wxgeek's weather outlook-Update March 17

Update Thu Mar 17

Cold front has pushed south across CO and lies just along the Palmer Divide, with easterly and northerlhy winds north of the front, and southwest winds south of the front. Snow is currently confined to the northwest corner of the state, with the snow level around 7000-8000 ft. Latest models indicate system will slowly push east today and tonight. Vast majority of precip will remain north of a line from Grand Junction to Sterling, but some precip is likely to make it south to the Palmer Divide by early Friday morning. Heavy snow is likely overnight in the mountains west of the Divide and north of I-70, so travel west across CO tonight could be tough. For thr foothills, clouds will increase by tonight with a chance for precip between midnight and noon Friday. Snow level should be around 7500 ft at midnight, and 6000 ft by 6 am Friday morning. With such warm temps this week, would not expect any snow to stick to roads below 7000 ft, but could be some slick spots at higher elevations. Snow accummulation to be between 1/2 inch and 2 inches, with highest amounts at higher elevations and areas farther north. So the Friday morning commute could be a little slower than usual. All precip should end by noon on Friday, except for some lingering flurries in the high mountains.

The weekend should be dry and warm across the state. Southeast flow at the surface over the Plains, with southwest flow aloft, which means warmerst temps will be right along the foothills due to warm downsloping winds, which will increase fire danger in the lower foothills. Temps should be 5-10 deg above seasonal norms Saturday and Sunday with lots of sun.

Next Pacific system to affect CO on tap for Monday night into Tuesday. Snow should develop over the mountains west of the Divide Monday night with snow level 6000-7000 ft. Latest models keep all precip west of the Divide, with only cooler temps east of the Divide by Tuesday night into Wednesday. Upper ridge builds in to keep things warm, breezy and dry Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance for precip across CO would be Friday, and then again the following Sunday/Monday. None of these systems appear to be major snow makers for the foothills at this time, which would keep our March well below average snowfall and persist our very dry snow season.

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Update Wed Mar 16

Warm and windy weather on tap for Wednesday and Thursday, with Red Flag Warnings in place for much of eastern CO including our foothills. Near record warmth likely Wednesday and Thursday for the foothills and Plains. Pacific system that is currently affecting the West Coast will move east and bring snow to the CO mountains beginning Thursday morning west of the Divide. Snow level will begin between 8000-9000 ft and lower to 6000-7000 ft by Thursday evening. Winter Storm Warning in effect for 8-16 inches of snow from 6 am Thursday to 6 am Friday, so travel west across CO could be difficult at times on Thursday. For the foothills, system will push east to about the Front Range Crest by Thursday evening, with snow level between 8000-9000 ft. Latest models now suggest a better chance for light precip across the foothills Thursday night into Friday morning, with snow level between 7000-8000 ft. Still looks like light accumulations between a few flakes to an inch or two. Heavier amounts would be possible north of I-70, with modest rain possible across the northeast Plains Thursday night into Friday morning.

Weather dries out Friday and temps begin to rise. The weekend looks dry and breezy across most of CO, with temps once again above seasonal norms and more potential Red Flag weather. The next chance for precip for CO would be Monday night into Tuesday when another Pacific system moves across the area. Snow likely again for the mountains west of the Divide, but little if any precip expected east of the Divide. Upper ridge builds in for the remainder of next week bringing dry and warm conditions to most of CO.

Long range models are hinting at a more robust system next weekend, but still way to early to jump on that bandwagon.

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Update March 15
Temps and winds will be on the rise Wednesday and Thursday, leading to increased fire danger for the foothills and Plains. Temps likely to be 10-20 degrees above seasonal norms on Wednesday, with southwest winds increasing in the afternoon and overnight, with speeds in the 20-45 mph range. On Thursday, the mountains should see significant snow, especially west of the Divide and north of I-70 where a Winter Storm Watch is currently in effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening for 6-18 inches of snow. Snow level will begin between 8000-9000 ft Thursday morning lowering to 6000-7000 ft by Thursday evening. Snow will move east to the Front Range Crest by Thursday evening, but any snow east of that is questionable. For the foothills, more westerly winds on Thursday as a surface Low develops over northeast CO. Surface and aloft winds stay westerly across the foothills, so only a brief flurry is likely Thursday evening/night with less than 1/2 inch for areas that do see any snow.

Friday will be dry and cooler in the wake of the Thursday system. For the weekend, deep upper trough develops along the CA coast, bringing dry and warm southwesterly flow across CO, so fire dnager increases again this weekend. Models now eject this upper trough across CO next week Tuesday, but keep nearly all precip west of the Divide once again. Just more wind for our dry foothills. Models then bring an upper ridge across CO late next week which will keep temps well above average and precip non existent.

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After a brief dusting early this morning and some lingering flurries in the mountains, mostly dry tonight into Monday. Next disturbance to affect CO will pass to our north Monday night bringing a chance for light snow in the mountains and flurries to the foothills. Breezy conditions expected Monday in advance of this system with increased fire danger. Most precip will be confined to areas north of I-70, but some showers/flurries could affect our foothills. Any accummulation Monday night expected to be less than 1/2 inch. Snow level should be between 6500-7500 ft.

Next system to affect CO will be Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Brisk southwest flow will develop ahead of this next system which will pump temps and winds up Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect increased fire danger from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon. A cold front should move across the region Thursday afternoon bringing increased chances for showers and flurries into Friday morning. Snow level should be around 8000 ft Thursday afternoon, lowering to 6000 ft by Friday morning. Amounts likely to be less than 1-2 inches.

A deep upper trough will develop along the West Coast late next week. A short wave trough is forecast by models to eject out of this trough across CO next weekend, which would bring increased chances for rain and snow to CO. Precip would affect western CO on Saturday with snow levels between 7000-8000 ft, and then move east across eastern CO Saturday night into Sunday bringing cooler temps and chances for snow. However, amounts in the foothills and Plains look to be on the light side, so no major snow events currently in the extended forecast. Long range models do keep some chances for precip the following week.

Bump for March 15th update

Bump for March 16th update

Bump for March 17 update