wxgeek's weather-Update Feb 26th

Update Sat Feb 26

Upper low currently over central CA will continue over SoCal later today and then head east across AZ and NM on Sunday. Latest models open the low up to an open wave on Sunday now and move it quickly east. This will diminsh our snow chances and totals from this system on Sunday.

Currently moderate snow in the CO mountains west of the Front Range crest will continue into this afternoon and then diminish this evening and tonight. Many areas have received 6-18 inches over the past 24 hours. Winter Storm Warnings in effect for mountain areas west of the Divide until 6 pm Saturday. In addition, very windy conditions will exist in the mountains and extend into the foothills during the day today, with wind speeds of 20-40 mph, and higher gusts at higher elevations. This will create blowing and drifting snow in the mountains, hampering travel.

Snow will increase over the mountains Sunday morning into the afternoon, but mostly light amounts of 3-6 inches. For the foothills, Sunday will start out mostly sunny but clouds will increase during the day, and northerly winds will increase by afternoon. Snow chances increase after noon on Sunday, with snow likely between 3 pm and 9 pm. Amounts look like 1-3 inches at this time, with most areas on the lower side of this range. Roads could become slick Sunday evening and night, and may still be some icy spots for the Monday morning commute.

For next week, gusty westerly winds possible Monday night, but mostly dry and mild conditions to persist through Thursday. Some mountains snow possible by Thursday into Friday, and a chance for snow across the foothills on Friday. Long range models indicate snow chances possible the following week.

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Update Thu Feb 24

Deep upper low currently centered off the WA coast will begin it's march south along the West Coast today and Friday. Many areas of coastal WA and OR have received 1-4 inches of snow in the past 24 hours. I saw this morning the lowest tropopause height (height of the lowest portion of our atmosphere where all weather is contained) I have ever seen over the US at Salem, OR, with the tropopause height of 18,000 ft. Usually tropopause heights this low are confined to the polar regions. This system is on track to bring snow down to 500-1000 ft across the CA coast tonight and Friday. The extent of this system is massive, with snow occurring across large parts of WA, OR, CA, MT, WY, ID, ND, SD, UT, NV and CO. Models have remained consistent with the track of this system bringing the upper low into AZ and NM this weekend.

Light snow will continue across the CO mountains today through Sunday, mostly west of the Divide. Some light snow again possible across the foothills and Plains this afternoon/evening, but minimal accumulations if any. Heavier snow for the mountains on tap for Friday into Saturday where various winter advisories are in place. Snow levels on Friday and Saturday likely to rise between 6000-7000 ft during daylight hours. For the foothills only a slight chance for light snow or flurries on Friday and Saturday, with little if any accumulation expected.

Models today are beginning to respond to the track of the upper low being in a favorable location to produce snow across eastern CO. As the upper low tracks across northern AZ and NM on Sunday, deep surface low develops over the southeast CO/TX Panhandle area, which creastes good upslope flow across much of northeast CO. Models still limit the upslope flow to about 10,000 ft, but are beginning to develop snow across northeast CO and the foothills Sunday afternoon and evening. Latest guidance suggest somewhere in the 2-4 inch range for snowfall in the foothills, and 1-2 inches over the Urban Corridor. This system still bears watching, as the trend in the models has been to increase snowfall for Sunday, and later runs could intensify the system and increrease snow amounts.

Next week still looking dry and mild across CO. As Spazcat posted this morning, severe weather season is upon us. Meteorological Spring begins March 1, and with that comes our onslought of thunderstorms and severe weather across the US. This typically starts across the more southern states in March, and moves northward as temps warm. The US is the proud top producer in the world of tornadoes, and we in CO always see our fair share, usually in the April-June period.

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Update Wed Feb 23

Large upper low currently affecting the Pacific Northwest with snow down to sea level. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for all of western WA and OR for 1-6 inches of snow through Thursday. Snow is expected in coastal areas of CA down to 500 ft on Friday. This system will drop south along the west coast through Saturday, then head east acrtoss AZ and NM on Sunday and Monday. Normally this pattern would set up a very good snow event for eastern CO, but the models are saying this will not happen with this system. A long period of unsettled weather associated with this very large system will affect western CO beginning tonight, and extend through Sunday. For the foothills and Plains, there is a chance for brief and light snow tonight, again on Friday evening/night, and again Saturday night into Sunday morning. All total, I would currently expect somewhere between a trace to 1-2 inches from this system for most foothill areas. The mountains west of the Divide will see significantly more snow. Heaviest mountain snow should come on Friday and Saturday, with many areas receiving 12-18 inches from this system, and up to 3 feet in some favored areas. Travel could be an issue across the CO mountains on Friday and Saturday.

Models keep an inverted surface trough present along the Front Range which keeps surface winds westerly and limits snow amounts. Even at higher levels we never see a good upslope flow, so a missed opportunity from this system. Long range models then keep CO mostly dry and mild all of next week, and suggest that pattern could continue into the following week as well. Latest seasonal guidance from the Climate prediction Center at NOAA predicts above normal temps and below average precip for most of eastern CO for the March through May period. Not good news, since we are currently on track to experience the driest winter in the foothills in the past 20-30 years. The current drought index is moderate for much of eastern CO, and that could move to extreme by May if we do not receive our usual Spring snow. Best to begin to prepare now for a potentially active fire season.

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Very pleasant weather over the state today, lots of sun and warm temps. Some strong westerly winds likely to develop along the foothills tonight with speeds in the 20-40 mph range, with some gusts to 50 mph in prone areas, mostly north of I-70. Wednesday will bring slightly cooler temps and a chance for light snow in the northern mountains, sunny and breezy in the foothills.

Very large and deep upper low will begin to march south along the West Coast, bringing a chance for snow to coastal areas of WA and OR including Seattle and Portland Wednesday and Thursday. Snow from this system will extend east across the northern Rockies and northern Plains Wednesday and Thursday as well, but mostly north of CO. Low is forecast to continue south into SoCal by Saturday, and then head east across AZ and NM on Sunday into Monday. This system will bring increased chances for snow to the CO mountains west of the Divide on Thursday and Friday, and will continue into the weekend. Heaviest mountain snow looks to be from Friday through Sunday morning, so travel could be difficult at times across the state.

For our foothills, we look to escape most of the snow from this system. An inverted surface trough is forecast to develop along the Front Range which keeps surface winds westerly along the foothills and severely limits our snow chances. Majority of snow will likely stay just west of the Front Range crest, with only some flurries or blow off snow reaching the foothills from Friday into Saturday. Best chances for snow for us looks to be on Sunday as the upper low is directly south of us and may provide a brief period of upslope. Snow amounts would still be very light, from a dusting to an inch or two at most.

In general, very dissapointing considering the strength of this system. Long range models then bring an upper ridge back into the Inter-Mountain region next week which would keep CO dry with above normal temps most of next week, and possible beyond.

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