wxgeek's weather-some snow for sunday-Update Apr 3

Update Sun Apr 3

Models in reasonable agreement this morning, although GFS as always produces more precip than the NAM/WRF. Cold front currently in northwest CO bringing snow to the northwest and noth central mountains. Cold front will push east and south today passing the foothills by late morning, with precip to follow behind front. Limited uplsope component to this system which will limit snow amounts. Looks like heaviest precip will occur in a band associated with frontal passage, so we could see a brief period of moderate to heavy snow between noon and 4 pm. Snow level 9000-10,000 ft at noon, lowering to 6000 ft by 5 pm, and down to Plains level by 7 pm. Models indicate light snow may continue tonight until about midnight to 3 am. Snow amounts from below still look good, but higher amounts will be confined to areas above 8000 ft.

More strong winds on tap for Monday night into Tuesday with warmer temps. Precip from Wednesday system looks minimal for the foothills, and snow level to remain quite high at 9000-10,000 ft, so rain for most areas.

Larger system may affect CO next weekend, but still too early to provide details.

For reference, we ended March with 70 inches of snow on Conifer Mtn, which is 58% of our normal snowfall to date. April is our snowiest month so hopefully we will receive enough moisture to limit fire danger, although it has already been a bad fire season. With such limited moisture, the "green up" may be short lived or relatively non-existent which will keep fire danger very high until monsoon rains arrive.

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Back from a very enjoyable excursion through AZ, NM and the 4 Corners area. Nice to be in 75-85 degree warmth for a short while, but looks like I will be returning to much cooler weather Sunday.

Current Pacific system is tracking into the Geat Basin and will begin to affect CO on Sunday. Snow will move into the northwest and north central mountains Sunday morning, and will be accompanied by strong nofrthwest winds which will cause travel to be quite difficult at times across CO Sunday, mostly north of I-70. A Winter Weather Advisory will be in effect from 3 am Sunday through midnight Sunday night for 7-12 inches of snow. This system will move east into the foothills by Sunday afternoon and make snow likely Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Cold front will pass late Sunday morning so temps will begin to drop after about noon. Snow level initially around 8000-9000 ft but will drop quickly after cold front passes. Snow level should be down to Plains level by Sunday evening. Heaviest snow for the foothills looks to be between 3 pm and 9 pm Sunday, with snow ending sometime after midnight. At this time snow totals looks to be 3-6 inches for most foothill locations, and 1-2 inches on the Plains. The other impact from this system will be very strong winds prior to the cold front passing. Southwest winds tonight will be in the 25-50 mph range with some stronger gusts along the foothills, turning more westerly to northwest Sunday but will remain strong through Sunday evening with speeds in the 20-45 mph range. Roads could become slick by late Sunday afternoon/evening as initial snow will likely melt with recent warm temps but then freeze as temps drop and additional snow falls. Roads could still be slick for the Monday morning commute.

More strong westerly winds and warmer temps for Monday night and Tuesday. Next chance for precip will be Wednesday as another Pacific system tracks across CO. This next system looks more impressive for the mountains west of the Divide, with only a chance for showers or flurries Wednesday evening/night across the foothills with snow level 9000-10,000 ft. Additional snow likely for the mountains west of the Divide on Thursday and Friday, but should not make it east of the Divide. Next chance for precip for the foothills would be next weekend.

bump for April 3 update