wxgeeks weather-Update March 7th

Update Mon Mar 7

Well, as with most storms this year, models continue to decrease the intensity of our approaching system. Upper trough is open and not very inmpressive on latest model runs, and subsequently snowfall amounts not as high as previous forecasts. Still a good storm for the mountains, especially the southwest CO mountains. Snow still could be heavy at times this evening, but duration will be limited. Latest snow totals look like this:

Urban Corridor: 1-3 inches
Banana Belt foothill locations: 2-4 inches
Foothills: 4-8 inches

Heaviest snow looks like between 6 pm and 10 pm tonight, then only light snow overnight and into Tuesday. Snow will taper off by Tuesday afternoon. Some gusty westerly winds may develop Tuesday night, and with recent snow could cause considerable blowing and drifting of snow.

The remainder of this week looks dry and mild, with temps above seasonal norms by the end of the week. Slight chance for some precip this weekend, but models call for most of this to stay in the mountains west of the Divide.

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Update Sun Mar 6

Current batch of Pacific moisture bringing snow across CO. Mountains west of the Divide receiving the brunt, but light snow and showers have drifted east across the foothills and Plains. Snow may continue into tonight, but accumulations across the foothills from a half inch to an inch or two in most areas. We should see a break Monday morning before our next storm begins to impact the area. Snow levels tonight will be between 5500-6500 ft.

Latest models keep an open upper trough across CO on Monday afternoon into Tuesday, but generate good upper dynamics. Upper trough will pass along the CO/NM border from Monday afternoon into Tuesday afternoon, with a surface low developing in western CO Monday afternoon, and move into the OK panhandle by Tuesday afternoon. With a strong High pressure center over the Dakotas, this will bring moist easterly flow at the surface across eastern CO. Aloft, flow is mostly southerly to southeasterly, which is not ideal, but still favorable for snow. So the forecast looks something like this:

Snow will develop in western CO early Monday morning and spread across the mountains. Snow should begin in the foothills Monday afternoon and spread into the Urban Corridor by evening. Heaviest snow looks to be between 4 pm and midnight on Monday, but light snow will continue into Tuesday afternoon. Snow levels will start at 5500-6500 Monday afternoon, dropping to Plains level by Monday evening. NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the foothills from 5 pm Monday to 5 pm Tuesday for 7-12 inches of snow. My snow forecast looks like this:

Urban Corridor: 3-6 inches
Banana Belt foothill areas: 2-6 inches
Foothills: 6-12 inches with possibly higher amounts in favored areas

Looks like 75% of the snowfall will fall Monday evening and night, so travel could become quite difficult Monday evening and night. Tuesday morning commute also likely to be quite slow, with the evening commute better as snow tapers off Tuesday afternoon. Southerly to southeasterly winds could also be strong at times Monday afternoon into night, then turning northerly Tuesday.

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Well, weather folks have been taking some licks this year, but time to move on to the next forecast.....

There will be two system to affect CO over the next 72 hours. The first fairly weak system will move across CO Sunday, bringing snow to the mountains, mainly west of the Divide and north of I-70 during the day on Sunday. NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Sunday for 2-5 inches of snow in the mountains. Foothills may see some flurries or light snow late Sunday afternoon into evening, but would expect less than an inch or so east of the Front Range crest. Snow level between 6000-7000 ft on Sunday.

We then brace for our first possible big snowstorm of the season. Latest model guideance keeps the track in a favorable location across southern CO, but keeps the upper trough open versus a closed low, so the intensity has diminished a bit in the models, which is of some concern, as the trend this entire year has been to promote decent systems and wash them out as they get near. Models still generate quite a bit of snowfall however, with a large surface High pressure area over the northen Plains, and a surface low forming over southwest CO, keeps good easterly upslope flow going from Monday evening into Tuesday afternoon. Cold air also fills in from the north to keep all precipitation as snow from Monday night through Tuesday. Latest forecast would have snow start late Monday afternoon with snow level initially around 5500-6500 ft, with snow level lowering to Plains level by midnight. Snow could become heavy overnight Monday and into Tuesday morning. Snow likely to continue but lighten in intensity through Tuesday afternoon and end by evening. If current forecats holds, then commute on Tuesday could be very difficult. Depending on when snow begins Monday afternoon, Monday evening commute could be dealing with some slick roads as well. I expect a Winter Storm Warning will be issued by NWS on Sunday for the Monday afternoon to Tuesday afternoon period for most of northeast CO if the forecast stays on track. Assuming current forecast is accurate, I would expect 4-8 inches for the Plains, and 6-12 inches with higher amounts possible in favored locations across the foothills.

There is still concern that if the track moves farther north, or the system continues to decrease in intensity, then snowfall would be significantly reduced. I will continue to monitor the forecast models and keep everyone updated on this system.

Bump for March 6th update

bump for march 7th update