The Next Egyptian Revolution

An opportunity has presented itself in Egypt. For the people, this is a moment of democracy and freedom, but for the US, International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and their partners in Egypt, this is a political opening in which to force the same neoliberal policies cloaked in revolutionary rhetoric.

Trickle Up Economics
Hosni Mubarak presided over a wholesale privatization of the Egyptian economy. At the behest of the US, the IMF and World Bank, he weakened government regulations, public-private partnerships and toxic loan agreements. The United States Agency for International Development documents denationalization under Mubarak in their Privatization Coordination Support Unit quarterly review from spring 2002 and points to ERSAP (The Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment Program), which Mubarak implemented in 1991. Under this program, Mubarak initiated Public Law 203, which allowed the sale of state-owned enterprises to foreign interests. This continued for the next 20 years and resulted in unemployment, poverty and inflation.

With the privatization and liberalization of Egypt's economy came public-private partnerships, from which the military often benefited. In order to maintain its position of power and keep the cash flowing, Mubarak's regime tightened its grip on the population with increasingly egregious policies of repression. Under Mubarak, independent unions were outlawed. The Egyptian Trade Union Federation (ETUF), which had been established under Nasser, operated as an arm of the state. Union representatives were beholden to their positions of power and were slow to challenge the ETUF, so rank-and-file workers had to organize themselves.

Then, on April 6, 2008, the Textile Workers League of Ghazl el-Mahalla went on strike to demand an increase in the minimum wage as well as food allowances and better working conditions. The majority of Egyptians do not have computer access, but those who do are fanatical about it. Thousands of bloggers and social media enthusiasts began documenting corruption in the regime and called for an end to the repressive police state. The 25 January Revolution came from a popular and organized movement. It was a struggle over both economic and political freedom.

Negotiating With the Supreme Council of Armed Forces
When Mubarak left office, he entrusted former members of his Interior Ministry with running the country. SCAF (Supreme Council of Armed Forces) has been the de facto government and they have continued if not enhanced many of their pre-revolution policies of repression. All of the articles outlawing freedom of expression are still in place. SCAF instituted an anti-strike law, which criminalizes public assembly that disrupts stability. There's also an anti-thuggery law, which is broadly used to target protesters. SCAF is intent on preserving power by whatever means necessary and they're looking for assistance in doing it.

On May 27, the April 6 movement, 25 January Coalition, Youth Union, and other youth groups organized what they called the Second Rage Revolution in Tahrir Square. Tens of thousands came out in protest. There were several signs condemning the military and asking for the resignation of Tantawi, head of SCAF. One protester, a young man, a student at The American University in Cairo, said, "There hasn't been enough change. Mubarak was a symbol of all that's wrong with this country."

The 25 January was just the beginning of an ongoing revolution in Egypt.

With revolutions sweeping the Arab world and bubbling up across Europe, aging tyrants or discredited governments are doing their best to cling to power. It's hard to overexaggerate the importance of these events: the global political and economic status quo is in deep crisis. If pro-democracy or anti-austerity movements emerge victorious, they'll have an immediate problem to solve - how to pay for their vision of a better world. The experiences thus far in Egypt and Greece are proof enough that money matters. The wealthy nations holding the purse strings are still able to influence the unfolding of events from afar, subjecting humiliating conditions on those countries undergoing profound social change.

This strategy is being ruthlessly deployed in the Arab world. Take for example Egypt, where the US and Europe are quietly supporting the military dictatorship that replaced the dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak. Now, Mubarak's generals rule the country. The people of Egypt, however, still want real change, not a mere shuffling at the top; a strike wave and mass demonstrations are testing the power of the new military dictatorship.

A strike wave implies that Egyptians want better wages and working conditions; and economic opportunity was one of the central demands of the revolutionaries who toppled Mubarak. But revolutions tend to have a temporarily negative effect on a nation's economy. This is mainly because those who dominate the economy, the rich, do their best to sabotage any social change.

Understanding this dynamic, the rich G8 nations are doing their best to exploit it. Knowing that any governments that emerge from the Arab revolutions will be instantly cash starved, the G8 is dangling $20 billion with strings attached.

The toppling of dictators in the Arab world has immediately raised the question of, "What next?" The economic demands of working people cannot be satisfied while giant corporations dominate the economy, since higher wages mean lower corporate profits, while better social services require that the rich pay higher taxes. These fundamental conflicts lay just beneath the social upheavals all over the world, which came into maturity with the global recession and will continue to dominate social life for years to come. The outcome of this prolonged struggle will determine what type of society emerges from the political tumult and will meet either the demands of working people or serve the needs of rich investors and giant corporations.

There is a renewed sense of unity and purpose in Egypt. People have returned to Tahrir Square and are determined to save the revolution. By Friday, July 1, the Revolutionary Youth Coalition, April 6 Youth Movement, and various other groups had organized a solidarity demonstration in Tahrir Square named, "Friday of Retribution and Loyalty to the Martyrs."

For months, a seemingly disparate revolutionary movement had fallen into sectarian camps. The Constitution First camp argued that the military would impede any attempt at open and fair elections. The Elections First camp wanted stability and investment. Then, the memory of the martyrs reminded everyone of the common goal: revolution.

The Revolutionary Youth Coalition called for a protest and open sit-in starting July 8, which they termed "Revolution First." The April 6 Youth Movement put out a call and a Facebook page was launched for the Second Anger Revolution. The Egyptian Federation of Independent Unions also endorsed the action. Throughout the week, group after group began joining preparation demos in the square. The Muslim Brotherhood (MB) even declared its support, but said it would only join the protests and not the ongoing sit-in.

The demands varied, but everyone agreed on justice for the martyrs, an end to military trials of civilians, a purging of the ministries and the SCAF to end corruption, as well as the establishment of a minimum and maximum wage.

On the morning of Friday, July 8, tens of thousands went to the square. By the afternoon, there were hundreds of thousands. Waleed Rashed, spokesman for the April 6 Youth Movement tweeted, "We should have never left the square."

All parties called for a million-person march on Tuesday, July 12, and reiterated that they would not leave the square until their demands were met. During the 18-day uprising, people learned how to set up an encampment. Now, they're prepared for a long-term occupation.

Egypt has fired almost 600 top police officers as part of a clean up the discredited and widely unpopular police force. The decision, announced on Wednesday by Interior Minister Mansour el-Issawi, meets a key demand by protesters camping out at Cairo's central Tahrir Square.

El-Issawi said that the move was the biggest reshuffle in the history of the Egyptian police force.

Of those leaving, 37 are specifically accused of being involved in the killing of protesters during the January 25 uprising that ousted Hosni Mubarak, Egypt's former president, from power. The protesters want the police force to be purged of Mubarak loyalists and officers involved in the killing of nearly 900 protesters during the January 25 crackdown.

Nod to protesters
Egypt's state news agency also said on Wednesday that parliamentary elections that had been widely expected to be held in September will now take place a month or two later. The delay is seen as a nod to the demands of some of the protesters.

Many of the political parties that arose from the uprising wanted to have the vote delayed so they could compete more effectively against better prepared and financed parties like the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice party.