Climate Predictions - Let's See How Accurate They Are

Okay, so for those of you who think the climatologists are full of crap, here are the hurricane predictions for this year and the global temp predictions for this year and next - let's see how accurate and reliable they are. We'll check back next year.

Hurricanes:
http://www.news.colostate.edu/Release/5656

The CSU team now calls for 16 named storms instead of 17 forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30. Nine of those are expected to turn into hurricanes with five developing into major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

The hurricane forecast team's probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on U.S. soil:

- A 72 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2011 (the long-term average probability is 52 percent).

- A 48 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31 percent).

- A 47 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the long-term average is 30 percent).

The team also predicts a 61 percent chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean (the long-term average is 42 percent).

Global Temp Predictions:
http://climateprogress.org/2010/10/01/h ... rogress%29
October 1, 2010

Given the dominant effect of El Nino-La Nina on short-term temperature change and the usual lag of a few months between the Nino index and its effect on global temperature, it is unlikely that 2011 will reach a new global record temperature.

In contrast, it is likely that 2012 will reach a record high global temperature. Given the association of extreme weather and climate events with rising global temperature, the expectation of new record high temperatures in 2012 also suggests that the frequency and magnitude of extreme events could reach a high level in 2012. Extreme events include not only high temperatures, but also indirect effects of a warming atmosphere including the impact of higher temperature on extreme rainfall and droughts. The greater water vapor content of a warmer atmosphere allows larger rainfall anomalies and provides the fuel for stronger storms driven by latent heat.

Hansen's Info Release: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/ ... atures.pdf

Just FYI: Here's the graph of his previous predictions compared to actual observed values:
http://www.logicalscience.com/skeptic_a ... -work.html

And a further detailed explanation of the scenarios: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... ojections/