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FrumForum.com is a site edited by David Frum, dedicated to the modernization and renewal of the Republican party and the conservative movement. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_FrumI used to worry that Sarah Palin would be the Barry Goldwater of 2012. My bad. Paul Ryan is the Barry Goldwater of 2012.
The political dangers in the Ryan budget could have been predicted in advance. In fact, they were predicted in advance – and widely. Yet the GOP proceeded anyway, all but four members of the House putting themselves on record in favor.
Now we’re likely headed to the worst of all possible worlds. The GOP will run on a platform crafted to be maximally obnoxious to downscale voters. Some may hope that Tim Pawlenty’s biography may cushion the pain. Perhaps that’s right, at least as compared to Mitt Romney, who in the 2008 primaries did worst among Republicans earning less than $100,000 a year. And yes, Pawlenty is keeping his distance from the Ryan plan. But biography only takes you so far. The big issues of 2012 will be jobs and incomes in a nation still unrecovered from the catastrophe of 2008-2009. What does the GOP have to say to hard-pressed voters? Thus far the answer is: we offer Medicare cuts, Medicaid cuts, and tighter money aimed at raising the external value of the dollar.
No candidate, not even if he or she is born in a log cabin, would be able to sell that message to America’s working class.
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SS109 wrote: Or it could be a good cop/bad cop situation where one of the Republicans in the primary grabs the senior GOP vote by condemning the Paul Ryan plan. Rudy Guiliani is itching to run again and this would be a great way to get a toehold in states with high senior populations like Iowa and New Hampshire.
Or knowing Newt, he will condemn the Ryan plan one week and then endorse it on the weekend. Like he did with the Libyan intervention.
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■Ryan says his plan would not increase the debt. In fact, under his plan the public debt would increase from $10 trillion in 2011 to $16 trillion in 2021, by his own figures. That’s a slower increase than under President Barack Obama’s budget, but the debt would still rise substantially.
■He says his plan would “bring deficits below $1 trillion immediately, ending the era of trillion-dollar deficits.” True — but just barely. The 2012 deficit in his plan would be $995 billion, just shy of $1 trillion. It would drop to about $700 billion by 2013 — but that’s what the president’s budget projects, too.
■A GOP document defending Ryan’s plan wrongly claims that the budget "does not cut Medicaid" and that it "spends more on Medicaid each year than it does the previous year." That’s false. Ryan’s own projections call for slashing Medicaid below this year’s spending level for years to come.
■That GOP document says Democrats in Congress and Obama increased the deficit 259 percent since 2008, when it was $458 billion. That ignores the fact that President George Bush was in office in 2008. Obama inherited a $1.2 trillion deficit largely caused by declining revenues and Bush’s response to the economic crisis.
■Ryan says Obama’s proposed budget “commits seniors to bureaucratically rationed health care.” In fact, the new health care law states that the advisory board to which Ryan refers “shall not include any recommendation to ration health care.” Furthermore, the board members are to be primarily doctors, economists and other outside experts, not Washington bureaucrats.
■He says the “principles of tax reform” in his plan are “identical” to those in the bipartisan fiscal commission. That’s misleading. Both would close loopholes and reduce tax rates, but the commission would raise $785 billion in new tax revenue from 2012 to 2020 for debt reduction. Ryan’s plan is revenue neutral.
■He says Obama’s budget “imposes $1.5 trillion in tax increases on job creators and American families.” But, as we written before, about half of that total would come from increases scheduled under current law.
■He says that closing the Medicare prescription drug coverage gap would “increase prescription-drug prices for everyone.” But the Congressional Budget Office says out-of-pocket costs would be unaffected or lower for many.
■He claims the health care law doesn’t improve Medicare’s finances. Not true. It does, but experts worry some cost controls won’t be fully implemented. Furthermore, Ryan’s budget keeps in place some of those same cost controls.
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major bean wrote: There are no examples of how the Republican party has "pissed off" the voters and working class.
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