf the Divide through the middle of next week. Long range models indicate potentially better chances for snow in the foothills later next week, but will wait to see how that develops. In general, copious snow in the mountains, and breezy to windy dry conditions along the foothills with seasonal temps for near term future. This upper trough will bring winter weather to most of the western US west of the Divide, so any travel across this area coudl be difficult at times. Sierras, Cascades and Wasatch Ranges will receive 4-8 feet of snow over the next 7-10 days. Skiers in Co will also be very happy with the addition to our already abundant snowpack. This will also cause more adverse avalanche conditions for many mountain areas.

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This week will begin with more Spring like weather. Warm, dry and breezy conditions to persists through Wednesday, and then a big change towards more winter like coditions will take place. Monday night will see more gusty Chinook winds with speeds in the 20-45 mph range. Tuesday and Wednesday will be warm and breezy, with temps 10-15 degrees above seasonal norms.

By Wednesday night, a global upper level pattern change will begin to allow Pacific moisture into western CO. Upper level ridge will migrate into the eastern US by later this week and dig a large upper level trough along the West Coast. The first system to eject out of the upper trough will bring snow to western CO Wednesday night and persists into Thursday. This system will drag a cold front across eastern CO by late Thursday and bring a return to seasonal temps. This system could dump copious amounts of snow to the mountains west of the Divide, and NWS will likely issue a Winter Storm Watch/Warning for this later in the week. For the foothills, flow at the surface and aloft remain westerly which will limit any snowfall to a few flakes or a dusting on Thursday.

Another system will dig along the CA coast and eject over CO later this weekend bringing more snow to the mountains west of the Divide. This system looks to be warmer and will have snow levels in the 7000-8000 ft range. Once again, would not expect much more than a few flakes to a dusting this weekend for the foothills, along with more breezy conditions. Long range models suggest a better chance for snow for the foothills early next week as systems dig down from the northwest across CO, which provides some brief upslope for us. This pattern looks to persist through much of next week.

Bump for Feb 16 update